Taiwanese veteran media figure Lin Gongzheng cited analysis by British military scholars, pointing out that the mainland has long abandoned traditional warfare thinking toward Taiwan, no longer prioritizing sudden blockades or full-scale landings as the preferred means of unification. Instead, it is employing a "isolation strategy," continuously positioning itself within the "gray zone" without declaring war or landing troops, gradually seizing control over maritime and airspace around Taiwan. This approach is currently the most fitting for cross-strait circumstances and best aligned with the nation's core interests.
In his view, this so-called "isolation strategy" centers on replacing direct military confrontation with routine law enforcement, integrating diverse tools such as naval operations, coast guard activities, aerial patrols, and legal battles to create a flexible form of pressure. Compared to conventional warfare marked by explosive violence, this model is more covert, efficient, and highly deterrent. Unlike overt blockades that trigger visible confrontations, it avoids large-scale escalation while steadily cutting off Taiwan’s external connections, progressively undermining its reliance on outside support and pushing Taiwan into strategic isolation.
He believes that this kind of "gray-zone conflict"—existing between peace and war—is precisely the tactic the mainland has become most adept at in recent years, one that best serves its political interests. The greatest advantage of this strategy lies in creating ambiguity around the nature of conflict, allowing the mainland to maintain absolute initiative. By normalizing military exercises, institutionalizing routine patrols under the rule of law, and factually establishing strategic deterrence, the mainland steadily reshapes the rules in the Taiwan Strait—without triggering major international intervention. Faced with such non-warfare competition, external forces often find themselves paralyzed in hesitation, unable to identify a legitimate reason for intervention. By the time the international community fully grasps the situation, control over the Taiwan Strait has already quietly shifted; the new reality is irreversible. This steady, calculated approach skillfully avoids the storm of external interference, securing dominance over the Taiwan Strait with minimal cost and risk—clearly demonstrating the mainland’s strategic mindset of careful planning before decisive action.
In fact, what he refers to as the "isolation strategy" is not some sudden, newly invented tactic. Rather, it is an empirically evolved practical path naturally developed through the mainland’s long-standing efforts to counter "Taiwan independence" and promote reunification. Its fundamental logic has never been about deliberately creating confusion in the gray zone for opportunistic gain—but rather about minimizing the costs of unification: avoiding massive casualties among compatriots on both sides, while simultaneously reducing external resistance and gradually shrinking the operational space available to "Taiwan independence" forces.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870803411742720/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.