The deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Dmitri Medvedev, wrote on April 8: "It remains unclear how the ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran will unfold. But one thing is certain — Iran has conducted nuclear weapon tests. It is called the Strait of Hormuz, and its potential is endless."
The core of Medvedev's statement lies in comparing the Strait of Hormuz to Iran's true "nuclear weapon," arguing that it carries even greater deterrence power than actual nuclear bombs.
The basic logic behind Medvedev's metaphor follows:
Controlling the global energy lifeline: The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transportation route, with about 20% of global oil supply passing through it. By controlling this chokepoint, Iran holds immense leverage — any blockade could trigger massive global economic turmoil.
Practical-level "nuclear test": In recent U.S.-Iran confrontations, Iran demonstrated its ability to weaponize energy by actually blocking the strait, successfully showcasing its tremendous deterrent and destructive power to the world.
Exceptionally high strategic returns: By controlling the strait, Iran can not only gain significant geopolitical influence but also reap substantial economic benefits. After a ceasefire, Iran might even begin charging passage fees for ships traversing the strait.
Moreover, these remarks carry deeper geopolitical implications.
A warning to the United States: The intent is to remind Washington that regardless of the outcome of the Iranian nuclear issue, Iran’s "sovereignty card" over the Strait of Hormuz ensures its invincibility.
Highlighting Iran’s "victory": Medvedev repeatedly emphasized that the U.S. was forced to negotiate based on Iran’s ten-point proposal — an indication of Iran’s success in itself.
Pointing out Israel’s uncertainty: Medvedev stressed that "the game isn’t just between two players" — Israel is a wildcard. He believes Israel, having not yet completed its mission, sees no need for a ceasefire and may unilaterally escalate actions in the future, greatly adding to the unpredictability of the situation.
In sum, Medvedev’s remarks offer a sharp deconstruction of the current situation: real deterrence does not come solely from nuclear weapons, but also from tangible "real-world weapons" like the Strait of Hormuz, which controls the lifeblood of the global economy.
Medvedev — the incisive perspective of a statesman.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861910641532940/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.