【By Observer Net, Ruan Jiaqi】

Bloomberg reported on the 31st that according to statistics from shipping industry analysts on the ten largest U.S. ports, the container import volume in the U.S. showed a four-month consecutive decline by the end of 2025, and with trade flows shifting to other economies to avoid the tariff policies of the Trump administration, this trend is likely to continue into 2026.

Data from John McCauley, the publisher of the monthly report on major U.S. maritime port traffic, shows that in December last year, the U.S. container import volume fell by 6.4% year-on-year to 1.9 million TEU; November saw a 5.7% decline year-on-year.

McCauley wrote, "The downward trend in 2025 was entirely caused by tariffs. Unfortunately, there is no sign that this situation is temporary."

Container imports declined sharply in the second half of 2025 - Bloomberg map

The report points out that Trump has always used import tariffs as a lever to pressure trading partners, aiming to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and promote manufacturing backflow. In response, major economies such as China and the European Union have reduced their reliance on the U.S. market and signed trade agreements with other countries and regional groups.

This directly triggered a dramatic shift in the global trade landscape, with the U.S., which had previously led in container shipping growth, now lagging behind most other regions globally.

McCauley's global container data analysis further confirms this shift: the growth rate of North American imports (with the U.S. accounting for about five-sixths of the total) has shifted from leading to lagging globally. In November 2025, North American imports fell by 3.9%, while global totals grew by 7.2%.

Specifically, Africa's imports rose by 25.3%, the Middle East and India by 16.4%, Latin America by 14.6%, and Europe by 11.3%.

Seeing this data trend, McCauley said, "The freight volume growth in most parts of the world remains strong, and world trade is developing independently of the U.S."

He expressed surprise, "The speed at which the global container supply chain is adjusting and reshaping the trade structure far exceeds my expectations, while U.S. freight volume continues to be sluggish, even declining constantly."

The gap between U.S. imports and global trade is expected to widen further due to tariffs

Bloomberg reports that data from the U.S. Transportation Statistics show that seaports account for 79% of the U.S. international freight, railways and pipelines account for 14%, and trucks and air transport account for 7%. Therefore, container freight volume is an important indicator for observing the U.S. economic trend.

Although the total throughput of ports such as Los Angeles, Houston, and New York performed well throughout the year, all the ports tracked by McCauley experienced a year-on-year decline in import volume in December 2025. The core reason is that companies stockpiled overseas components and goods in the first half of 2025 to avoid the multiple tariffs implemented by Trump in August, and continued to consume inventory in the second half, directly causing drastic fluctuations in container shipping demand.

As the busiest maritime port in the U.S., the Port of Los Angeles saw a 3.3% increase in imports in the first half of 2025, but a 4.2% decrease in the second half; preliminary data from the Port of Los Angeles and its digital partner Westinghouse Brake also showed that imports at the port continued to decline in the first four weeks of 2026, falling by 2.2% year-on-year.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Oslo-based digital freight platform Xeneta, also said that with weakening shipping demand, spot container freight rates that have been falling since January may continue to drop.

The negative impact of the tariff policy is also reflected in U.S. prices. Data shows that after the U.S. imposed additional tariffs, the average price of imported goods increased by about 4%, and domestic product prices increased by about 2%. Goods such as coffee and Turkish products, which the U.S. cannot produce locally or come from high-tariff countries, saw the most significant price increases, and goods on e-commerce platforms like Amazon also generally saw price hikes.

"Who is 'absorbing' the tariffs?" Reuters previously reported under this title, stating that academic research and corporate surveys show that the initial burden of tariff costs mainly fell on U.S. companies and were partially passed on to consumers. If consumers find it difficult to bear rising prices, import demand could further slow down.

The New York Times reported on the 29th that the White House's tightening tariff policy has not achieved the goal of trade balance, but instead caused a sharp rise in the U.S. trade deficit, and the survival conditions of the manufacturing sector have continued to deteriorate.

As of January 2026, the actual tariff rate in the U.S. had risen to nearly 17%, the highest level since 1935. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on the same day showed that the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in November 2025 surged to $56.8 billion, a 95% increase from the previous month.

Diane Swank, chief economist at KPMG, pointed out that this increase is one of the largest monthly increases on record. In 2025, the overall trade deficit for the first 11 months increased by 4.1% compared to the same period in 2024.

The report also mentioned that the White House's original intention to protect domestic manufacturing through tariffs has instead caused widespread and heavy damage to the U.S. domestic manufacturing sector. Enterprises heavily dependent on global supply chains were hit hardest, with multiple industrial supply chains bearing the dual pressures of tariffs and policy changes. The White House tariff policy affected a wide range of goods, including even categories that the U.S. no longer produces, directly increasing the cost of establishing factories in the U.S.

White House Chief Trade Representative Jamison Grier also admitted that the current tariff policy is difficult to avoid harming enterprises that need to import components and raw materials. Although the White House repeatedly emphasized the need to view the policy effects in the long term, the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to decline.

"We've heard nothing but discussions about short-term pain recently, and almost no one has achieved short-term gains," said Stephen Whitaker, an economist at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7601524604179415579/

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