【By Observer News, Liu Bai】

For months, the European Union has been hoping to trade its China policy with the United States, but it ended up empty-handed. Now, Trump has finally responded, but the EU is not happy.

The Hong Kong English media, "South China Morning Post," analyzed on September 12 that EU officials have long used the "bait" of jointly formulating a China policy to please Trump, trying to get his continued support for Ukraine and punish Russia. Now the EU is in a dilemma.

After all, although Trump noticed this issue, the conditions he proposed are really hot: imposing tariffs as high as 100% on China and India.

Analysts generally doubt whether the EU can implement Trump's extreme demands. Some views believe that the EU lacks legal basis and political will to do so, and Trump is deliberately making an unrealistic demand, waiting for the EU to reject it, essentially not wanting to push forward the sanctions against Russia.

Some opinions also point out that the EU is reaping what it sowed, itself has long purchased Russian energy and fallen into a "double standard," but the EU may take further actions that break the bottom line in order to maintain American aid to Ukraine.

Mangalore, India: Mangalore Refinery, Visual China

"Trump is waiting for the EU to say 'No'"

Three diplomatic sources revealed that on the evening of the 10th, ambassadors from the 27 EU member states listened to EU sanctions envoy David O'Sullivan's report on his visit to the US this week.

This senior diplomat confirmed that Trump required the EU to impose 100% tariffs on China and India to prevent the two countries from purchasing Russian energy. He added that the US would take corresponding measures, but the premise is that Europe must act in tandem.

A source familiar with the matter told the Financial Times that the EU's "secondary sanctions" proposal is still in the "very early stage," and it is unlikely to be adopted unless the US also takes action against Chinese energy imports. Two other people who know about the preliminary negotiations said that any progress on the EU's "secondary sanctions" would require full support and coordination from the US.

Although EU sources said they were relieved that Trump finally showed interest in "punishing" Russia's actions against Ukraine, doubts about whether the EU could implement this requirement quickly emerged.

For months, the EU has been trying to get the US to focus on China issues, but now the EU is like a dog that has chased a car, unsure what to do next.

"Direct dialogue between the EU and the US on sanctions issues is good," said one diplomatic source, but like other sources, he thought Trump's tariff requirements were "unrealistic."

The report pointed out that unlike the US's increasingly divergent trade policies from global trade rules, the EU usually approaches the imposition of tariffs with caution.

When the US imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles last May, Canada quickly followed. But the EU continued with a time-consuming anti-subsidy investigation, and six months later, it finally determined a complex tariff structure ranging from 7.8% to 34.5%.

Agathe Demarais, a geoeconomics expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said that the US's request for the EU to tax China and India was "completely unrealistic... essentially proposing an impossible demand, waiting for the other side to say 'no.'"

"So this actually means that the Trump administration is making a statement that they will not advance the sanctions against Russia because they know the EU will not impose such tariffs," Demarais said.

"Embarrassing, the EU countries themselves are buying, and then sanctioning China and India?"

Despite this, as the conflict in Ukraine continues, the European financial burden remains, and the EU begins to think of other ways to impose sanctions.

Recently, the EU listed two Chinese financial institutions on the sanctions list on the grounds of involvement with Russia, even the US, which often imposes sanctions, did not take this measure.

China immediately took countermeasures. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce emphasized that the EU's move seriously violates international law and the basic principles of international relations, seriously infringes on the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, and causes serious negative impacts on Sino-European trade and financial cooperation. China firmly opposes this.

In her annual "State of the Union" speech on September 10, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that she would impose "more sanctions" on "third countries," raising expectations that the EU might soon take "secondary sanctions."

Von der Leyen, IC Photo

For years, Europe has opposed this approach, and many European companies have been victims of Washington's "long arm jurisdiction," experts suspect whether Europe can take similar measures.

"The EU does not even have the legal basis for taking such actions. They have neither the relevant authority nor the political will. This completely contradicts their usual philosophy," said Maria Shagina, a sanctions expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Traditionally, the US's "secondary sanctions" can even target transactions between third-country companies that have no relation to the US (such as not using US dollars for settlements).

"Therefore, strictly speaking, these transactions have no connection with the US, and the US sanctions targets' specific activities with third countries are only because they fit their political goals," Shagina explained.

Although Europe has historically opposed this approach, it has gradually moved towards it, even if it needs a reason involving Europe before taking action.

"As the war in Ukraine progresses, EU and UK sanctions have extended beyond the region. Anti-circumvention tools have been listed as available means," said Shagina. She referred to an EU measure passed two years ago that allows the EU to list a country as a whole under sanctions, but it has never been used yet.

What complicates the situation further is that Hungary and Slovakia, EU member states, are still importing Russian energy, making the EU's stance on sanctioning China and India for purchasing Russian energy awkward.

In the view of some analysts, Europe can only blame itself. For more than three years since the Ukraine conflict, EU countries have still been purchasing Russian energy products.

"It's our own problem... Trump just exposed Europe's double standards, that's it," said Alicia Garcia-Erreiro, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Societe Generale.

The Financial Times also noted on the 11th that EU officials clearly know that considering the impact on their own economy and possible Chinese retaliation, it would be extremely difficult to impose such high tariffs on China and India, two important trading partners.

Moreover, the EU is currently seeking closer relations with India and is expected to finalize a trade agreement with India in the coming weeks.

However, the EU hopes to persuade the US that similar pressure effects can be achieved through other measures, such as strengthening sanctions against Russian energy producers and bringing forward the deadline for EU member states to stop purchasing Russian oil and gas. The EU originally planned to gradually stop importing Russian energy by 2027.

Even so, the EU reached an imbalanced tariff and trade agreement with the US in July, indicating that in order to keep the US involved in Ukraine affairs, the EU is willing to step outside its comfort zone.

Janka Oter, an Asia expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that the next step the EU may need to take is to "cut off the flow of funds to Russia," even if this would affect Sino-European relations.

He said that if the EU refuses to take action, the subsequent situation will be hard to reverse. "We Europeans had better think about what feasible solutions there are."

China has repeatedly emphasized that China will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests. There is no winner in a tariff war, and coercion and pressure cannot solve the problem. China will resolutely safeguard its sovereignty, security, and development interests.

At the August 8 regular press conference of the Foreign Ministry, Spokesperson Guo Jia Kun reiterated that China's position on the issue has always been consistent and clear. China conducts normal economic and energy cooperation with countries including Russia, which is legitimate and proper. We will continue to take reasonable energy security measures based on our national interests.

This article is an exclusive work of Observer News. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7549039087005565478/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author and is welcome to express your attitude by clicking on the 【Up/Down】 buttons below.