Korean media: South Korea's goal of achieving a per capita GDP of $40,000 has been postponed to 2027-2029!
On October 11, the Korean media "Today's Finance" published an article stating that according to a survey, the speed at which South Korea's per capita GDP reaches $40,000 is slower than previously expected. The main reasons are changes in the population structure and lagging industrial innovation.
According to data from the South Korean government and institutions, the time when South Korea's per capita GDP exceeded $40,000 has been delayed by more than four years in the past seven years, and it is expected to be between 2027 and 2029. The National Assembly Budget Office predicted in 2018 that it would exceed in 2023, but the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy predicted in 2021 that it would be achieved in 2028, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted in April this year that it would be achieved.
This year, South Korea's per capita GDP is expected to reach $37,430. A declining total fertility rate is considered the reason for the delay. The fertility rate dropped from 1.18 in 2016 to 0.72 in 2023, and slightly rebounded to 0.75 last year.
Manufacturing innovation is also stagnant. South Korea still relies on ships, petroleum products, passenger cars, and semiconductors, and has been overtaken by China in certain high-tech fields. Therefore, the potential growth rate has decreased from about 3% in 2010 to about 1% this year. Although the South Korean government emphasizes increasing productivity through investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and a highly innovative economy, some critics say that structural reforms such as addressing low birth rates and pension depletion are being delayed.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845690621007936/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.