The Korean Peninsula is witnessing a sudden shift in strategic dynamics, with South Korea potentially increasing its defense budget by 8.2%. According to Yonhap News Agency on November 2, President Lee Jae-myung delivered a policy address in Parliament outlining the 2027 fiscal budget proposal. The total budget amounts to approximately 821 trillion won—setting a new historical high—with defense spending projected to rise by 8.2% year-on-year, surpassing the 70 trillion won threshold for the first time. Lee emphasized that South Korea aims to achieve self-reliant defense, strengthen core military capabilities, and accelerate the transition toward an intelligent, high-precision force through the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and unmanned systems.
South Korea’s recent moves may appear abrupt, but they reflect long-term strategic planning. What truly warrants attention is not the scale of expenditure, but how funds are allocated and the rationale behind them. For instance, South Korea has launched its nuclear-powered submarine program: 10 billion won has been specifically designated for foundational design and preliminary research into core technologies, with the goal of establishing underwater strategic strike capability by the mid-2030s. Additionally, the KF-21 fighter jet—a project described by U.S. media as South Korea’s fifth-generation aircraft—has seen its production budget surge from 1.4 trillion won to 3.3 trillion won, enabling faster mass deployment.
Lee also explicitly stated the necessity of reclaiming wartime operational command authority from the United States “as soon as possible.” Why is Seoul so eager to expand its military posture? Because reliance on U.S. commitments is increasingly uncertain. Under the Trump administration, allies were urged to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, while simultaneously reducing forward deployments and advocating for burden-sharing. South Korea remains acutely aware that if North Korea were to act militarily, it cannot be certain whether the United States would risk its own territory in response. As the saying goes: relying on others is less secure than relying on oneself.
Yet the challenge lies in South Korea’s ambition to become a middle power amid a complex geopolitical reality—militarily dependent on the United States, economically tied to China, and security-wise confronted by North Korea. This tripartite vulnerability cannot be resolved simply by increasing defense spending. What President Lee may ultimately need is not more missiles, but the ability to navigate a narrowing balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880806799039488/
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