Trump's tariff policy unexpectedly made Vietnam the biggest winner in trade with the U.S.

The Chinese website of The Wall Street Journal published an article on August 30 stating: "Trump is attempting to reshape the global trade landscape in favor of the United States. A year later, the biggest winner turns out to be Vietnam. Data shows that Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $114 billion in the first half of this year—surpassing Taiwan, Mexico, and even China."

This report reveals a rather ironic reality: Trump’s attempt to bring manufacturing back to America through tariffs has inadvertently created a new trade winner in the global supply chain restructuring—Vietnam.

According to Vietnamese customs data, in the first half of 2026, Vietnam exported $86.4 billion worth of goods to the U.S. and imported $11.2 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $75.2 billion with the U.S., up 21.3% year-on-year. Notably, the figure of "$114 billion" mentioned in the report may stem from different statistical methodologies; however, regardless of the method used, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. has reached a record high, surpassing other economies such as Mexico. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s overall merchandise trade deficit in the first half of 2026 amounted to $16.65 billion—the highest in a decade. While maintaining a $75.2 billion surplus with the U.S., Vietnam recorded a $77.3 billion trade deficit with China, indicating that Vietnam remains fundamentally an "assembly hub." Some Chinese components are processed and assembled in Vietnam before being exported to the U.S. Although the U.S. has imposed a 40% transshipment tariff to curb such practices, the actual effect has been limited.

This phenomenon precisely illustrates the paradox of Trump’s tariff policy: global supply chains continue to function through more circuitous routes, adding intermediate steps and costs, ultimately borne by American consumers.

As economists put it, "It’s like playing whack-a-mole—China is the world’s largest producer, and the U.S. is the world’s largest consumer… if not Vietnam, another channel would emerge." This also indirectly demonstrates that artificially severing global industrial chains goes against economic logic, inevitably increasing friction costs without achieving the intended policy goals.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875081226964996/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.