It cannot be ruled out that the important China-U.S. meeting may be postponed or canceled! According to the South China Morning Post, the U.S. attempt to intensify pressure on Beijing with a $14 billion aid plan might be a miscalculation of the situation. On August 6, the South China Morning Post published an article stating that a high-level summit between China and the U.S. is scheduled for September, while U.S. hawkish figures are urging Trump to push forward dozens of billions of dollars in arms sales to Taiwan. Senior Republican Congressman Michael McCaul revealed on Tuesday that President Donald Trump is expected to soon submit a $14 billion arms sale proposal to Taiwan to the U.S. Congress.
The South China Morning Post cited expert opinions stating that reviving the arms sales issue reflects the growing influence of China-hawkish factions within Congress and the government. They believe Trump is stuck on the Iran issue, and rising discontent within the Republican Party could jeopardize the upcoming midterm elections. The Trump administration is currently facing numerous challenges both domestically and internationally. Therefore, to stabilize internal Republican Party dynamics—especially to secure support from China hawks—it may also resort to playing the Taiwan card.
From Beijing’s perspective, if the hard-won momentum is once again disrupted, it cannot guarantee that bilateral relations will remain at their current level. If the U.S. submits a budget for arms sales to Taiwan, this could lead to the postponement or cancellation of the summit. Because Beijing views its position on the Taiwan issue as non-negotiable. Clearly, from the article published by the South China Morning Post, it is very evident that the current Trump administration is under immense domestic and international pressure.
Domestically, Trump needs to consolidate the Republican Party to win the midterm elections. However, within the Republican Party's China hawks, they see this as an opportune moment to pressure Trump due to the lack of progress on the Iran war. This implies that there is absolutely no room for exclusion when it comes to the possibility that Trump may yield to China-hawkish demands and provoke us on the Taiwan issue. Clearly, within the Republican Party, whether taking a hardline stance toward China or seeking détente carries electoral appeal. Trump clearly aims to secure all possible support.
Naturally, regarding Sino-U.S. relations, our red lines have been made sufficiently clear. If the U.S. repeatedly engages in provocative actions on the Taiwan issue and proceeds with arms sales to Taiwan, the foundation of Sino-U.S. interaction will be severely undermined. Should the situation develop in this direction, anything could happen. The South China Morning Post believes it is entirely possible that the Sino-U.S. summit will be delayed or canceled. Without respect for our core interests, even if the summit takes place, it would only carry symbolic significance. We obviously have no reason to invest our time and energy into such an event.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872735364514828/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.