[Text/Observer Network Liu Chenghui]
In a commentary article published in The New York Times on May 19, Kyle Chan, a researcher at Princeton University who focuses on China's industrial policies, pointed out that the various policies launched by Trump upon his return to the White House are accelerating the formation of China's dominance in the world pattern. Trump has not yet realized that China is surpassing the United States," Chan wrote.
The author believes that the shortsighted policy of the Trump administration centered on the tariff war is undermining the foundation of American innovation and damaging the country's long-term competitiveness. Meanwhile, China is promoting progress in key future industries such as new energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence through its state-led long-term strategy, forming a virtuous cycle of cross-domain technological development.
The article warns that if the U.S. government does not change its policies, it will face multiple crises including the loss of high-end manufacturing and persistently high inflation, ultimately becoming a technological island.
The author mentioned that for many years, theorists have assumed the arrival of the "Chinese Century": in this world, China will eventually use its huge economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reshape a global power structure centered around China.
This century may have already begun. When future historians look back, they are likely to consider the first few months of Trump's second term as a watershed moment for China overtaking the United States.
On May 16, at the Beijing Robotics Innovation Center, a humanoid robot named "Walker" held two components. Visual China
China and the U.S. previously reached a trade agreement to reduce tariffs within 90 days. The article argues that Trump's impatience to declare victory exposes the core dilemma of the Trump administration and the entire United States — when facing greater competition with China, they are shortsightedly obsessed with insignificant tactical struggles.
Moreover, Trump is destroying the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are jeopardizing American companies' access to global markets and supply chains; he is drastically cutting public research funds, weakening American universities, forcing talented researchers to consider moving to other countries; he wants to scale back technology projects like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, and weaken America's soft power across large regions globally.
China's development trajectory, however, is quite different.
China is leading globally in multiple industries including steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar panels, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, pharmaceutical raw materials, and high-speed rail. It is expected that by 2030, China will account for 45% of global manufacturing. The Chinese government is focusing on the future: In March this year, China announced the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund, leveraging nearly 1 trillion yuan in local and social capital, for long-term investment in frontier technologies such as quantum computing and robotics, and significantly increasing public research budgets.
The results of China's approach are shocking.
When China's startup DeepSeek introduced its artificial intelligence chatbot earlier this year, many Americans suddenly realized that China could compete in the field of artificial intelligence. But similar "Sputnik moments" have occurred frequently.
The electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, once mocked by Musk, a Trump ally, sold more vehicles globally than Tesla last year, is building new factories around the world, and its market value surpassed the combined total of Ford, General Motors, and Volkswagen in March; China's drug development is advancing rapidly, especially in cancer treatment; in 2023, China installed more industrial robots than all other regions worldwide combined.
In the strategic sector of semiconductors, China's independent supply chain is taking shape. The key lies in the fact that breakthroughs in many related technologies are forming a virtuous cycle, reinforcing progress in different industries.
However, Trump is still concerned about his tariffs. He even seems unaware of the seriousness of the threat posed by China.
Before the U.S.-China tariff agreement was reached, Trump frivolously responded to concerns that tariffs might lead to empty shelves in American retail stores, suggesting that Americans "buy fewer dolls." This outdated perception of China as merely a toy factory is seriously out of touch with reality.
On April 24, 2025, at the Shanghai Auto Show, overseas buyers focused on Chinese-made cars. Visual China
America needs to realize that neither tariffs nor other trade pressures will make China abandon its effective state-led development model and suddenly switch to what Americans call "fair" industrial and trade policies. Instead, China is focusing on achieving dominance in high-tech industries with the concentration of the Manhattan Project.
The author noticed that over the years, skeptics have always predicted that China would inevitably decline after reaching its peak, but each prediction has proven wrong. China's unique state-led system demonstrates strong strategic resilience, capable of flexibly adjusting policies, allocating resources, and focusing on long-term national strength construction. This advantage cannot be denied.
Trump's blind obsession with short-term expedients like tariffs is actively undermining American advantages while only accelerating the arrival of China's dominance in the world.
The author finally warned that if the current situation continues, China will fully control high-end manufacturing from car chips to MRI equipment and commercial aircraft; the AI hegemony struggle will no longer be between China and the U.S., but evolve into an "internal war" between high-tech cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou in China; factories funded by Chinese capital around the world will restructure supply chains centered on China, establishing China's status as a technological and economic superpower.
By contrast, the U.S. may become a severely declining country. Companies behind tariff barriers will be limited to domestic markets, leading to a loss of international market share and reduced profitability, shrinking R&D investments continuously. Due to higher manufacturing costs in the U.S., American consumers will have to buy domestically produced goods that are inferior in quality but more expensive than global products. Wage-earning families will face rising inflation and stagnant incomes. Traditional high-value industries such as automobile manufacturing and pharmaceuticals have already been lost to China; future important industries will follow suit. Imagine the scenes of Detroit or Cleveland across the nation.
The author urgently calls for the U.S. to increase R&D investments, support academic, scientific, and corporate innovation; deepen global economic ties, and create an environment attractive to international talent and capital.
"However, the Trump administration is going against these efforts in all these areas," the article concluded. "The choice of whether this century belongs to China or the U.S. is still in our hands, but the time window for changing course is closing rapidly."
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506069074061885992/
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