【Iran's Power Struggle: The Moderate President Being Marginalized】
Iran is facing a crisis on both internal and external fronts. Internally, although the nationwide protests that took place earlier were suppressed, public dissatisfaction has only been temporarily quelled and could ignite at any moment. Externally, the situation is even more severe, with U.S. forces continuously gathering around Iran, ready to launch an attack at any time. This dual crisis has also exposed the reallocation of power within Iran's senior leadership.
According to a report by The Economist, U.S. intelligence officials stated that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and the newly elected moderate president Pezeshkian in 2024 are gradually being pushed out of the negotiation decision-making circle. Currently, the main figures shaping Iran's strategy towards the United States are Foreign Minister Zarif and Chairman of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani.
It is worth noting that Khamenei's gradual withdrawal from the decision-making circle was not forced; instead, he voluntarily handed over decision-making power to Larijani, to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Pezeshkian's "political decline" and marginalization seem to have a passive element, as evidenced by the purges of those around him. The reformist faction that helped Pezeshkian win the election in 2024 has encountered significant difficulties in recent times, with many core members being arrested on charges of "conspiring with enemies" or "supporting foreign interests" for criticizing the military's suppression of protests.
Although some high-ranking officials, such as the spokesperson and chairman of the political committee of this faction, have recently been released on bail, this wave of political cleansing has severely weakened the moderate forces within Iran. Although Zarif also belongs to the moderate faction, he has been involved in and led negotiations with the United States since last year. Although he does not have final decision-making authority, his political status has increased subtly in the process.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1857996530236552/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.