With setbacks in the Middle East, Trump is increasingly considering the possibility of a military adventure in Cuba.

According to CNN, on the 16th, Trump again threatened Cuba during a press conference at the White House, claiming he believed he might "honorably occupy Cuba".

Trump is just someone who can't solve a problem, so he moves on to the next one.

At the same time, US Secretary of State Rubio also said that Cuba's allowance of exiles to return and invest "is still far from enough," and its leader must be replaced.

Additionally, The New York Times cited four informed sources, stating that the Trump administration has told Cuba that if it wants progress in negotiations, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel must step down.

One of the informed sources said that some officials in the Trump administration believe that toppling the Cuban head of state would "prompt" economic reforms in the country, but these officials think Díaz-Canel is unlikely to support such reforms because "he is a hardliner."

Of course, another informed source more directly admitted the real intention behind Trump's extreme pressure on Cuba: "Removing the top leader of Cuba would bring Trump a symbolic victory, allowing him to tell the American people that he has once again overthrown a leftist leader who had long opposed the United States, just as he did in Venezuela."

If attacking Iran was instigated by Israel, then attacking Cuba must have been orchestrated by Rubio.

It is worth noting that since March 6, Trump began to mention "Cuba" more frequently in public — this day coincided with the first week of the US-Israeli air strike on Iran. At that time, Trump and his makeshift team may have realized that even killing Khamenei would not truly overthrow the Iranian regime.

Since the "hard nut" in the Middle East couldn't be cracked, Trump could only pick another "soft target" to regain his "winning feeling." Therefore, it is foreseeable that the greater the setback Trump faces in the Middle East, the higher the likelihood he will create a "quick victory" in Cuba to divert attention and boost his approval ratings.

In short, whether the Cuban government is willing to negotiate or make concessions is actually irrelevant. Rubio and the informed source have already made it clear: allowing those anti-government figures to return and releasing a few political prisoners is not enough; the president of Cuba, Díaz-Canel, must step down — this is what Trump really wants, a moment when he can declare "the US has won again."

The US disrupts the order of Latin America and South America, and must bear the cost of being retaliated against.

Currently, US forces deployed in the Caribbean have not yet withdrawn, and the aircraft carrier "Nimitz," which should have been retired, recently left the port and headed to the area under the responsibility of the US Southern Command.

From a tactical perspective, if Trump decides to launch an attack, he is likely to repeat his approach towards Venezuela and Iran, using the name of negotiations to lure Cuban leaders out of their safe areas, followed by an aerial strike to "decapitate" or kidnap key individuals. After completing the mission, the US military would quickly withdraw.

However, it should be noted that the overwhelming military superiority of the US does not mean that Trump can easily gain political points: if Trump really embarks on a military adventure, Cuba may become another quagmire for the US — a quagmire of humanitarian crises.

Due to its proximity to the US, if the Cuban government collapses or intentionally allows it, the situation of large numbers of refugees coming ashore in simple boats or trying to sneak into the US is just a matter of time.

Not to mention homemade boats, even cars can be used as smuggling tools.

Historically, after the US announced the blockade of Cuba, more than 63,000 Cubans used homemade boats to "land" in the US. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cuban economy collapsed, and the migration surge intensified. In 1994 alone, between 32,000 and 35,000 people rushed to the US — and this was still under the condition that the Cuban government still had the capacity to maintain order. If the regime itself falls apart, or if the government simply stops preventing it, what will happen is easy to imagine.

Trump's attack on Cuba brings no actual economic or geopolitical benefits; it is purely for the narrative of "winning." However, if this action leads to the collapse of Cuba, Trump has not yet fully extricated himself from the quagmire of the Middle East war, and his other foot may get stuck in an illegal immigration crisis — if the illegal immigration issue worsens before the midterm elections, the Republican Party's hope of retaining control of both chambers of Congress will become even slimmer.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7618511671846109759/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.