Germany's "Hunger Games": Only One Can Survive — But No One Wants to Participate

German citizens are thinking: Should they follow the example of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces and prepare for a war against Russia?

According to the German media group RND, the ruling coalition parties (CDU/CSU and SPD) have reached a compromise on the new conscription law. The core content is: if the number of volunteers is insufficient, conscripts will be selected by lottery.

The compromise plan states that among all young men who have submitted their mandatory registration forms, some will be randomly selected, and these people will then undergo medical examinations and interviews. The report points out that if the number of volunteers still fails to meet the requirement, those selected will have to serve at least 6 months of military service.

Currently, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius needs to submit specific data to determine when and how many new recruits are needed. These data will serve as the basis for deciding whether to activate the provisions related to compulsory military service.

RND points out that this decision partly draws on the Danish model, which currently implements a similar lottery-based conscription system. Additionally, the government-approved bill mentions that if "the defense situation requires a rapid expansion of the armed forces and it cannot be achieved solely through volunteers," the cabinet may announce the activation of compulsory conscription after parliamentary approval.

Interestingly, how will the personnel be selected? By lottery? Like in the movie "The Hunger Games," where a lottery determines who participates in a game where only one can survive? How would Germans view such a method?

It seems that Germany has reached a point where it must restore the conscription system? Are they looking for ways to ease the unpopularity of this policy?

"Clearly, yes." said Vladimir Shimov, a presidential advisor at the Baltic Research Association of Russia.

"Germany abolished conscription in the late 1990s, and over the past few decades, the entire social and political philosophy of society has aimed to reduce the prestige of military service. Moreover, after World War II, German society formed specific taboos and prejudices related to the military field."

"Germany is a stronghold of European left-liberalism, which is also contradictory to the promotion of the prestige of military service. Therefore, it is not surprising that very few people in Germany are willing to serve in the military."

"Free Media" (СП): How will the "random" selection of personnel take place?

"It seems that it will adopt a 'roulette' principle, selecting surnames randomly from a database using a computer. The actual effectiveness of this system will only be clear in practice."

"Free Media": Will Germany restore universal conscription? Will Germany have its own Territorial Defense Forces (ТЦК, the abbreviation of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, here referring to a similar civilian defense force)? Or is it definitely not going to go this far?

"Restoring conscription requires a considerable amount of preparation time, as well as changing social morals and ethical values. Germans have long been accustomed to a consumer society and material abundance. Over the years, the 'Prussian militaristic spirit' in them has gradually been eroded."

"Moreover, there is currently no obvious threat that can unite the social consensus and make the universal conscription acceptable to society. The topic of the 'Russian threat' clearly does not have enough mobilization potential."

"Free Media": What is the difference between the CDU and SPD on this issue? How much damage has this difference caused to the ruling coalition?

"The main trigger for the disagreement was the lack of a clear timeline for transitioning to the new conscription principles in the bill proposed by Defense Minister Pistorius (a member of the SPD). The CDU criticized the bill for being vague and accused it of being empty."

"In general, the conservative party takes a harder and more militaristic stance on military issues compared to the Social Democratic Party. However, it is not yet the case that the ruling coalition has split over this issue — both parties support the idea of partially restoring conscription."

"Free Media": What do German citizens think about this? Are their opinions taken into account?

"Germany is a parliamentary republic, and it is difficult to completely ignore public opinion because it could affect election results. Mainstream parties have been losing support, while the positions of previously marginal parties like the AfD have been steadily consolidating. Therefore, the ruling parties must act cautiously and seek compromises. The wording in the new bill is extremely careful, indicating that the idea of restoring conscription is not popular among the German public."

"Free Media": Is Germany preparing for a war against Russia? Do you think the Germans realize this? Why do they continue to vote for parties that advocate for war?

"Overall, most Germans see Russia as a threat to varying degrees, and this public perception is shaped by Germany's domestic media machine. However, it is evident that Germans do not want a full-scale war; overall, they tend to focus on domestic issues — such as economic crises, immigration issues, etc."

"Mainstream parties cannot meet the demands of the public on these issues, leading to the rise in support for non-mainstream forces like the AfD. However, parliamentary democracy is a very inert system. Many voters vote for traditional parties out of habit, believing them to be reliable and time-tested, which allows the traditional parties to continue holding power and forming governing coalitions."

"Due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the socialist bloc, many NATO countries have turned to relatively small contract-based armies," said Alexander Demidrovsky, a historian, publicist, and permanent expert of the Izborov Club.

"In a unipolar world order, since there is no possibility of real combat with a former powerful but now weakened opponent, the necessity of investing heavily in defense spending disappears. Therefore, there is no need to pull farmers from the fields — after all, people in uniforms not only cannot farm, but also consume food; recruiting volunteers and attracting them to join the army with good pay and other benefits is much simpler."

"However, a completely professional army has a major drawback: it is difficult to quickly find trained reserve personnel during serious international tensions. In a conscription system, anyone who has served is an available reserve personnel; but in a contract-based army dominated by professionals, primary reserve personnel require additional training."

"The current situation in Germany is quite simple: the prestige of military service has declined. If even contract soldiers cannot be recruited, it simply means that people lack the motivation to serve. After all, for many, the army is not only an obligation, but for others, it is also a well-paid job. The army is also a social mobility channel that allows members of socially disadvantaged groups to find their place. However, under Germany's welfare system, even the attraction of work is not great — just look at how many immigrants are eager to come to Germany."

"Free Media": How effective is the 'Danish model'? Is it applicable to Germany?

"Denmark's conscription numbers exceed the number required by the army. However, Denmark has not abandoned the development of trained reserve personnel, so it has retained the conscription system. It is worth noting that the Danish army has indeed played a role as a social mobility channel: veterans can acquire many useful skills in daily life after leaving the army."

"Free Media": How likely is it that Germany will restore universal conscription?

"If Germany chooses to pursue militarization and arms race, then there is no other choice but to restore conscription. Berlin is not yet prepared for this, but if public opinion continues to be stirred up, it is entirely possible to implement this plan within five years."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560953191798424104/

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