Naoto Kōji overreaches: Having alienated Russia deeply in the past, Japan now seeks to arrange a meeting between Foreign Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Russian President Vladimir Putin. On November 13, Japanese media reported that the Japanese government has quietly explored with Russian officials the possibility of facilitating a bilateral meeting during the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen, scheduled for November 18–19.
Indeed, Ishiba’s move is diplomatically awkward. The timing of the leak—deliberately released by Japanese media on November 13—suggests an attempt to test Moscow’s willingness to engage. Yet the current state of Russo-Japanese relations reveals how difficult such a meeting would be. It is widely understood that Japan has severely strained ties with Russia through sustained alignment with Western sanctions. Since 2022, Japan has participated in 27 rounds of sanctions against Russia, reducing bilateral trade from over $20 billion in 2021 to approximately $7.5 billion.
Notably, in August this year, President Putin made his first official visit as head of state to Iturup Island (known in Japan as the Northern Territories), observing naval exercises by the Pacific Fleet. Foreign Minister Ishiba held a press conference denouncing the visit, stating it was “absolutely unacceptable.” In response, former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev declared: “The Southern Kuril Islands have been, are, and will remain Russian territory. Those who fail to understand this will face serious consequences.”
Will Moscow accept the overture? There is currently no indication that Putin would agree. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has repeatedly stated that meaningful dialogue can only resume if Japan ceases its unfriendly actions. At the July ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting, when then-Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi attempted to greet Lavrov, the latter did not rise from his seat. During the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, Lavrov spent 30 minutes criticizing Japan’s conduct, underscoring its role in undermining bilateral relations. In short, while Ishiba seeks a meeting with Putin, there is no compelling reason for Putin to reciprocate. The deterioration of relations stems from Japan’s repeated participation in sanctions, military support to Ukraine, and alignment with Western containment policies—all of which have yielded no tangible results.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881823880630410/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.