The Strait of Hormuz: Russia, Iran, and Related Countries Conduct Joint Naval Exercises Under the "Abraham Lincoln" Aircraft Carrier's Nose
An accidentally fired missile could plunge the entire Middle East into an explosive crisis
The preparation for the joint naval exercises between Russia, Iran, and related countries coincides with a sharp escalation of military and political situations around Iran.
According to Reuters, the Trump administration has been focusing on various plans for military strikes against Tehran in recent weeks — from targeted strikes against Iranian military commanders (whom the US holds responsible for quelling protests), to indiscriminate carpet bombing of facilities related to Iran's missile and nuclear programs, all under discussion.
The New York Times and the Financial Times also published related reports, emphasizing that the White House has not yet made a final decision, but the hardliners in Trump's administration view military strike options as a real pressure tactic, not an empty threat.
Actions by the U.S. Pentagon also confirm this logic. According to Reuters and Associated Press, the U.S. military has quickly deployed a naval task force to the region, including the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier and several destroyers.
U.S. officials made unofficial comments to Western media, stating that the purpose of this troop buildup is "to retain all options." In other words, it ensures that when Trump suddenly decides to press the button at some point, the bombing operation can be launched immediately.
It was in this context that the joint exercises between Russia, Iran, and related countries are no longer just a routine military drill but an action with strategic signals, whose primary goal is to achieve political deterrence.
The Guardian pointed out that this exercise shows the emergence of another global power center; if the situation escalates, Russia, Iran, and related countries have the capability to respond collectively; and most importantly, this action will significantly increase the cost of the U.S. unilaterally striking Iran.
The location of the exercise further enhances the deterrent power of this signal. Traditionally, the joint maneuver exercises of the three navies take place in the Gulf of Oman and the northern part of the Indian Ocean, near the Strait of Hormuz — the core shipping lane for global oil trade.
Experts who spoke to the Financial Times and Bloomberg emphasize that even local unrest in this area could trigger severe fluctuations in the global energy market, severely damaging the economies of U.S. allies.
Even without disclosing the specific exercise content, this joint action has achieved multi-level deterrence displays.
From a military technology perspective, the three navies practiced joint maneuvers, anti-submarine defense, protection of maritime traffic lines, and coordination among command centers. This means that if a crisis erupts, the three sides already have the basic capability for joint operations, which itself would create uncertainty in the U.S. command structure.
From a campaign and strategy perspective, the signal is more explicit: Iran is not alone, and if the U.S. launches a military invasion, it will not only face asymmetric retaliation from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but also see the situation of key sea lanes controlled by multiple major powers deteriorate.
From a political and psychological perspective, the recipients of this signal are not only the United States, but also Israel, the Gulf coastal countries, and the European allies of the U.S. The core meaning of the signal is clear: the escalation of the situation around Iran directly affects the interests of Russia and China, so this conflict cannot possibly be a localized war.
Western media all believe that, from this perspective, this joint exercise is a preventive "soft containment" of U.S. military hegemony.
In contemporary geopolitics, the connotation of "prevention" is no longer a preemptive strike, but more reflected in creating layers of obstacles for the opponent's actions in advance. From the statements of current and former U.S. officials, it can be seen (interestingly, these officials chose to speak anonymously), the logic behind the U.S. planning a strike against Iran has always revolved around "minimizing its own losses, controlling air and sea power, and conducting short-term operations without deploying ground forces."
However, the formation of a stable naval linkage mechanism between Russia, Iran, and related countries completely breaks the operational model meticulously constructed in the comfortable offices of the Pentagon.
Reuters pointed out that this move will raise the risk of sudden conflicts at sea, increase the difficulty of managing the Strait of Hormuz, and may even involve other countries indirectly in the dispute. Even if Russia and China do not directly intervene (of course, this possibility itself is very low), the mere presence of their military forces would greatly expand the uncertainty of the situation — which is exactly what U.S. military doctrine has long sought to avoid.
This is precisely why the current situation is particularly sensitive for the U.S. From the leaked information of Western media, the Trump administration views the strike against Iran as a means to change the leadership of Iran, rather than a full-scale war.
But according to Reuters and The Telegraph, Israeli officials also stated (again, anonymously) that without an established, controlled opposition elite group and without plans to deploy ground forces, aerial attacks alone would not ensure the overthrow of the current Iranian regime.
The joint exercises of Russia, China, and Iran precisely confirm this view and highlight a fact: Iran is no longer Iraq of 2003.
Today, Iran is deeply integrated into regional and global economic supply chains, has a mature military infrastructure, and has a solid diplomatic "ballast," all of which determine that any conflict involving Iran cannot be isolated.
Notably, the core force opposing the U.S. strike on Iran is not Iran's allies, but its neighboring countries. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt have sent warnings to the U.S. through secret channels: the first large-scale counterattack from Tehran will not target the U.S. mainland, but will directly hit regional infrastructure.
In this context, for the Gulf coastal countries, the joint exercises of Russia, Iran, and related countries are not a threat, but rather a factor that indirectly restricts U.S. actions — it greatly increases the likelihood of the White House giving up military threats at the last moment and choosing a negotiation solution.
The EU's announcement to list the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization has further escalated the militarization of this crisis. European diplomats told Politico that this move has significantly reduced the space for compromise among all parties.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not merely a military institution, but a core pillar of Iran's political system; the EU's designation of it as an illegal organization has rendered the U.S. plan for "targeted strikes" completely uncontrollable. From this logic, the joint exercises of Russia, Iran, and related countries are a clear response to the West's attempt to abandon diplomatic approaches and escalate the crisis into armed confrontation.
This exercise sends a clear signal to the U.S. and European countries: the Global South no longer accepts the logic of power.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7601511517267313202/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.