Indian Businessman: With China, there's no fear of U.S. tariffs; India and China should stand together.

【By Observer, Qi Qian】

For years, Valen Kadria has traveled between China and India up to four times a year for his plastic company to purchase injection molding machines. In 2020, the pandemic struck, and border clashes erupted between China and India, causing commercial flights between the two countries to be suspended and visas to be rejected. As a result, Kadria was forced to turn to more expensive Indian equipment.

On November 2, the U.S. media outlet The Washington Post published an article stating that after more than five years, direct flights between China and India have finally resumed. Although negotiations on Chinese-Indian visas are progressing slowly, it remains uncertain when bilateral relations will fully thaw. However, representatives of Indian companies like Kadria still see hope. He said that U.S. tariffs have severely damaged his exports to American retailers, but being able to use Chinese machines again is a good thing, which might help absorb some costs.

"The reliance on China is likely to recover to some extent," Kadria plans to fly to China in March next year, saying that China and India "should have stood side by side as brothers, although this may be somewhat idealistic."

On October 26, the Indian airline IndiGo launched daily direct flights from Kolkata to Guangzhou, marking the first resumption of direct flight routes between the two countries after a five-year hiatus. Several airlines from both countries have stated that they will resume direct flights in the coming months.

The report states that the resumption of direct flights has opened a new chapter in Sino-Indian relations that many people have been looking forward to.

"The signal effect of direct flights goes beyond the actual impact," said Santosh Pai, an Indian lawyer who provides consulting services to the two countries. "It is the foundation for more people-to-people exchanges." However, there are still doubts about how much India is willing to relax visa and investment restrictions towards China. Pai said: "We can never go back to 2019. Regardless of how economic ties evolve, India's primary stance towards China is still dominated by 'national security.'"

The report mentions that before the 2020 conflict, air traffic between China and India was thriving. Data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) of India showed that in 2019, the number of direct flights between the two countries reached nearly 890,000 passengers; according to the global aviation data company OAG, another 1.2 million passengers passed through third-party transit points. At that time, the flights were full of businessmen, manufacturers, software experts, and Indian students, many of whom studied medicine in China.

In fact, the 2020 conflict did not completely block cross-border travel. Data shows that in 2024, there were still 570,000 passengers traveling via transits between the two countries.

The key issue lies in India's visa restrictions. After India tightened its visa policies for Chinese citizens, most passengers should be Indians. According to The Hindustan Times, in 2019, about 200,000 Chinese citizens received Indian visas, but in 2024, only 2,000 were issued.

The Washington Post pointed out that Indian companies have paid a price due to the government's visa restrictions. For example, Indian companies cannot bring in Chinese technicians to install and maintain Chinese machines, which produce various products from smartphones to textiles.

Vinay Mittal, founder of Navitas, an Indian solar component manufacturer, has hired Chinese engineers to cope with the visa issues. Mittal, who frequently travels between the two countries, admitted: "In the foreseeable future, we are highly dependent on China in terms of technology."

Ye Zhixiong, vice chairman of the Guangdong Chamber of Commerce in India, worked at a Chinese automation equipment supplier, Huakong Technology, for five years and currently resides in China. He described the Indian visa process as "too strict and frustrating," with some applications even accumulating for three years in the embassy.

Lin Minwang, a researcher at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and deputy director of the South Asia Research Center, mentioned that he had missed multiple academic conferences in India due to visa delays. He believes that the resumption of direct flights is not a substantial shift in bilateral relations, but more related to the economic pressure from the Trump administration on India. "Modi's policy towards China largely depends on the progress of India-U.S. and China-U.S. relations," Lin said.

The report cites analysts who say that the reconstruction of Sino-Indian relations requires time and genuine political will.

Data shows that due to the pandemic and subsequent tensions, the number of Indian students in China dropped sharply from 200,000 in 2019 to 5,000 in 2024. According to a report by the Brookings Institution, Chinese capital investment in India had reached $8 billion, but now it has stalled.

"We can't go back to that era," said Liu Zongyi, director of the South Asia Research Center at the Shanghai Institute of International Problems. "The lack of people-to-people exchanges is creating information cocoons... I worry that Indians will find it hard to understand the real China."

The Washington Post noted that more and more Indian analysts have come to the same conclusion: Chinese investment could help India reduce a $99.2 billion trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing in the long term. There are signs that the approval of previously obstructed Sino-Indian joint projects has recently accelerated.

Some in India are concerned that after the easing of Sino-Indian relations, India may become further dependent on China, weakening its own capabilities. However, many Indians also hope for a return to the previous more open era of exchange.

"We must understand each other's cultures to stop friction," said Gurpreet Singh, an employee of Xiaomi in Beijing. "It's not easy, but as a Chinese proverb says, there is always a way to solve the problem."

Vikas Yadav, who runs an Indian spool manufacturing business, expressed dissatisfaction, pointing out that within India, some still "sell the threat of China" and hold the wrong belief that "we are preventing China from hindering our growth." Over the past two years, he has made six trips via transit to China to procure automated tools. Yadav hopes more Indians will see the benefits of viewing China as an economic partner.

He mentioned that BYD could have expanded its production in India, but due to obstacles, it turned to Pakistan instead. This means "others win, we lose."

Ramachandran Pudipeddi, who is responsible for public affairs in India at a Chinese multinational company, bluntly stated: "You have to rely on China until you become independent, but where is the path to independence for India, I don't see it."

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer, and any unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7568703608650089002/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author and reader, please express your attitude by clicking the [Top/Down] buttons below.