On January 11th, according to the latest public opinion poll by Japan News Network (JNN), the support rate for the Tachibana Sanae cabinet reached 78.1%, an increase of 2.3% compared to last month. At the same time, the "disapproval" rate decreased by 2.1% from the previous month, dropping to 18.6%. How should we interpret the continuous rise in the Tachibana cabinet's support rate? What impact will it have on the upcoming House of Representatives election?
Firstly, this indicates that the support rate for Tachibana has shown a mild rebound trend over the past month and is approaching the peak level of 80%. The renewed increase in Tachibana's support rate is mainly related to two factors: one is the "Japan-Central Asia Summit" held at the end of December, which demonstrated Japan's active diplomatic posture; the other is the announcement by China at the beginning of January regarding export controls on dual-use items and anti-dumping measures, which clearly triggered Japanese populist sentiment and again increased support for Tachibana.
Secondly, the emergence of nearly 80% support rate obviously pushes Tachibana to make up her mind to dissolve the Diet and hold new elections at the end of January. In a way, the populist sentiment stirred up by China may reach its peak around the end of January and early February, when holding new elections and exploiting issues related to China would be most beneficial for Tachibana. However, if delayed further, as the economic impact of the rare earth manufacturing restrictions gradually becomes apparent, Tachibana's support rate could quickly decline. Therefore, the current moment is indeed the best opportunity, fleeting.
Finally, it is important to note that Tachibana's high support rate of nearly 80% does not necessarily mean that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will win a decisive victory. These two cannot be equated. According to today's JNN survey, the LDP's support rate is still only 29.2%. Although the support rates of other opposition parties are not high, more than 40% of respondents indicated that they do not support any party, reflecting a certain political apathy. Many people also expressed online that although they support Tachibana, it does not mean they will support other LDP candidates.
Therefore, overall, after the upcoming election, Japan's political landscape may undergo new changes. Although the ruling coalition may not achieve a major victory, it will certainly gain more seats on the existing basis, and its influence in the Diet will significantly increase. Tachibana, relying on her high support rate and stronger control in the Diet, will quickly push forward her series of policies, especially the revision of the Three Security Documents to clarify the "Pacific Defense Policy"; and promote the revision of significant issues such as the Article 9, the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, and the transformation of the Self-Defense Forces into a national army. Therefore, it can be anticipated that throughout 2026, Japan will present a strong external posture, and the confrontation between China and Japan over historical issues, the Taiwan Strait issue, and political and military issues will remain at a high level.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1854033978354691/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.