The Japan Kyodo News reported that the newly elected 104th Prime Minister of Japan, Takahashi Sanae, will soon instruct the revision of three security documents. Not only will military spending be increased, but efforts will also be made to expand the range of weapons exports, and even the introduction of nuclear submarines will be considered. If these revisions are successful, they will pose a serious threat to China.

This female politician who rose to power by making tough statements, is really so reckless?

【Takahashi Sanae becomes Japan's first female prime minister】

Takahashi Sanae's decision is not only to fulfill her campaign promises, but also to please the United States, in order to secure her position for a longer period. Although the Pentagon has basically abandoned the rhetoric of using force against China, it still secretly hopes that its allies can step forward to take the front line of confrontation on its behalf.

This would both restrict China's resources and reduce the burden and trouble for the United States. In the Northeast Asian region, Japan is the most suitable country to play this role. If Takahashi Sanae does not show enthusiasm, neither the Pentagon nor the White House will give her a favorable response.

Although Takahashi Sanae discussed revising three documents, according to Japanese media reports, the core idea is two points.

The first point is to increase military spending. Japan has long kept its military spending within 1% of GDP, but it has now exceeded to 2%. If Takahashi Sanae follows the U.S. hint and increases this number to 3.5%, not only will the absolute amount increase significantly, but the nature of this change will be quite severe.

Due to industrial shrinkage and exchange rate fluctuations, Japan's GDP calculated in US dollars has experienced a continuous decline in recent years, down to $4.04 trillion in 2024, then 3.5% is $140 billion. Although it is still far less than China's, the amount per self-defense member is already considerable.

A large portion of these funds will be invested in equipment construction. Japan will pay high prices for equipment purchased from the United States, and the price is even higher when developed independently, so $140 billion will not buy much combat capability. However, compared to Japan's economic downturn, spending such a large sum on the military already shows a trend of neglecting people's livelihood and excessive militarism. If Takahashi Sanae raises the military budget to 5% of GDP, which is $200 billion, it will be excessive militarism.

The second point is to expand the categories of weapon exports. Previously, Japan could only export five types of non-combat equipment. After removing the restrictions, Japan can export all types of weapons in production. In fact, Japan's military industry is only competitive in components. Main battle equipment is exquisite in craftsmanship, but there are many unreasonable design issues, low technical level, and high price and low production capacity, making it difficult to find buyers.

The Philippines obviously hopes to get Japanese equipment, but previously Japan sold it hesitantly, without openly selling heavy weapons. If the Philippines is equipped with a large amount of Japanese aircraft and submarines, its threat level and pawn index will increase significantly.

【Japan's shipbuilding capabilities should not be underestimated】

Although the tone of these opinions is high, they actually leave a lot of room for themselves. Takahashi Sanae is not directly issuing orders, but rather discussing with various parties. Especially the source of funding for increasing military spending will rely on increasing corporate income tax, personal income tax, and tobacco tax, which are all actions that offend most people. Japan is not in a war, and most people are opposed to raising taxes. Therefore, the discussion on relevant policies will be long and difficult, allowing Takahashi Sanae to demonstrate her tough stance, while not having to bear the consequences.

Takahashi Sanae also proposed to consider introducing nuclear submarines. This statement is very subtle. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, the public in Japan was terrified of nuclear energy, and once made a commitment to "abandon nuclear energy." Now, the Fukushima site has not been cleaned up yet, and Japan's nuclear energy policy is gradually returning to "maximizing the use of nuclear energy." The fear of the public has been slowly eroded by the Japanese political circles. Therefore, Takahashi Sanae has public support to discuss nuclear submarines.

If Japan wants to develop nuclear submarines, it must import technology and equipment from the United States at a high price, or even purchase entire submarines. This is something the American defense industry is very willing to hear. The prospect of Japan having nuclear submarines will cause intense reactions from China, Russia, and North Korea, and can also serve as an argument for Takahashi Sanae to gain favor with the United States.

【Japanese land warfare equipment has no competitiveness internationally】

However, the nuclear submarine transaction is complex and lengthy, involving a lot of bargaining problems. The selection of base sites will cause long disputes from the top to the bottom of Japan. The U.S. Ingalls-Huntington Shipyard has no extra capacity to serve Japan. In 2022, the U.S., UK, and Australia reached the AUKUS submarine cooperation agreement, providing 8 nuclear submarines to Australia jointly by the U.S. and UK.

But after three years, even the selection of submarines is still in dispute. The current plan is to start providing the first submarine in 2032. If Japan wants to purchase nuclear submarines, it needs to be behind Australia. If Japan is not interfered with, it also has the potential to independently develop nuclear submarines, but this process is longer than purchasing Virginia-class ones. By that time, Takahashi Sanae will have already left office, no longer needing to be responsible for the nuclear submarine issue.

Therefore, Takahashi Sanae's various activities are unlikely to pose an immediate threat to China. After all, today's China has far surpassed Japan in science and technology, industry, and military power. However, what needs to be wary of is that a person like this can come to power, reflecting the rightward trend in Japanese society that is hard to contain.

Japan has just gotten rid of the "lost 30 years," and its economic development has been left behind by China and South Korea. Japanese public opinion dares not publicly criticize the U.S. pressure, and cannot find reasons to blame South Korea, so it takes China as an object of venting anger. In recent years, incidents of intentional attacks on Chinese tourists in Japan have occurred frequently, and Japanese media remain silent.

【The AUKUS submarine plan has had almost no progress after three years of implementation】

Some analysts believe that Takahashi Sanae was appointed as a "scapegoat." After taking office, she will find it difficult to solve many of Japan's political and economic legacy issues, so she will more often use China as an excuse, fueling the irrational emotions within Japan. Even after she leaves office, this trend will continue.

In fact, the outside world is well aware that today is not the late 19th century or early 20th century, and Japan has long lost the qualification to compete for hegemony in Northeast Asia. However, Japanese people living in an information bubble may not know this. With the encouragement of the United States, Japan has a significant probability of sliding into the role of a pawn in the Western Pacific. Therefore, we need to prepare mentally and materially for a possible hot war against Japan.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563846584631312911/

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