Brazil's soybeans are no longer sold by the ton, but by "mountains." Before the end of the year, more than 100 million tons have already been sold, directly stepping on last year's record. Can you guess who gave this "heavenly fortune"? Eighty percent. A full 80% of the soybeans have all gone into our country's granaries. In September, it was even more exaggerated, with soybeans leaving Brazilian ports almost exclusively "for China." This isn't business, it's like we've opened a super large buffet, and Brazil is serving dishes non-stop, even worrying that there aren't enough.

First of all, let's clarify why China can eat so many beans. In 2024, China's consumption of soybeans reached 117 million tons, but domestic production is less than 15%, with the remaining 85% needing to be imported. In short, out of 10 beans, 8.5 come from abroad.

These beans aren't just used for oil pressing and stir-frying; more importantly, the soybean meal left after oil extraction - this thing is the "protein soul" of feed, accounting for over 60% of the protein sources in feed.

As the world's largest pork producer, China raises hundreds of millions of pigs, along with countless chickens, ducks, and fish, all of which need to be fed. These "livestock" depend on soybean meal to survive every day.

Take pigs as an example, a pig needs to eat about 200 kilograms of feed from weaning to market, of which 30 kilograms are soybean meal. With tens of millions of pigs across the country, the demand for soybean meal has piled up into mountains, naturally requiring imports of soybeans to fill this gap.

China used to buy American soybeans, and in 2017, American soybeans accounted for 34% of China's imports. But when the Sino-US trade war broke out in 2018, tariff fluctuations made importers unsure, and they turned to Brazil.

This shift was very beneficial: The average protein content of Brazilian soybeans is 47%, slightly higher than that of American soybeans, which perfectly suits the needs of Chinese feed processing. Also, the landed price is 5%-10% cheaper, making the cost-performance ratio extremely high.

More importantly, Brazil provides a sense of security. For the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production reached 168 million tons, with an export potential of 110 million tons, higher than the annual supply capacity of the United States. It's like having a huge warehouse at home, ready to restock anytime, without any worry of supply shortages.

In contrast, Argentina suffers from droughts reducing yields and policy changes causing instability, always having supply problems. The United States also occasionally uses tariffs as a bargaining chip. Compared to this, Brazil naturally becomes China's "optimal solution."

Brazil has long regarded China as its "breadwinner." Soybeans are Brazil's main agricultural product exports. In 2024, the export value of the soybean complex accounted for 32.8% of Brazil's total agricultural exports, and 74.6% of them were sold to China, meaning that one-third of Brazil's agricultural income relies on the Chinese market.

To retain this big customer, Brazilian farmers have written "flattery" into their actions: In 1990, the yield per hectare of Brazilian soybeans was less than 1,740 kg, but now, with improved varieties and technology, the yield has stabilized at 3,000-3,500 kg, nearly doubling.

Chinese enterprises have also helped build infrastructure. Longping High-tech built 10 research sites and 2 seed processing plants in Brazil, cultivating seeds covering over 60,000 mu of farmland in Brazil. They even led the establishment of the "China-Brazil Agricultural Science and Technology Industrial Park," bringing in precision agriculture and field monitoring technologies, helping Brazil increase yields while tightening the supply chain.

As the president of the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Association said, this is "mutual dependence." China needs to ensure the supply, and Brazil needs to rely on China to eat, neither can do without the other.

Now this transaction is getting smoother and smoother, even the issue of money has been resolved. Previously, international trade had to be settled in US dollars, which not only involved handling fees but also exchange rate risks.

Now, China and Brazil directly use RMB for settlement. In April 2025, China signed a contract for 40 ships, 2.4 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, all through the cross-border RMB payment system, bypassing SWIFT, saving a lot of trouble. The Brazilian central bank can even use RMB to buy Iranian oil and Turkish military equipment, completely not looking at the US dollar's face anymore.

To stabilize the cooperation, Brazil also signed a 190 billion yuan currency swap agreement with China, and 60% of soybean exports are settled in RMB, effectively binding the two countries' economies together.

This kind of binding is even more obvious in logistics. Brazilian ports have now understood China's rhythm, knowing that April to September is the peak season for Brazilian soybean arrivals, and have specially adjusted the port scheduling, just to avoid delaying shipments.

In April 2025, the number of ships unloading Brazilian soybeans at Ningbo Zhoushan Port increased by 48% compared to the same period last year, with cargo ships arriving one after another, and dock workers were overwhelmed.

Even if there are occasional small hiccups, such as heavy rain in early 2025 delaying the harvest and causing a delay in soybean arrivals, China has contingency plans. The government released stored soybeans in waves to the market, and the oil mills quickly resumed operations, without affecting the overall situation.

At the end of the day, the confidence of Brazil selling soybeans by "mountains" comes from China, and the confidence of China daring to eat openly comes from Brazil. It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2025 will reach 110 million tons, setting a new historical high, with eight out of ten being orders from China; and in China's imported soybeans, seven out of ten come from Brazil.

This model of "you plant, I buy; you produce, I sell" has long surpassed ordinary business, becoming the "golden partners" of the global agricultural supply chain. Brazilian farmers now check China's demand reports more frequently than weather forecasts, while Chinese feed factories monitor Brazilian port dynamics to calculate inventory. In short, what is this? It's not a "buffet," but both countries have tightly locked their bowls together, unable to let go.

Original source: www.toutiao.com/article/1846121610087488/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.