South Korean media: China will be self-sufficient in HBM within two years, and South Korea may lose its dominant position!

On April 25, South Korean media "Newdaily" published an article stating that there are predictions that China's memory semiconductor company may begin mass production of the fifth-generation HBM (high bandwidth memory) "HBM3E" within two years. To avoid U.S. regulation and vigorously develop general memory technology, China has recently successfully achieved mass production of DDR5, with its domestic market for AI investment accelerating, leading to rapid growth in the domestic market, which is expected to pose a threat to South Korean memory.

According to industry insiders, China's largest memory company, Changxin Memory Technology, is actively developing and aims to produce the latest HBM technology, HBM3E, two years after mass-producing HBM3, i.e., in 2027.

Changxin Memory Technology began producing the latest DRAM DDR5 using a 15nm process, surprising the South Korean memory industry. Just two years ago, the company was only developing technologies in the traditional memory sector to circumvent strict U.S. semiconductor regulations, but last year, it reached a level that greatly disrupted the DDR4 market, causing tension within the South Korean industry.

Last year, the DDR4 market situation was severe, with Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, the three major memory companies that previously dominated the market, announcing their withdrawal from the market due to Changxin Memory Technology's low-price offensive. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix announced plans to quickly reduce their DDR4 share from 30% last year to single digits and even plan to completely exit DDR4 production this year.

While South Korean memory companies quickly handed over the general memory market to China within a year or two, they focused on HBM. HBM is a high-performance, high-value memory that has become indispensable with the rapid growth of the AI market and has become a new revenue source replacing existing general memories.

As Chinese enterprises rush to seize the HBM market, South Korean semiconductor concerns are growing. Currently, 85% of Changxin Memory Technology's total DRAM output is DDR4, but the company seems to be focusing on HBM development, thanks to its strong customer base among China's IT companies.

It is evident that if Changxin Memory Technology successfully develops HBM, it will have customers fully purchasing its products, which will inevitably ensure its rapid growth compared to South Korean memory companies.

Hyundai Motor Securities stated in a recent report, "Considering that Chinese DRAM companies are developing HBM3 and HBM2E, manufactured HBM from China may be installed in Huawei's Ascend series within the next two to three years."

Currently, Changxin Memory Technology is almost the only company in China capable of developing high-performance DRAM like HBM, but there are speculations that Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) may join the HBM mass production through its subsidiaries. Since YMTC successfully mass-produced 294-layer NAND with its unique stacking technology in the NAND market, it has been steadily seeking entry into the DRAM market as AI investments continue to focus on DRAM.

Sources within the South Korean industry said that YMTC sees the potential of the rapidly growing HBM market and hints at the possibility of entering the market.

Some even pointed out that China's "HBM rise" might be a re-enactment of the nightmare where South Korea once gave up the entire LCD (liquid crystal display) market to China.

South Korea once held a dominant position in the LCD market, but due to the low technological barrier, when China entered the market with low prices, LG Display and Samsung Display successively exited the market.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1830340352379916/

Disclaimer: The article represents the views of the author alone.