【By Morgan, Observer Columnist】

Donald Trump is making another state visit to the UK, a rare honor for any U.S. president. Strictly speaking, this return is "unprecedented," but it actually perfectly fits Trump's style: an unconventional, disruptive yet familiar diplomacy.

Since his first visit in 2019, the backdrop of U.S.-UK relations has undergone a complete transformation.

Six years ago, when Trump first visited the UK, Brexit loomed over everything. Brexit cost Britain significant economic interests and international influence. At that time, both sides were exploring new details of cooperation. The UK had long been seen as the gateway for American influence into Europe, and while Brexit somewhat weakened this role, it did not change the foundation of the special relationship. Instead, it made the UK more dependent on Washington in projecting its international image and maintaining its economic status.

At that time, the UK craved international recognition and constantly talked about reaching a new trade agreement with the U.S. However, despite the pageantry, the results were devoid of substance. There was continuous political turmoil in the UK, from Theresa May to Liz Truss and then Rishi Sunak, with no actual agreements ever materializing.

Now the situation is different. Brexit is completed, and London has indeed signed a trade agreement with Washington, and the venue has changed from Buckingham Palace, where Queen Elizabeth II presided, to Windsor Castle, under King Charles III. The UK is no longer as desperate for recognition as before, but it remains vulnerable. After Brexit, the UK didn't have much leverage, and U.S. support remained indispensable.

For Trump, this visit is also important. After his dramatic return to the White House, he wants to showcase his international standing. This can be seen from his diplomatic statements. Trump claimed he had "an average of one peace deal per month" during his second term, rebranding himself from an initial "dealmaker" to a "peacemaker." The pageantry of the British royal family is the UK's trump card, an diplomatic asset few countries can rival. For a president who is obsessed with grandeur and flattery, the symbolic significance of Windsor Castle is no less than any policy achievement.

On September 17 local time, Donald Trump and King Charles III of the UK inspected the guard at Windsor Castle. Visual China

However, this grand event comes at a high cost. Security costs are expected to exceed £10 million, and with recent assassination attempts against American conservative activist Charlie Kirk, the security situation has become even more severe. British police have had to mobilize large numbers of officers, setting up multiple layers of security around Windsor Castle, from traffic control on the periphery to special security deployments inside the castle. Every detail has been meticulously planned, and Trump can only move within these tight protections.

Beneath the pageantry, a more challenging issue arises: Can the UK maintain some strategic autonomy in front of Trump's America? On the surface, the two governments have a close relationship and align on NATO and security priorities. However, there are clear differences on the Ukraine issue. The UK is one of Kyiv's most steadfast supporters and a sharp critic of Russia, while Trump has repeatedly hinted at wanting to reduce the U.S. role.

Therefore, there is widespread concern in London that the UK may have to soften its stance on certain issues to please Trump.

This anxiety was already evident earlier this year in Washington. When Trump met Keir Starmer at the White House, he complained that he "really didn't like" London Mayor Sadiq Khan and called him a "bad guy." Starmer responded that Khan was his good friend, but his rebuttal was weak and failed to stop Trump from continuing his outburst. This scene once again sparked the familiar online joke: the UK is like the "51st state" of America, sacrificing its autonomy too easily to please its senior partner.

But for Starmer, the situation isn't that good. He must maintain the UK's independent image on the international stage and avoid being labeled as an "American vassal," while also showing willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration to secure favorable trade and security agreements for the UK. This difficult position puts immense pressure on Starmer in foreign policy decisions.

On the economic front, Starmer understands the UK's fragility after Brexit and needs to establish solid trade relationships with major economies like the U.S. to boost the economy. However, he also doesn't want the UK to make excessive concessions in trade negotiations that could harm national interests. Therefore, how to safeguard the UK's economic interests while achieving mutually beneficial trade agreements with the U.S. has become a major challenge for him.

In terms of security, although the UK remains an important NATO member, its influence in European security matters has declined after Brexit. Starmer realizes that maintaining close security cooperation with the U.S. is crucial for the UK's national security. At the same time, he worries that over-reliance on U.S. security protection could weaken the UK's own defense capabilities. Therefore, he is seeking a balance in security cooperation, ensuring close collaboration with the U.S. while enhancing the UK's own defense capabilities.

On the diplomatic stage, Starmer is particularly cautious. He must address domestic concerns about the UK's declining international status while managing complex relationships with major powers. As mentioned earlier, the divergence between the UK and the U.S. on the Ukraine issue has already become apparent, and Starmer needs to maintain the UK's position while avoiding major rifts with the U.S. This delicate diplomatic balancing act tests his political wisdom and diplomatic skills.

Starmer is not an idealist; he is primarily a pragmatist. In the short term, soothing Trump's ego and securing the most favorable agreement for the UK may be the only realistic choice; in the long term, however, he needs to quietly build a more sustainable partnership, such as the CANZUK (free movement of citizens and trade among Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK) or better relations with the EU.

The political irony was evident the moment Trump arrived. The UK's new Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, who once called Trump "the greatest threat to democracy" and a "sexist," was the first to greet him. Few images can vividly capture the collision between past beliefs and current needs.

Unlike the large-scale protests in central London during Trump's first visit in 2019, the scale of the demonstrations this time is significantly smaller, more limited in scope, but more targeted. Protesters focused on Trump's record in office and his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, even projecting his face alongside Epstein's images on the walls of Windsor Castle. This serves as a reminder that his government once claimed there was "nothing to see" in the Epstein files, and later criticized the Biden administration for not releasing the same documents.

At night, protesters projected photos of Trump with Epstein outside Windsor Castle. Screenshot

This contrast in scale may indicate that the British public's hostility toward Trump is not as strong as it was before. This reflects, to some extent, the overall rightward shift in British politics. Discontent with immigration, economic stagnation, and political drift have created space for the far right. Nigel Farage has taken advantage of this, and his Reform Party has rapidly risen in polls. In this sense, Trump's unpopularity is no longer a unifying force as it was in 2019. The political soil is changing, making his political style more resonant in the UK than ever before.

At the same time, the UK's own anxieties are exposed. Last weekend, over 100,000 people participated in a far-right anti-immigration rally named "United Kingdom." The biggest political beneficiary is Farage, the rising far-right leader, who is a long-time ally of Trump. He has seized the opportunity, positioning himself as the British version of Trump. Their messages are almost identical: harsh warnings about refugees, drawing clear lines between economic immigrants and citizens, and claiming that national identity is under threat. Trump did not create this anger, but he amplified it, thereby giving Farage international recognition.

Therefore, Trump's second state visit is more about calculation than ceremony. For the UK, it highlights the reality that security, trade, and prestige still depend on Washington. For Trump, it is an opportunity to showcase his status abroad and consolidate alliances that align with his worldview.

The outcome remains uncertain. This visit may deepen the bond, expose its limitations, or even leave more questions than answers. One thing is certain: the UK, weakened by Brexit and concerned about the rise of Farage, still finds itself trapped between necessity and autonomy within its most important alliance.

This article is an exclusive contribution from The Observer. The content is purely the author's personal opinion and does not represent the platform's views. Unauthorized reproduction will result in legal consequences. Follow Guancha on WeChat (guanchacn) for daily reading of interesting articles.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7551594882830271030/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.