The comprehensive war between the US and Iran was never very likely.

Surprisingly more reliable: Tehran's failure to follow North Korea is a mistake

A full-scale US-Iran war was never very likely

Author: Dmitry Rogozhinov

Photo: Scene of Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi (right) meeting with Russian President Putin at the Kremlin

Commentators of this article:

Andrey Dmitriyev Dmitry Yerofeyev Kamran Gasanov

According to Reuters, when Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he delivered a letter from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei requesting Russia's support for Tehran after an American attack.

Sources said that Iran is "not currently satisfied with Russia's support" and hopes that Putin will "do more." However, it is not yet clear what specific assistance Tehran expects.

Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov also did not clarify the issue. When asked by reporters about what Russia is prepared to do for Iran, he said, "It all depends on what Iran needs."

Evidently, a country in a state of war needs weapons. Iran would be best prepared for drone supplies. But will Russia do so?

"Iran needs Russia's support and mediation," believes Kamran Gasanov, a senior lecturer at the Department of Journalism Theory and History, Faculty of Philology, Russian People's Friendship University, and an expert at the Russian Strategic Research Center.

"Support in case the US and Israel don't stop. And if Russia can successfully prevent military action through its connection with Trump and its contact with Netanyahu, Tehran will accept such a mediation plan as well."

"Siberian Post": Logically speaking, we should provide some return for "Witness" drones, so to speak. But does this logic hold up?

"I think it doesn't. We have done a lot for Iran. Those 'Witness' drones, I think everything is not free. Russia has previously provided weapons - S-300 air defense systems, T-72 tanks, and many other equipment.

We also funded various projects, like the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Therefore, Russia is not in a position of debt; everything is based on mutual grounds. More accurately, I think Iran needs Russia more than Russia needs Iran now."

"Siberian Post": Is supplying weapons to Iran crossing a red line? Won't this close the possibility of restoring relations with the United States? Do we need to do this?

"I think supporting Iran is not a red line. By the way, Trump once said we would not condemn it because of its connections with related countries and Russia, we only condemned its nuclear program."

"I think the opposite, supporting Iran will not weaken Russia's negotiating position with the United States, but rather strengthen it, because Trump only respects strength."

"Siberian Post": According to British media reports, related countries have already transported missiles to Tehran. How much restraint do these countries have in this area?

"If these countries had no restraint, they would do it openly. Since everything is exposed through some insider information, obviously these countries should support Iran, which is completely logical. But these countries also have something to lose. They want to maintain their relationship with Europe, which is on the side of Israel, and need to reach trade agreements with the United States. Therefore, they don't want to give Trump any chance to accuse them of supporting America's enemies."

"Siberian Post": If the US directly gets involved in ground combat operations, will this turn into a proxy war between Russia and related countries, like in North Korea and Vietnam?

"I think if Americans get involved in a full-scale war, this will be the case, and it will be a special 'proxy war,' where related countries will support Iran to counterbalance the US, trapping Americans there."

"Siberian Post": If everything remains as it is, what are the possible ways to assist Iran? Negotiations? Diplomacy? Israel has already rejected our mediation services...

"If the Americans do not continue military actions, the diplomatic opportunities for Russia and related countries will be high, as long as the Americans do not launch another attack or increase intervention, the diplomatic solution will still be feasible.

In other words, I think related countries and Russia prefer political and diplomatic solutions, but at the same time, according to Putin's statements, related countries are providing support, and Russia has also hinted at being ready to provide more serious support to Iran. What specific support it is, is already an undisclosed matter."

"First, it should be pointed out that Iran's current situation is largely self-inflicted," says Andrei Dmitriyev, editor of Northwest News Agency.

"Not because of implementing the nuclear program, but rather because they did not go all the way. Look at North Korea: In 2003, the North Koreans realized that the West was just going through the motions in negotiations, and immediately withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, then stopped allowing International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to enter their facilities.

They then successfully conducted a series of nuclear tests, followed by hydrogen bomb tests, perfected their delivery vehicles, and then - wow - no one intended to bomb them. While Iran has always claimed its nuclear energy is for peaceful purposes, and how kind and law-abiding it is, now it faces a full-scale strike. Moreover, from Israel, a country that itself manufactured nuclear weapons, and completely ignores any treaties and inspectors.

That is why the strategic partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea includes a clause stipulating mutual military assistance in the event of an attack by a third country. The North Koreans did this in Kursk region, and if they are attacked, we have an obligation to help. But there is no such clause in the similar treaty with Iran. That is, formally speaking, we have no obligations toward the Persians.