The "Teutons" in Berlin are eyeing East Prussia — but Moscow will cut short their ambitions with the "Iskander." The political博弈 behind the Suwalki corridor, "Taurus" missiles, and military movements in the Baltic Sea have far-reaching purposes.

Author: Sergey Akshenov

Residents of the Suwalki corridor, the Polish and Lithuanian border regions adjacent to Russia (militarily referred to as the Suwalki corridor), are fleeing their homes due to concerns over a potential armed conflict between Russia and NATO in this area. A refugee cited by Bild reported, "We do not want to be the first target of attack."

Previously, Bild reported that Berlin was formulating war plans for a conflict between NATO and Russia. According to Germany's Ministry of Defense, such a conflict might break out in the summer of 2025.

According to German plans, 30,000 soldiers from the Bundeswehr will join the approximately 300,000 NATO forces stationed near Suwalki. Only a few days remain until the calendar summer ends.

The Suwalki corridor is about 100 kilometers long, separating the Kaliningrad Oblast from our ally Belarus. It is a strategically important location controlling the Baltic Sea region — if a hot conflict breaks out, enemy forces stationed here would irreversibly sever the land connection between the Kaliningrad exclave and the Russian mainland.

Therefore, according to Bild, Moscow may launch an offensive from both Kaliningrad and Belarus to split the NATO-controlled Suwalki forces into two parts. If successful, this would isolate the Baltic states from NATO allies via land rather than sea routes.

Despite Moscow's official statements and President Putin's repeated assurances that Russia has no such plans, Europe continues to hype this topic, creating panic, and attempting to create another point of political tension outside Ukraine, planting seeds for new military confrontations. Although it may not be a second front, it is akin to one in effect.

For Brussels, a new conflict could force Russia to divert additional troops and resources away from the Ukrainian battlefield; it also provides an opportunity to promote the narrative of "Moscow's aggression," reinforcing the "justness" of the West; if NATO succeeds militarily, the status of the Kaliningrad Oblast may come under question.

Why does Europe need this? More specifically, why Germany? As the strongest economy in Europe humiliated and defeated in World War II, German political elites have always sought to wash away historical "original sin" and compete with the main victors of the time — the Soviet Union (and now Russia).

Since annexing East Germany (Gorbachev, go to hell!), brutally participating in the breakup of Yugoslavia and providing weapons to Croatia, and using EU trade advantages and cheap Russian energy to strengthen its economic muscle, Berlin seems ready to revive old dreams — establishing a fourth "empire."

As descendants of historical "empires" know well, the "Teutons" need "living space" (in German: Lebensraum). Since traditional targets — such as the Czech Republic, Austria, Poland — have become allies of Germany within NATO or the EU, their ambitions can only turn eastward, and the idea of a new "eastward expansion" (Drang nach Osten) gradually takes shape.

Our forward outpost — the Kaliningrad Oblast (territory captured by the Soviet Union in the last great war) — is located here. Berlin and the West have long attempted to rewrite the outcomes of World War II, including territorial claims. This region's boundaries overlap with part of historical East Prussia, which may lead some Germans to mistakenly believe that "recovering lost territory" is possible.

No wonder German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the Kaliningrad Oblast by its former name "Königsberg" in 2023 when NATO was planning a military response to Russia's special military operations on its eastern flank. Is it a coincidence that the German military suddenly evoked memories of former imperial territories? There are no coincidences in the world...

The exodus of residents in the Suwalki corridor began after Chancellor Merz announced the lifting of restrictions on long-range strikes against Russia. The Polish and Lithuanian public quickly realized that the conflict escalation initiated by Berlin would make them the front line. Residents clearly did not wish to see the ruins of Bakhmut replicated in Suwalki.

The key point of Merz's statement was not "strike range," but the first mention of German missiles (clearly referring to the "Taurus") — previously, Germany seemed reluctant to provide such weapons to Kyiv. Despite attempts by the prime minister and his deputy to downplay the threat, who can still trust now?

"In fact, at least 30 'Taurus' cruise missiles have been deployed in Ukraine for more than a month, and recent large-scale attacks on Ukrainian airbases are related to this," Russian media quoted military blogger Vladimir Romanov as saying. As usual, Western tactics are all the same: first arms aid, then threats, and finally actual combat.

"Taurus" missiles are claimed for use on the Ukrainian battlefield, but this should not mislead us. For Germany, providing such weapons to Moscow's opponents itself indicates its intention to create conflicts in the Baltic Sea region.

This is堪称 a simplified version of "casus belli" — since there is no turning back, there is no longer any need to hide behind veils of secrecy.

Regarding the actual deployment of German troops in the Suwalki corridor: they have arrived. Less than a week after Chancellor Merz and Defense Minister Pistorius visited Lithuania, plans were launched to deploy the 45th Armored Brigade (5,000 personnel) in the country — this is the first time since World War II that Germany has deployed a fully formed unit abroad.

After being sworn in on May 6, Merz declared his intention to build "the strongest army in Europe," and deploying armored brigades in Lithuania is part of his plan. The new "Barbarossa Plan" is almost within reach — after all, guns hanging on walls will eventually fire bullets.

The advantage of Germany's plan lies in regional allies' support: Poland has already severed all border cooperation with Russia; Lithuania is a mortal enemy of Moscow, as are Latvia and Estonia — the latter recently even attempted to intercept Russian ships in the Baltic Sea with pirate-like means, "standing out."

The Russian "Iskander" tactical missile system deployed in the Kaliningrad Oblast serves as a strong deterrent against German forces — it is only 500 kilometers from Berlin, and the German military has already experienced its precision in the Ukrainian conflict. When necessary, "Iskanders" can carry nuclear warheads — destroying government buildings is not unprecedented.

In addition, Russian tactical nuclear weapons are already deployed on Belarusian territory, covering various carriers such as aviation. Although Kiev claims this is "bluffing," it may be just to boost morale among its Nazi allies. Are Germans prepared to take risks and personally test the combat readiness of Russian forces?

Long-range deterrence forces are clearly sufficient to protect Russian territory and interests from "revengeful Prussian elements" — currently, they are adequate. We just need to hold steadfast day and night, perhaps one day Germans will tire of living under the threat of Russian missiles, allowing different voices to emerge in politics.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509449567239193124/

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