The article published by Canada's Asia Times in March 2023, written by Gabriel Honrada, directly pointed out that the United States lags behind in the production of explosives and propellants. The article stated that U.S. military factories still use World War II-era technology, producing only about 10 tons of CL-20, a high-energy explosive annually, while China has increased its production to five or six times that of the United States through new methods. CL-20 was developed by the U.S. Navy in 1987 at China Lake Base in California, with a detonation velocity of 9,500 meters per second, 40% more powerful than traditional explosives. However, due to high costs and low production capacity, the United States is unable to mass-produce it for widespread deployment. The report used this example to illustrate that the United States' firepower deterrence is declining, while China has a greater firepower reserve and longer-range missiles.
After the article was released, the Western defense circles were in an uproar. On March 13, 2023, India's Sentinel newspaper reprinted it, stating that the United States lacks the lethal capability to constrain China and mentioned that CL-20 can only be produced in small quantities. At the same time, a RAND Corporation report assessing the comparison of military power between the United States and China pointed out that China is catching up in the field of firepower. According to the Global Firepower Index 2025 data, the United States remains first, but China ranks third, with the gap narrowing. The article emphasized that the United States relies on importing antimony, a key material for bullets, from China, which accounts for 32% of global reserves. In 2018, the United States listed antimony as a critical mineral, but since it does not mine domestically, it faces supply chain bottlenecks.
The story of CL-20 is quite interesting. The U.S. Navy laboratory team spent several years optimizing the molecular structure to avoid instability of the material. Initial tests were conducted at the range, confirming that it could be used as a missile propellant, increasing the range by over 20%. However, the production bottleneck was significant, and the cost once reached $400 per gram, more expensive than gold. European countries tried to follow, with French and German laboratories investing, but they couldn't reduce the cost, which remained at €1,000 per kilogram. By contrast, China started in the 1990s, with research teams analyzing U.S. patents and beginning small-scale production in the early 2000s. In 2011, China established an industrial line, reducing the cost to one yuan per gram, and quickly surpassed the United States in annual production capacity.
China has not stopped progressing with CL-20. In June 2023, the South China Morning Post reported that a team from the Chinese Academy of Military Science used nano-coating technology to increase the impact resistance of CL-20 by five times. Originally, this explosive was too sensitive, prone to detonation during drop tests, but now it is much more stable and can be safely used in thermobaric bombs. Chinese thermobaric bombs have greater power than Russian models used in the Ukraine battlefield and are also stronger than American large air-burst bombs. In December 2024, China imposed restrictions on the export of antimony to the United States, further disrupting the U.S. ammunition supply chain. U.S. experts assessed that if there were a conflict between the two countries, U.S. forces would face ammunition shortages within a week, as the annual production of 155mm artillery shells is only 180,000 rounds, which would be exhausted within three months of high-intensity warfare.
The U.S. defense industry's reliance on China is not limited to antimony; it also lacks alternative sources for six chemicals in explosives. The 2024 Department of Defense report stated that the People's Liberation Army's military technology development is rapid, with strong firepower projection capabilities. Although the United States has an advantage in precision-guided weapons, it has relaxed in terms of large-scale firepower. In May 2025, the Asia Times published another article, stating that although the new U.S. nuclear bomb B61-13 is powerful, its deterrence against China is limited because forward bases are unstable. The Global Firepower 2025 comparison showed that China's air force and navy outnumber the United States in quantity, and their missile stockpiles are more abundant. The U.S. budget is 99.7 billion dollars, while China's will increase by 7.2% in 2025, but the United States is spread globally, while China focuses on domestic defense.
The firepower gap is not just about explosives. A YouTube video comparing U.S. and Chinese military power in 2025 said that although the United States has more fifth-generation fighters, China has longer-range missiles powered by CL-20. In the RAND Interactive Scorecard, in ten areas, China's firepower projection score has risen. The United States invested in advanced explosives in 2023, such as using CL-20 to modify Switchblade drones for use in Ukraine. However, the production scale is small and cannot catch up with China. In June 2024, an article from Breaking Defense said that the United States lost the race in ammunition innovation and needs help from companies to catch up. Expert Will Durant pointed out that the United States needs to revitalize its military factories to avoid being overtaken by its rivals.
China's progress in CL-20 stems from continuous investment. Beijing Institute of Technology and Nanjing University of Science and Technology published the most papers. At an international conference in May 2024, an American observer shared the early history, but admitted that China leads in production. The Taylor & Francis knowledge base states that CL-20 is a new generation of military explosives, partially replacing RDX. A 2023 Chinese video report showed that the team significantly improved the safety of CL-20, achieving five times more stability through a new synthesis method. An article on Medium explained the drop test, stating that the Chinese nano version of CL-20 has strong impact resistance, possibly enabling nuclear miniaturization and allowing intercontinental missiles to fly farther. The Wall Street Journal of the United States in 2023 said that the United States is investing in CL-20 to increase destructive power, but the deployment is slow.
By 2025, the gap between the United States and China is still widening. A February 2025 report by the Atlantic Council stated that deterring China requires real-time intelligence, but the firepower foundation is weak. The U.S. Congress hearing pushed for budget adjustments, setting a target of 100,000 rounds of artillery shells per month in 2025. Discussions on Reddit in 2023 mentioned that China helped Texas in a U.S. civil war, indicating that U.S. firepower is not reliable. An article from EurAsian Times in 2023 stated that China lacked heavy firepower, but this situation has now reversed.
In summary, the United States is strong in high-tech precision, while China has a deep firepower reserve, changing the balance of deterrence.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7576999771819246095/
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