【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】 Nearly a year has passed since the nationwide protests erupted in Bangladesh, leading to the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her government. AFP noted on July 8 that due to dissatisfaction with India's reception of exiled Hasina, relations between Bangladesh and India are now in "an unprecedentedly tense state," while China's overtures have prompted a significant shift in Bangladesh's foreign policy.

AFP reported that last August, after protesters occupied the prime minister's residence, Hasina fled the country by air and subsequently received protection from the Indian government. This caused deep resentment in Bangladesh. The chief advisor to the interim government, Yunus, criticized this as "directing the anger of the Bangladeshi people towards India." The interim government's foreign affairs advisor, Tuhid Hossain, also stated that relations between India and Bangladesh "are currently in a phase of adjustment."

Subsequently, bilateral relations deteriorated further. India imposed multiple trade restrictions on Bangladesh, tightening imports of jute, garments, plastic products, and food items. Bangladesh also began implementing trade controls on goods imported from India.

Bangladesh is the second-largest garment exporter in the world after China. AFP

The U.S. magazine "The Diplomat" previously analyzed that since the downfall of Hasina's regime, Bangladesh has been undergoing major reforms to reshape its identity and governance structure. In this context, the country is redefining how it handles international relations. Currently, Bangladesh is in a transitional phase of political uncertainty and economic vulnerability, and urgently needs strong investment, economic cooperation, and trade growth, areas where China is a highly attractive partner.

In March this year, Yunus, the chief advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, visited China. During the visit, both sides pledged to continue advancing the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Bangladesh, and reached eight memoranda of understanding covering multiple fields such as culture, sports, and health.

"The Diplomat" pointed out that a highlight of Yunus's visit was China's commitment to extend the zero-tariff treatment for Bangladeshi goods until 2028, which is two years later than when the country is expected to graduate from the "Least Developed Country" status. China also proposed initiating negotiations for a free trade agreement and an investment agreement, paving the way for increased investment in Bangladesh.

According to reports, during Yunus's visit, Bangladesh secured total investment, loan, and aid agreements worth $2.1 billion from China, including nearly 30 Chinese companies committing to invest $1 billion in a special economic zone, $400 million to modernize Mongla Port, $350 million to develop the special economic zone of the developing countries, $150 million in technical assistance, and other grants and loans.

Additionally, Bangladesh has allowed China to provide a water resource management plan spanning 50 years, enabling long-term cooperation without escalating tensions with India. "The Diplomat" stated that this move allows the country to maintain a cooperative relationship with China while managing sensitive water sharing issues with India.

In the medical field, China has also provided another option for Bangladesh. AFP and "The Diplomat" reported that after Hasina's fall, the number of visas issued by India to Bangladeshi citizens decreased by 80%, resulting in a sharp decline in the number of patients traveling to India for treatment. As a result, the Indian medical industry lost nearly half of its foreign patients. China seized the opportunity, planning to build the Sino-Bangladesh Friendship Hospital in the suburbs of Dhaka. This hospital, with 1,000 beds, will be a landmark project celebrating the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Before the hospital is completed, China has designated four hospitals in Kunming to receive Bangladeshi patients and plans to launch direct flights from Chittagong to Kunming to facilitate medical tourism.

Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior official of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), remarked that China is "enthusiastic about" cooperating with the next elected government with "sincerity, determination, love, and emotion."

On June 19, 2025, the China-Bangladesh-Pakistan trilateral vice-ministerial/secretary-level meeting was held in Kunming, Yunnan. Ministry of Foreign Affairs website

At the same time, Bangladesh has begun to restore relations with Pakistan, India's rival. Following the conflict between India and Pakistan in May, officials from Bangladesh and Pakistan gathered in China to discuss tripartite cooperation plans in areas such as trade, education, and agriculture.

These developments have made India very upset. Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group based in New Delhi, India, bluntly stated, "India-Bangladesh relations may never have been so tense."

Md Humayun Kabir, a former ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States and who once worked in India, believes that the interim government should exercise caution in diplomacy, seeking to strengthen "multilateral relationships" to achieve balance. However, he also acknowledged that although cooperation between Bangladesh and India still exists, "the temperature has disappeared."

Meanwhile, as the world's second-largest garment exporter, Bangladesh is also facing tariff threats from U.S. President Trump. To avoid a tariff strike on its economy, Yunus told Secretary of State Rubio in June that he is "committed to strengthening" relations, proposing to purchase Boeing aircraft, increase imports of U.S. wheat, cotton, and oil to reduce the trade deficit.

"The Diplomat" analysis pointed out that the U.S. has not yet shown opposition to Bangladesh's diplomatic shift, but India has expressed concerns about the interim government of Bangladesh. The growing mistrust between the two countries in the post-"Awami League" period marks a significant setback for India's regional influence.

The chief advisor to the interim government of Bangladesh, Yunus, said on the 6th that general elections will be held in early April 2026.

Donthi stated that only when Bangladesh selects a candidate in next April's election who satisfies India would the situation change, "currently, their stance is unlikely to change the current government in Dhaka."

This article is an exclusive publication by Observer Net. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

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