Reference News Network September 15 report. According to the U.S. CNN website September 9 report, President Trump promised that his high tariffs would spark a revival of American manufacturing.
However, so far, his controversial experiment has failed to spark a job boom. Not only is hiring weak, but the industries most affected by tariffs have been laying off workers, which is exactly the opposite of the expected outcome.
A new analysis by Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, shows that shortly after President Trump launched the trade war this spring, industries affected by tariffs, including manufacturing, construction, and transportation, experienced negative employment growth.
Slok's research is based on a three-month moving average of employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results show that although industries affected by tariffs have had moments of job losses in recent years, this is the first time that the number of jobs has shown negative growth for several consecutive months.
Employment in industries not affected by tariffs continues to increase, but at a slower rate than before the trade war broke out.
Joe Bruschiolas, Chief Economist at RSM International, told this website: "The impact of tariffs on hiring is now undeniable. There has been no revival of manufacturing or a hiring boom."
According to the August employment report released on the 5th, manufacturing employment has declined for four consecutive months. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that manufacturing jobs have decreased by 78,000 compared to one year ago.
Tariffs will never significantly increase manufacturing jobs overnight. It is still too early to assess the long-term effects of this strategy.
Nevertheless, some economists say that Trump's chaotic trade strategy has had counterproductive effects in at least two aspects.
First, it created huge uncertainty, paralyzing manufacturers and companies in industries affected by tariffs, leading them to reduce hiring.
Second, the increase in steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs raised costs for American manufacturers who should have benefited from the trade agenda.
Bruschiolas said, "It has proven that economists were right, that starting a trade war would lead to slower economic growth and fewer jobs. That is what is happening."
The reduction in jobs in industries affected by tariffs has led to a slowdown in overall job creation in the U.S. economy.
Data from JPMorgan Chase show that over the past three months, U.S. job growth has slowed to just 29,000 new jobs, far below the 105,000 new jobs added in the previous three months. The unemployment rate remains low, but has risen slightly from 4.1% in June to 4.3% in August, the highest level since the end of 2021.
Americans are becoming increasingly pessimistic about their prospects of finding a new job. Survey data released by the New York Federal Reserve on the 8th show that consumers believe if they don't have a job now, the chance of finding a new one is only 45%, down from 51% in July.
This is the lowest data since the survey was launched in 2013, far below the data during most of Trump's first term. The New York Federal Reserve said that the decline in expectations of finding a new job "is widespread across all age groups, education levels, and income groups, but is most pronounced among those with a high school diploma or less."
In addition to the trade war, some economists say that the reduction in jobs in industries affected by tariffs is related to another policy of Trump's: cracking down on immigration.
Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolf Research, said that the strong employment situation for native-born people "has masked" the "weakness" in the employment situation for foreign-born people.
Although monthly data on foreign-born employment may be unstable, the trend shows that the job market is suffering from a decrease in labor supply.
Data from Wolf Research show that after seasonal adjustment, foreign-born employment decreased by 342,000 in August, continuing the downward trend from July, when it decreased by 416,000. So far this year, foreign-born employment has decreased by 1.5 million.
Some industries, such as construction, which are easily affected by tariffs and the uncertainty of the trade war, are also facing stricter immigration enforcement.
Roth said, "The latest data paint a picture of a slowing job market, the result of both supply and demand factors." She hopes that as companies become more certain about where the tariffs will fall, some pressure on the job market will ease, allowing hiring to rebound later this year.
Roth said, "It's more about economic uncertainty than about tariffs." (Translated by Wang Haifang)
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550248586140516898/
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