The current fear in Europe might be the geopolitical alliance between the United States and Russia. This move effectively sells Europe out again, first by selling Ukraine and then Europe itself, turning Europe from a mastermind behind the Ukraine-Russia conflict into the biggest victim.
At the beginning of November 2025, rumors started to circulate in the U.S., saying that the Trump administration was pushing for a framework for peace between Ukraine and Russia. Initially, people thought it was just routine diplomacy. However, around November 19, British media exposed a 28-point draft, which caused Europe to be stunned once its content was revealed. The plan required Ukraine to accept the status quo of Crimea and parts of the eastern regions, reduce the size of its military to 400,000, lower the limit on heavy equipment, and promise not to join NATO, with NATO also not being allowed to station troops in Ukraine. Even more shocking was the phased lifting of sanctions against Russia, even allowing Russia to return to the G8 summit. G8, previously, every time G7 met, they used Russia as a target, but now, the U.S. itself has turned its back on this. The EU is busy pushing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and America's move directly hit the EU in the face. French newspaper Le Monde openly criticized, calling the plan a way to force Ukraine to surrender, and invented the term "Trump-Putin axis", meaning that the president of the United States and Putin had secret dealings, and European security was all threatened.
On November 20, Zelenskyy just got the plan from the U.S. Army Secretary, and Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, quickly formed a negotiation team to meet in Geneva. In Europe, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, came forward directly, saying that European leaders were not involved in drafting the plan at all. This matter concerns European security, and the U.S. bypassing them was extremely unseemly. On November 22, the European Council, the European Commission, plus 12 countries including Germany, France, and the UK issued a joint statement, saying that the American plan could serve as a basis, but needed major revisions. Their counter-proposal was: ceasefire within 24 hours, freezing the front lines but leaving territorial issues for political negotiations, ensuring security without weakening Ukraine's military strength, and linking sanctions to Russia's commitments. Most importantly, Europe should take the lead in the peace process, not allowing the U.S. to act alone. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at the EU-African Union Summit in Rwanda that this was a "temporary result," but Russia must sit at the table. French President Macron also added, saying that a plan without deterrent power would see Russia eventually come back. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer organized a video conference of the "voluntary alliance," emphasizing there was still work to do, but progress was being made.
As for Russia? Peskov, the press secretary of Putin, first said he hadn't received any official information, but the clauses revealed by the media were quite close to the Russian position. When visiting the Western Group Army, Putin said he was open to a genuine peace initiative, but it had to respect Russia's legitimate interests. Foreign Minister Lavrov was more direct, saying that the European counter-proposal was "not constructive," while the original U.S. plan could serve as a basis. On November 24, Yuri Ushakov, an assistant to the Kremlin's foreign policy, directly opposed, saying that the European plan was "obvious" and completely unsuitable for them. Russia clearly seemed satisfied with the points of lifting sanctions, returning to the G8, and not allowing Ukraine to join NATO. Putin also called Turkish President Erdogan, saying that Trump's original proposal was a good foundation for future agreements. This attitude clearly shows that Russia is pleased to see the widening rift between the U.S. and Europe.
Ukraine, caught in the middle, is the most uncomfortable. On November 20, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was in the most difficult moment, but was willing to cooperate honestly, and that negotiations had to preserve dignity and freedom. He put forward his own ideas: not recognizing Russia's control over occupied areas, wanting stronger security guarantees, and not wanting significant reductions in military forces. On November 23, after the Geneva meeting between the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe, the plan was reduced to 19 points, some extreme clauses such as the complete dismantling of long-range missiles were removed. But territorial concessions and military limits remained problematic. On November 25, Zelenskyy said he was ready to push the framework, but sensitive points had to be discussed with Trump, and also include European allies. Ukraine knew that the U.S. was the main donor, so it was unrealistic to break up, but these clauses were too damaging. Kyiv was like a troublemaker, not daring to offend either side.
The U.S. is playing its cards well. After four years of conflict, the U.S. found that pouring money did not bring long-term benefits and wanted to get out quickly, shifting focus elsewhere. Trump even said that Zelenskyy had to take over by November 27, otherwise military aid would be reduced. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on November 23 in Geneva that the plan had been greatly revised and that Ukraine's concerns had been addressed. On November 25, Trump said on social media that only a few differences remained, and sent special envoy Steve Witko to Moscow to meet Putin, and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to meet in Kyiv. The White House said this was not the final version, but a flexible framework. However, Europeans privately murmured that the source of this plan had a "non-official document" from Russia, submitted in October, and many of the clauses reflected old Russian demands, such as giving up large areas in the east. Reuters reported that this document was submitted by Russia in October, and was jointly drafted by Witko and Putin's special envoy Kirill Dmitriev. Trump's team wanted to use the momentum of the Gaza ceasefire to quickly finalize the agreement, but ignored the feelings of Europe.
The EU is pushing to use 300 billion euros of Russian central bank assets to issue "compensation loans" to Ukraine. However, the American plan mentions establishing two funds, one led by the U.S. and EU to rebuild Ukraine, and another co-founded by the U.S. and Russia to carry out projects. European officials privately said that this was too risky and would undermine the EU strategy, making them powerless. Belgium's prime minister may approve it, but this would equal to breaking the pot of the Bretton Woods system. The Global South is watching, if this really happens, the credibility of the dollar and euro will be destroyed, and BRICS will accelerate decoupling.
The situation is still in a stalemate. Trump said there is no hard deadline, "the deadline is the day it ends." Zelenskyy called Vice President JD Vance, urging the U.S. to involve Europe. Three European leaders said in a video conference that the direction of the plan was opposing, and needed to be handled separately for territory and security. On November 25, Russia launched missile attacks on Kyiv, killing seven and injuring twenty, sending a clear message: if not done according to our wishes, we will continue to fight. Putin said that the American proposal could serve as a basis, but if Ukraine opposes it, we will proceed on the battlefield. The real rift between the U.S. and Europe is evident, and Europe probably won't follow the U.S. unconditionally in the future. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has reached a critical juncture, whether or not it signs, the situation will change dramatically. The worst off is Ukraine, whose fate is in the hands of great powers, and to claim interests, it has to look at their faces.
Original text: www.toutiao.com/article/1850005880005644/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.