The second round of the US-China London negotiations has concluded. The US Treasury Secretary Besten, who is in charge of the trade negotiations here, left early and boarded a private plane back to the United States.

The remaining work has been handed over to Commerce Secretary Rutnick and Trade Representative Grier, who will "as needed" continue to negotiate with China.

[US-China talks paused halfway, Besten returned home early]

One possible reason for Besten's early departure is that the US and China have already reached a consensus and do not need Besten to stay any longer.

Moreover, although Besten is the leading figure for the US economic and trade negotiations, Rutnick and Grier have equal say in the negotiation process.

We also need to consider that Rutnick did not participate in last month's negotiations but joined midway after the leaders of both countries had a phone call. Given that Rutnick's department, the Commerce Department, is responsible for U.S. export control matters, this suggests that Trump has agreed to include export controls in the US-China economic and trade negotiations, which is an unprecedented concession.

In other words, Rutnick must acknowledge the joint statement issued by Geneva, rather than continuing to act tough; otherwise, the negotiations between the US and China cannot proceed.

Therefore, whether Besten is present or not makes little difference; his mission here has been completed.

Additionally, Besten's schedule may have new arrangements, more important than the US-China economic and trade negotiations. Now, media reports in the US are circulating that Trump plans to nominate Besten as the Federal Reserve Chairman to replace the "disobedient" Powell, so that he might get a Federal Reserve that will follow his orders.

[Rutnick and Grier take over subsequent negotiations]

Moreover, as the Treasury Secretary, even if Besten does not become the Federal Reserve Chairman himself, he still needs to personally interview and assess some potential candidates.

However, on this trip back, Besten will mostly attend congressional hearings, though he remains tight-lipped about the topic of these hearings. In any case, upon returning to the US, he will inevitably brief Congress on the latest developments in the US-China negotiations.

How well did the US and China actually talk? There are many signs indicating that after two days of negotiations, both sides indeed made certain progress.

The Chinese delegation, which had kept silent on the first day, also informed the media after the second round of negotiations ended, saying that after nearly 20 hours of "professional and rational" talks, the US and China have reached a basic trade framework that will be reported to the leaders of both countries.

This shows that during these two days in London, besides eating and resting, the rest of the time was spent on negotiations. According to reports from Bloomberg, during the first day of negotiations, the agenda was so packed that there was no time for meal breaks; they ordered takeout and ate while discussing.

[Rutnick joining the negotiations means the US has made concessions, agreeing to discuss its own export control policies with China]

Such marathon arrangements indeed help overcome differences and promote negotiations. When both sides confirm that a trade framework has been reached, the London negotiations can be considered to have come to a temporary close.

If both leaders approve of the newly reached framework, they will instruct their teams to continue following up and implementing it. In other words, the next step will be execution.

However, it is still too early to say that the negotiations have concluded. There is a possibility of a third round of dialogue on the US side because they are unsure how their president will react to this framework.

After the first day of negotiations, Trump said he only received positive signals. However, according to sources, the strong stance of the Chinese delegation shocked the White House, leading to Trump's remark that "China is no simple opponent."

Why is China being tough? It is likely because the US is demanding too much at the negotiating table, thinking that previous restrictions on China can give them an advantage.

We have seen this trick many times before and naturally will not fall for it. If the US and China want to negotiate, it must be based on mutual respect.

Rutnick and others are quite optimistic about the new economic and trade framework. They believe that the framework reached by the US and China this time will help solve the US's most pressing issue—export control of rare earth materials—and further implement the joint statement issued in Geneva in May.

At that time, both sides confirmed that they would establish an interactive mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade issues, which is the key focus of this round of negotiations.

The grace period set by the Trump administration for tariff policies is less than a month away. If an effective dialogue mechanism has not been established between the US and China, reaching an agreement will be extremely difficult.

However, even if the 90-day period expires, Trump will likely extend it again to gain more time for reaching an economic and trade agreement. As long as he has once strategically contracted, he will contract again.

[Trump has contracted once, and will contract again]

It is necessary to clarify that reaching a basic economic and trade framework through negotiations between the US and China does not mean that existing disputes will be smoothly resolved. China has characterized Trump as capricious and highly unpredictable.

Before the official joint statement is released to set the tone for the negotiations, Trump still has the possibility of creating new problems, and he may even renege later. In response to such situations, China has made full preparations.

Given that the Chinese delegation will remain in London for a few more days, whether the US wants to continue the talks or play out-of-the-box tricks, we are willing to accommodate. However, given Trump's current "domestic and foreign troubles," he cannot afford the risk of further complications in the US-China negotiations.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514528589547667968/

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