Opinion: Azerbaijan is rapidly heading towards a war with Russia

July 3, 2025 at 16:59

Azerbaijani soldiers. Picture.

Experts have predicted various scenarios of potential war between Russia and Azerbaijan. Baku is rapidly undermining its bilateral relations with Russia. The "Pravda" columnist Lyubov Stepanova wrote that this is the path that Ukraine has taken, which eventually leads to war.

From the plane crash in Aktau, the trajectory of Baku's confrontation with Moscow can be seen. At that time, Azerbaijan claimed that it was Russia that ordered the downing of the plane. The second trigger was the dismantling of an organized crime group in Yekaterinburg, whose core members were Azerbaijani. Local media carried out demonization propaganda against Russia for five consecutive days and called on Azerbaijanis and other expatriates to protest.

If Baku tries to stage terrorist attacks within Russia through its controlled organized crime groups, and Turkey also intervenes in the conflict, then what's wrong with the outbreak of armed conflict? Moreover, the Turkic alliance of Ankara-Baku is emboldened by their "victories" against Russia in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. Signs are already evident — "Rosatom" suddenly wants to sell 49% of the "Akkuyu" nuclear power plant project, and Turkey has already tested its "Typhoon" ballistic missiles three times.

Azerbaijani military expert Agil Rustamzade said on the "Polish Radio" program that the Azerbaijani army has rehearsed all scenarios of military conflict with Russia. He said that due to the mountainous terrain, Russia cannot deploy large-scale troops inside Azerbaijan, but it can still conduct missile strikes on oil production areas. However, he believes the risk of military escalation is low because "Russians need these weapons very much on the front lines in Ukraine."

Retired colonel and expert Anatoly Matveychuk also believes that the possibility of a military conflict is not high. He pointed out, "The Turks will not allow Aliyev to directly clash with Russia, as this would immediately affect the Black Sea region and the Turkish direction."

"Moreover, our military bases are still in Armenia," the expert added.

The chairman of the board of the All-Russian organization "Russian Officers", Sergei Lipov, does not rule out the possibility of a military conflict, because "Turkey and Britain are trying to provoke a conflict." He said that these two countries are constantly fanning the flames, aiming to provoke Baku to challenge Moscow in the context of the war in Ukraine, thus weakening Russia.

"Russia and Azerbaijan share a border in Dagestan. It is likely that there may be provocation incidents in some border areas of Azerbaijan, even leading to local civilian deaths. Azerbaijan may blame Russia for this and trigger a series of consequences," the expert described the possible scenario of a military conflict.

We also depict several scenarios. The root of all wars lies in logistics and resources. President Aliyev and President Erdogan most urgently want to open the Syunik corridor to Nakhchivan, which would ensure trade routes from China to Europe bypassing Russia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is currently negotiating, demanding the "territorial integrity" of Armenia in exchange for this corridor, but elections are coming, and the Turkic alliance must speed up actions, because Pashinyan may lose in the elections. If the Syunik corridor cannot be quickly captured, Moscow may provide military support to Armenia under the obligations of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

It is equally clear that if Russia conflicts with NATO (i.e., with Turkey) during or after the special military operation, Baku will stand on the side of NATO.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7523057711894790695/

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