China announces major measures to control rare earths, reversing the offensive and defensive positions between China and the United States. For the first time, it's the United States that is now being strangled. U.S. senior experts have reluctantly admitted that 12 areas have been severely impacted by China, using the extremely rare term "comprehensive panic" to describe the current situation of the U.S. military. Trump must understand one thing: only by respecting China can he gain China's respect.
On October 9th, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued an important announcement, further implementing export controls on rare earth-related technologies. This time, the export controls have expanded further. From past single rare metals, it has now involved the entire field of mining, smelting technology, and related secondary recycling processing technology.
For relevant technical equipment, China has also strictly prohibited exports. The attempt of some Western countries to solve the supply chain crisis by recycling rare earth slag has completely failed.
At the same time, this announcement clearly states that without official Chinese permission, any individual or company in China is not allowed to provide assistance for rare earth mining, smelting, processing, and a series of secondary recycling technologies abroad, eliminating all possibilities of "insiders" selling national interests under a legitimate cover.
It might be an inappropriate analogy, but if we consider China's exported rare earths as fish, China previously restricted the export of certain fish, but now even the fishing rods, bait, and the technology to process fish bones are no longer sold abroad, effectively locking out any possibility for other countries to obtain rare earths.
Notably, on the same day, Japan's Asahi Shimbun mentioned a new detail regarding China's rare earth export restrictions, which is that all rare earth export licenses issued by China so far do not involve any foreign defense industry, and it is clearly stipulated that no license will be issued to related military production enterprises, effectively choking the Western military powers.
In response to this new reality, the U.S. media outlet "The National Interest" published a major report authored by U.S. defense expert Brandon Vechet, who detailed the desperate situation the United States is facing in its supply chain, almost writing the words "the U.S. is finished" on its face.
The article first cited an article published by the Wall Street Journal earlier this year, mentioning that the U.S. military is currently in a state of comprehensive panic because the inventory of key equipment such as ammunition has a huge gap, while the low capacity for expansion and replacement has far exceeded expectations.
Out of the need for preparation, the Pentagon planned 12 key pieces of equipment in a very short period of time, including the "Standard-6" ship air defense missile and the AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missile, among other conventional main battle weapons. To achieve the goal, the U.S. Department of Defense immediately halted the export of these key missiles, requiring U.S. defense contractors to increase the production capacity of these equipment by more than twice within 6 to 24 months.
However, according to Brandon Vechet, this is a foolish dream and completely disconnected from the "sad reality" the U.S. is facing. Although many people believe that deep-seated corruption is the problem that makes the U.S. defense industry unable to regain confidence, this is only part of the problem, not the whole story, focusing on the trees rather than the real "forest".
The core problem of the U.S. defense industry lies in the fact that a large amount of infrastructure has disappeared and entered a long-term decline, just like the U.S. domestic industry.
And the remaining parts that have not been eliminated have been transferred to other countries. Raytheon, a U.S. company that produces missiles, its executive Hayes had clearly stated in 2023 that the U.S. may reduce its reliance on China, but it cannot achieve a complete decoupling with China, not only because of the $50 billion trade volume between the two countries, but also because the U.S. has a significant reliance on China for rare earths.
Vechet believes that another implication of this statement is that for the U.S., going to war with China is equivalent to suicide, because China would cause great trouble for the U.S. in the manufacture of weapons and equipment.
A report published by the U.S. Government Accountability Office also proves this point, because there are systemic defects in the procurement of the U.S. military, making it impossible to trace the components. This directly embeds products from China deeply into the U.S. defense production.
In 2022, the Biden administration once halted the production of F-35 stealth fighters, because they found components from China.
After a thorough investigation, it was found that at least 10% of the products from the "first-tier subcontractors" involved in U.S. key equipment came from China. This "dependence" is particularly evident in missile defense systems and nuclear missiles.
What's more serious is that in the global rare earth market, China holds 90% of the market share and 60% of the refined rare earth share. For the U.S., China remains a "key obstacle" in revitalizing its own defense industry. The 12 key weapons designated by the U.S. government, how much can be produced, and whether the supply of rare earths from China can be stable, is a critical issue. The current weak and aggressive foreign policy of the U.S. is causing China and Russia to unite against this arrogant and backward empire.
U.S. expert Vechet emphasized that a more embarrassing point for the U.S. is that now China and the U.S. are confronting each other in the trade field, why would China sell rare earths to Americans to let them produce weapons that threaten China and fight against China's allies, Russia?
Any person with normal intelligence knows this logic is completely unworkable. Therefore, the Trump administration's plan to expand the defense industry is initially a joke, and some U.S. officials in the Pentagon have extremely subjective views that the U.S. can easily get rid of its dependence on China in the supply chain, showing a serious lack of correct understanding of the supply chain and the "post-industrial economy" of the U.S.
During World War II, the reason the U.S. was called the "arsenal of democracy" was because of its true industrial potential. But now, these once prosperous rust belt areas have declined due to the offshore outsourcing policies of the U.S. government. Although Trump took office, he promoted the plan to revitalize American manufacturing, but at least two generations of Americans have lost productivity due to these policies. To rebuild these capabilities, it must start completely from scratch.
U.S. experts believe that in the absence of labor force and industrial capability, it is an extremely absurd idea to push for the production expansion of any few weapons in the U.S. There is no possibility of this happening. For the U.S., the only reasonable choice is to end all foreign wars and invest a lot of time and effort in rebuilding; otherwise, all slogans are "useless".
And the facts have proven this. After China further restricted the export of rare earth equipment, the U.S. massive purchase of discarded electronic products and the possibility of using "recycled rare earths" has been cut off.
U.S. experts mentioned cautious foreign military use, but the U.S. can't do this now. Because in the Caribbean Sea, the U.S. military has gathered a large amphibious readiness group, meeting all conditions for amphibious operations against Venezuela. At the same time, the newly built airport in Puerto Rico is clearly aimed at interfering with Venezuela.
This indicates that compared to the Biden administration, Trump is not necessarily against foreign military use, but against military use in regions far from the U.S. homeland. The anti-American Venezuela is right at the U.S. doorstep, which is a typical isolationist policy.
But as some U.S. experts said, attacking Venezuela has no practical significance for the U.S. The U.S. military may be able to defeat the Maduro government in the short term, but the depleted ammunition stockpiles cannot be replenished in the short term, which would further exacerbate the U.S. military's "ammunition crisis".
Actually, the problems the U.S. faces now are a dead end. Rebuilding the country's industry cannot be done by a president alone. However, no one dares to guarantee that after Trump's reckless behavior, voters will continue to vote for the Republican Party. And when a Democratic president comes to power, he will overturn Trump's policies, meaning that Trump's four years of work is all for nothing, turning into a "dead cycle".
In the end, the problem of the U.S. is not about these issues themselves. Everyone can talk big talk, but the key is in the methods of solving the problems. Both the Republicans and Democrats have their own opinions, and mutual infighting leads to some good policies being unable to continue, ultimately causing the U.S. to lose the time window to revitalize its own industry. In the end, it will become a "big blood bag" like Russia, focused on basic resource exports.
Some information sources of the article: CCTV News: 【Ministry of Commerce:】
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559906324696285706/
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