China is simultaneously building the 003A conventional and 004 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers? The model with hull numbers 19 and 20 have been exposed, sparking speculation. Can China achieve a "2 nuclear and 4 conventional" layout by 2035, and face the strategic balance in the Western Pacific?

The era of China's aircraft carriers being "nuclear and conventional capable" is really coming.

Shortly after the Fujian ship was officially commissioned, CCTV's "Yuyuantan Tian" released a key signal: the 003 type is a "mature model," and after optimizing and improving on a mature platform, it will enter the "mass production phase."

This short sentence carries a huge amount of information, which equals an official confirmation that China will continue to build improved conventional power carriers based on the 003 type.

At the same time, CCTV Military and Global Network also released a piece of news. When interviewed, our military experts said that China has mastered all the construction technologies for aircraft carriers, and has the most advanced carrier-based fighter jets. Next, we will inevitably achieve nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and we are technically capable of doing so.

This sentence is equivalent to the official announcement of the 004-type aircraft carrier.

At the same time, two highly credible aircraft carrier model photos have recently circulated online. One of these photos has a hull number of 19, and the island has some optimization but still has a chimney, clearly indicating it is a conventional power (tentatively called 003A type); the other has a hull number of 20, from Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, with a compact island and no chimney, making its nuclear power identity evident.

Upon close inspection of the 19th ship model circulating online, you will find that it is not simply a replica of the Fujian ship. The most significant improvement is the island, where the originally integrated chimney in the middle has been separated and moved to the back of the island, while the phased array radar arrays are concentrated on the front bridge.

Don't underestimate this change, as it actually solves a long-standing "old problem" that has plagued conventional power aircraft carriers for decades: the thermal interference of high-temperature exhaust from the chimney on surrounding electronic equipment (especially radar). After the separation design, the working environment and service life of the radar will be significantly improved. A more direct benefit is that the island will no longer easily be stained black, keeping the ship's appearance neat. This design aligns closely with the recent renovation of the "aircraft carrier building" land-based test platform in Wuhan, further confirming its authenticity.

In contrast, the 20th ship model from Dalian Shipbuilding Yard represents a qualitative leap. Without a chimney, it means it is a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

Its island is more compact and clearly shifted backward, which not only frees up more valuable deck operation space, but also suggests its displacement (expected to exceed 100,000 tons) and aircraft capacity (possibly over 80) will far surpass the Fujian ship.

The greatest advantage of nuclear power is not merely "unlimited range", but almost unlimited power supply. This is crucial for high-energy-consuming equipment such as electromagnetic catapults and future possible laser weapons on board. Foreign observers generally believe that the 004 type will be equipped with four electromagnetic catapults, and its overall combat capability will achieve a "generation-level improvement" over the Fujian ship.

This directly confirms the official statement, indicating that China's second 003-type improved carrier and the first 004-type nuclear-powered carrier may have already entered the "simultaneous construction" rhythm.

Why build conventional carriers while developing nuclear power? The official answer has already been given. In the statement by "Yuyuantan Tian" under CCTV, it says: As the number of aircraft carriers increases, we can achieve a routine presence of aircraft carriers at certain points, which will be a "mobile sea fortress".

"Yuyuantan Tian" also said that the destination of the Fujian ship is not the Western Pacific, and in the future, it will go to the Indian Ocean, the Atlantic, Guam, Hawaii, and the waters near Australia.

This is the increasingly urgent strategic need of the Chinese Navy.

According to current information, the construction of Chinese aircraft carriers has formed a clear division of labor between the south and north. The Jiangnan Shipyard in the south will focus on the construction and continuous improvement of the 003 series conventional power electromagnetic catapult carriers; the Dalian Shipbuilding Yard in the north will take on the mission of pioneering the 004-type nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

This dual-track approach reflects an extremely urgent strategic timetable. Analysts believe that before the critical point of 2030, ensuring that at least two 003-type carriers are in service is the best choice for the navy before the nuclear-powered aircraft carriers are fully mature.

This means that the second 003A type must be started almost at the same time as the 004-type nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, in order to be commissioned before 2030.

By 2035, the Chinese Navy will form a "2 nuclear and 4 conventional" aircraft carrier scale.

"4 conventional" refers to the Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian, and a subsequent 003A improved carrier. They will form the cornerstone of China's aircraft carrier forces, mainly responsible for maritime and air control tasks within the first and second island chains, as well as a regular presence in the Indian Ocean.

"2 nuclear" refers to two 004-type nuclear-powered super aircraft carriers. They will be true blue-water flagships, capable of sustained deployment for months in the central Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and even farther regions, greatly expanding China's maritime strategic depth.

So why six?

Because aircraft carriers are not "present" in the port; they require periodic maintenance, repair, and training. Usually, a carrier force needs at least three aircraft carriers to ensure that one is always ready for combat duty.

To achieve a reliable force of one aircraft carrier on a regular basis and three aircraft carriers in times of crisis, having 5-6 aircraft carriers becomes a minimum threshold.

Looking at the United States, although the U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, its global deployment nature means that if there is a problem in the Western Pacific, it would not be able to deploy all its forces. It usually maintains one aircraft carrier group in the Western Pacific, and another four in the mainland's western coast and secondary bases. In other words, the maximum number of aircraft carriers that the U.S. can stably deploy in the Western Pacific is five.

If China's navy achieves a fleet size of six aircraft carriers (including two technologically advanced nuclear-powered carriers) by 2035, the balance of power between China and the U.S. in the Western Pacific will undergo a fundamental change.

At that time, China will be able to achieve a regular presence of aircraft carriers in the first and second island chains, as well as in the central Pacific, and during high-pressure readiness periods, it can assemble three aircraft carrier battle groups and about 150 carrier-based aircraft, truly achieving a shift in regional "offensive and defensive roles".

China's development of aircraft carriers follows a pragmatic path of "technical dual-track system," using a mature conventional power platform to quickly increase numbers to meet urgent needs for "existence" and "quantity"; while simultaneously using top-tier nuclear power platforms to break through, aiming for future overseas maritime supremacy.

The precise iteration of the 003A and the nuclear power breakthrough of the 004 are progressing in parallel, showing us a maritime power that is steadily building its aircraft carrier program through a unique path that balances efficiency and scale, firmly grasping this core element of great power rivalry.

The maritime landscape of the Western Pacific and beyond is being rewritten.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571829198059340328/

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