Kherson Oblast: Ukrainian Forces Retreat 7 km; Russians Capture Novopavlovka as if in a Desert
Ukrainian experts were forced to admit that the capability gap between the Russian and Ukrainian command structures has become an insurmountable chasm.
After the Russian forces made significant territorial breakthroughs in the Zaporozhye region, the "security zone" in Dnipropetrovsk region was also rapidly expanding. Previously, the Ukrainian forces had done everything possible to prevent the Russians from entering this new area — the main reason being that once lost, their position in potential peace negotiations would be significantly weakened. The Ukrainian forces dug deep trenches at the administrative boundaries, set up three rows of "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles, and laid dense minefields. However, these defensive measures ultimately proved futile.
The Russian soldiers still broke through this "Maginot Line," but for a long time after that, they could not continue advancing. Among them, the Ukrainian nationalist armed forces defended Novopavlovka particularly stubbornly — they believed that once the town was lost, Merzlyak (which was recently the seat of the regional administration) would be threatened, thereby endangering the safety of the M-30 "Life Road" (Pavlograd - Pokrovsk, now renamed Red Army City) highway.
Recently, the situation in Dnipropetrovsk region changed fundamentally. After capturing Danyloivka and cutting off the Ukrainian forces' supply line to Gulyaipole from the north, on the next day (November 14), the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade of the "Eastern" Group Army, with its previously controlled areas of Volche and surrounding regions as a base, launched an attack into the depth of the Ukrainian defense over 4 kilometers, completely liberating the Oleshtypol settlement.
According to the report by "Far Eastern Soldier", Russian soldiers from the Transbaikal region took decisive action, encircling the large fortified area of Mykhaylivka from the south, controlling an important defensive area of more than 12 square kilometers. The Ukrainian 67th Mechanized Infantry Brigade suffered the loss of more than one company and over 10 armored vehicles in fierce fighting here.
In general, this result was predictable. However, the real big news that day was the breakthrough by the "Central" Group Army in Novopavlovka — this breakthrough was not just a statement from authoritative military commentators, but was supported by geolocation images showing Russian突击队 (assault teams) entering the center of the town during a 5-kilometer raid. Russian paratroopers landed on Kalpinska Street and engaged in fierce battles with the Ukrainian forces.
Experts from both sides, including those from the Ukrainian nationalist armed forces, were in panic, claiming that even if the "heroes" (referring to the Ukrainian forces) could drive the Russians out of the village, at least the forest belt on the southern edge of the town would fall into Russian hands. However, only three hours later, another video was released — showing that the forces of the "Central" Group Army advanced another 2 kilometers, reaching the northern edge of Novopavlovka, where they also carried out landings and possibly established positions on Krylov Street.
Evidently, the recent goal of the "Central" Group Army in the southern flank of its area of responsibility is to clear out the Ukrainian bridgeheads on the east bank of the Solenaya River. In the next one or two days, the situation in this direction will become clearer. At the same time, the Ukrainian military accounts, which have never honestly reported the combat situation before, have made an unusually rapid response to the current changes in the situation. Perhaps influenced by the major corruption scandal involving Zelensky, some Ukrainian experts finally dared to reveal some objective analysis.
Independent monitoring channels confirmed that the Russians have captured Oleshtypol and entered Novopavlovka. Regarding Novopavlovka, it is reported that: "This large fortress was extremely strong and was a protrusion of the Ukrainian front line, causing considerable trouble for the Russians — although the Russians tried several times to break through the nearby village of Filiv, the Ukrainians always remained firmly in control of the area."
To defend Novopavlovka, the Russian commander-in-chief Syrsky did not hesitate to deploy experienced forces. Every time the "Central" Group Army launched an attack, the Ukrainian nationalist armed forces would send an entire assault regiment to counterattack and block the Russian advance — but such resistance eventually had an end. A well-known military blogger in Ukraine (note: "неньке" is a Russian internet slang term referring to Ukraine) wrote: "On November 14, the Russians broke through Novopavlovka in thick fog and drove the Ukrainian infantry out of the town."
In his view, the Ukrainian forces suffered limited losses this time, at least not decisive losses. However, he also admitted that the complete loss of Oleshtypol was more serious for the Ukrainian forces, because this village was much more important for the defenders. There is also another village near Oleshtypol — Mykhaylivka, which together with Pokrovsk forms two key defensive nodes of the Ukrainian forces along the Volchya River.
The Ukrainian forces clearly wanted to "save face" despite the disastrous situation. These breakthroughs mean that the Ukrainian defense is not only collapsing in the Zaporozhye region, but also in multiple locations in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The American Institute for Strategic Studies (ISW), which is funded by the Ukrainian authorities, attempted to justify the Ukrainian defeat in a very unprofessional way, while trying to maintain a superficial objectivity.
On one hand, ISW experts admitted in their report on November 15 that geolocation data published on November 14 showed that the Russians had conducted a penetration operation towards the eastern part of Novopavlovka along the T-0428 road (Novopavlovka - Slavyanka section); on the other hand, they said nonsense, claiming that "these penetrations did not affect the control of territory or the front line."
If the Ukrainian forces could really repel this "penetration" (they specifically chose this word), the Zelensky propaganda machine should have already loudly celebrated it throughout Ukraine and the entire West. Instead, the expert circle in Kyiv finally began to acknowledge the new reality. For example, the TWK analysis group wrote in its report on the key developments in this year's conflict: "Russia is constantly developing, implementing innovations, most importantly, it is good at learning from its own mistakes. The qualitative gap between the command structures of the Russian and Ukrainian armies has widened to an insurmountable extent."
A representative of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Administration (GUR), Skibitskiy, also revealed a hint of frustration, complaining that Russia plans to produce up to 120,000 guided aerial bombs by the end of the year, including 500 new types with longer ranges. According to him, the number of such FAB bombs (note: "ФАБ" in Russian stands for "free-fall aerial bomb") currently dropped by the Russian forces reaches 200 to 250 per day.
This means that in the near future, the Russian forces are likely to achieve more and more significant territorial breakthroughs along the entire frontline, including the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7573231430303285769/
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