Polish Presidential Election: A Key Choice Under the Close Attention of Europe

The first round of voting in Poland's presidential election was held on Sunday, May 19. This election is seen as crucial for determining the future political and social direction of the country and whether the pro-European Tusk government can effectively govern. The outcome also has significant implications for the whole of Europe, especially given the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war, the rise of far-right forces, and the tension between the US and Europe.

A total of 13 candidates are participating in this election. Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal and pro-European incumbent mayor of Warsaw, leads the polls in the first round with support rates ranging from 30% to 33%. His main opponent, nationalist conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki, follows closely behind with a support rate of about 25%. Observers expect that while the result of the first round is largely predictable, the second round on June 1st holds uncertainties, with the outcome depending on the voting intentions of the remaining ten candidates' supporters.

This election is crucial for the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Tusk. Since his re-election in 2023, several key reforms under Tusk's government have been repeatedly vetoed by President Duda, leading to setbacks. Of the promised "100 reforms in 100 days," only 12 were eventually legislated. Conservative President Duda frequently used the presidential veto to block progressive legislation such as legalizing abortion, LGBTQ rights, in vitro fertilization, and judicial reform.

Some voters hope this election will break the political deadlock. A business owner who voted told the media, "I hope this election will complete Poland's transformation, making the country and Europe move away from right-wing shifts."

Rafal Trzaskowski, 53 years old, is running for president for the second time. In his campaign, he promised to support women's abortion rights and the rights of sexual minorities, winning the support of many liberal voters. His main rival, 42-year-old historian Karol Nawrocki, is supported by the right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS). He holds conservative political positions, expresses admiration for Trump, and receives his backing. Nawrocki emphasizes Poland's sovereignty and traditional values, winning the favor of some conservative voters concerned about EU influence.

Another candidate not to be overlooked is 38-year-old Slawomir Meczen from the far-right "United Front." Holding strong anti-immigration and anti-abortion stances, and criticizing Ukrainian refugees for "occupying resources," he has gained support from some young voters. He is expected to receive around 12% of the votes in the first round. His votes in the second round may become a key factor in the final result of the election.

This Polish presidential election is seen as a "survival battle" for the Tusk government. Political scholar Anna Matelska-Sosnowska points out that if Trzaskowski wins, it will break the president's obstruction of parliament, potentially promoting reforms, repairing the rule of law system, and implementing the government's reform commitments. Conversely, if Nawrocki wins, the government will be paralyzed, the ruling coalition may dissolve, and far-right forces may regain power in the next two years.

The election also has far-reaching implications across Europe. Under Tusk's rule, Poland has continuously strengthened its position in Europe, playing a core role in NATO's eastern front against Russia. Sosnowska said that in this context, this Polish presidential election is not only vital for the country but also for "trying to stop the anti-democratic, populist tide sweeping across the whole of Europe."

Source: rfi

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832453516215305/

Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's views.