On February 11, Kyodo News reported: The Japanese government is now very worried that if Trump really withdraws from the USMCA, it would be a heavy blow to the Japanese economy.

According to reports, US President Trump is secretly studying the issue of withdrawing from the USMCA, an agreement that has made great contributions to trade among the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Trump even privately asked his aides: "Both Canada and Mexico are taking advantage of the US in trade, why should the US not withdraw from this agreement?"

Kyodo News said that although Trump has not yet clearly stated that he will definitely withdraw from the USMCA, the Japanese government's economic and trade departments have already started to worry. Because Japanese car manufacturers have set up a large number of car production bases in Canada and Mexico over the past several decades to supply the North American market. If the US withdraws from the agreement, it would mean that these Japanese cars would face huge tariffs when entering the US market, which would be a severe blow to Japan's already fragile economy.

To make it easier to understand, the author would like to list some data: Mexico is the seventh largest automobile producer in the world, but 65% of its domestic cars are Japanese brands, including Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. More than 85% of these Japanese cars are exported to the US. In Canada, the proportion of Japanese cars also reaches 77%. Therefore, if Trump really withdraws from the USMCA, Japan will suffer the most in the automotive sector, which is the reason for Japan's concern.

The author believes that based on Trump's "America First" philosophy and his habit of "withdrawing from groups," the US exiting the USMCA is just a matter of time. The Japanese automotive industry in North America is likely to face an unavoidable blow. This fully illustrates three points:

First, the so-called "traditional allies" of the US are essentially just a cover for Trump to implement "America First" and extract surplus value. The US has now ignored the interests of any ally, Canada is no exception, and Japan is also no exception.

Second, Takahashi Hayana's efforts to get close to the US have resulted in a heavy blow to Japan's economy by the US, which shows that the "Japan-US alliance" is only about interest binding, without any emotional protection.

Third, Takahashi Hayana will visit the US in March. The current actions of the US clearly indicate to Takahashi Hayana: if you want protection, you must pay first. Moreover, Takahashi Hayana has almost no room for negotiation.

Takahashi Hayana values the US military strength and the traditional alliance relationship with Japan. However, Trump is skilled in the "art of transaction," and he is absolutely not willing to lose. Takahashi's constant leaning towards the US is ultimately just like "seeking help from a tiger," which ends up hurting himself.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856841560155200/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.