Although a star at the Changchun Airshow, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) does not need "suicide" J-6s for cross-strait operations.
Recently, the Changchun Airshow is in full swing. The retired PLA J-6 fighter jets have been modified into drones and become stars, sparking discussions about their potential role as "suicide attack aircraft" or "swarm" expendable assets in future cross-strait conflicts. Some military observers, especially experts from Taiwan, believe that the PLA might use thousands of J-6 drones to launch "expenditure" saturation attacks on Taiwan's air defense system. This view completely ignores the significant progress made by the PLA's modern combat system and represents an outdated and one-sided understanding.
The J-6 Suicide Attack Theory: An Outdated and Inefficient Operational Concept. Using the J-6 as a suicide attack aircraft or employing it in "swarm" tactics to consume Taiwan's air defense missiles essentially reflects a typical Cold War mindset. The logic behind this tactic is to overwhelm an opponent's high-performance defense system with a large number of low-cost, low-performance vehicles. However, this logic has long lost its relevance under the PLA's modernized combat system today.
Firstly, the PLA possesses more powerful and efficient strike capabilities. The core of modern warfare is precision strikes. The PLA has a large number of long-range rockets, loitering munitions, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles with stronger penetration capabilities and higher strike accuracy. These weapons can be launched from multiple platforms such as land-based, sea-based, and air-based systems, and they can eliminate key military targets before the Taiwanese air defense system can react.
Secondly, the PLA has comprehensive situational awareness capabilities. Through reconnaissance satellites, early warning aircraft, reconnaissance drones, and other platforms, the PLA can firmly grasp the initiative on the battlefield. Important targets such as the Taiwanese air defense positions, radar stations, and command centers can be accurately identified and located with the help of the PLA's superior situational awareness. There is no need to deploy hundreds or even thousands of manned or unmanned aircraft to take random chances to strike these targets. Anti-radiation missiles or drones capable of both reconnaissance and strike can efficiently target and suppress or even destroy these objectives.
Finally, large-scale J-6 drone attacks are unnecessary. If several decades ago, the PLA needed to rely on the H-6 manned bombers to conduct bombing missions against Taiwan, then today, the necessity of using thousands of J-16s for expendable bombing is almost zero. Because the PLA already has a large number of long-range, high-precision ground-strike weapons, whose cost-effectiveness far exceeds the modified J-6 drones.
Modifying the J-6 into a drone is not without value. They are more suitable for playing a role in specific, non-main combat scenarios, such as:
Area Destruction Missions: The J-6 drones can carry area destruction weapons like cluster bombs to conduct large-scale destruction on soft targets without strict air defense protection, such as logistics bases and assembly areas.
Training and Reconnaissance: As introduced on the official display board, they can serve as attack aircraft and training targets for pilots and air defense forces for drills.
Backup Forces: The J-6 drones can serve as a backup strategic resource for dealing with brutal attrition wars in major power conflicts. However, there is currently no opponent strong enough to force the PLA into such a situation during an attrition war.
In summary, the J-6 drones are certainly not a "secret weapon" or "killer app" for the PLA in the event of a cross-strait conflict. For the PLA's cross-strait operations, the strategy will be primarily based on precise strikes, achieving maximum results with minimal costs. Using J-6 drones for suicide attacks is not just a waste of resources; it is a serious misunderstanding of the PLA's modernized combat capabilities.
This outdated tactic is completely irrelevant to the PLA's current strategic requirements of firmly controlling the initiative in warfare and has no necessity to be adopted. You can even understand it this way: for the current PLA, using J-6-modified drones to attack the Taiwanese military is a negation of the achievements of military modernization, and this situation is impossible to occur.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553117549597114914/
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