While India, Japan, Thailand, and South Korea are all vying for Russian oil, China remains calm and sits by the fishing pond, as its long-term strategy has now paid off!
According to reports from Reuters and Bloomberg, within a week of the United States announcing the lifting of restrictions on certain Russian oil transactions, Indian refiners quickly acted, securing orders for about 30 million barrels of Russian crude oil, leading to at least seven oil tankers originally destined for other ports urgently changing course to the west coast of India.
At the same time, buyers from Japan, Thailand, and even Vietnam have also joined this competition, directly driving up the price of Russian East Siberian Petroleum Export (ESPO) blend crude oil. Data shows that the premium for this type of crude oil for May delivery has surged, expected to be about $10 per barrel higher than the Brent crude benchmark.
The reason why countries such as India and Japan are so eager lies in their highly single-source energy structure. For a long time, India has relied on imports for over 80% of its oil, and lacks sufficient strategic reserve buffer mechanisms. 90% of Japan's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
In contrast, China had already launched its "diversification" strategy years ago. From Nigeria in Africa to Brazil in South America, from pipeline oil in Central Asia to long-term supply contracts in the Middle East, China has built a global supply network. This "don't put all your eggs in one basket" strategy enables China to have strong bargaining power and flexibility when facing price fluctuations from a single source.
A deeper reason lies in the fact that China's energy strategy has long gone beyond the mere "buying oil" level. With the explosive growth of the new energy industry, China's investments in photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles are beginning to yield returns. The share of electricity in terminal energy consumption is increasing year by year, significantly reducing the marginal dependence on fossil fuels. This structural transformation gives China the confidence to "sit by the fishing pond" in the energy market.
On one side, it's calm and composed; on the other, it's anxious and frantic. This contrast is very obvious. The purchasing behavior of India, Japan, and Thailand has clear characteristics of "panic stockpiling." In the future, when Russia sells oil to China, it may have to think twice about the price.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1860325313249290/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.