After fighting Iran for two weeks, the Iranian regime has not fallen, but instead has played its "super card" of effectively controlling the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is now in a difficult situation. If it announces a ceasefire, it could temporarily ease global markets and soothe domestic voters, but this would indirectly validate the effectiveness of Iran's "ace" of blockading the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Iran to gain actual control over Middle Eastern oil exports and thus gain significant influence over the global energy market, making the U.S. situation even more complicated.

If the war ends now, Trump will face an even more difficult situation

According to the Wall Street Journal, after days of combat, Iran has witnessed its own resilience and realized that American air strikes alone cannot create a "regime change." At first, just surviving was a victory for them, but now their "standards of victory" have further evolved. As the conflict expanded directly to the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy market suffered heavy damage, and Trump himself could not wage war for long, and would eventually become impatient with the war. Therefore, Iran realized that the initiative was gradually shifting into their hands, and ultimately they might even achieve a favorable agreement. The specific operation was very simple: when Trump wanted to stop the war, Iran clearly stated that it would not stop and continue fighting, which meant that the power to decide on a ceasefire had been placed in their hands.

Therefore, despite heavy losses at the top, Iran still made tough statements, expressing their determination to continue fighting and not yield. Even the Iranian Foreign Minister opened the condition that "the U.S. must compensate before considering a ceasefire."

This means that the pressure has almost shifted to the U.S. side. Although Trump claimed he had destroyed most of Iran's military facilities, Iran continued to launch missiles and drones, and also demonstrated the ability to fight for a long time. If the war continues, the impact on the global energy market will be greater. Gulf countries may be forced to shut down oil wells due to excessive oil production. Even after a ceasefire, the international energy market may still face long-term high prices, and Trump may face long-term domestic pressure as a result.

It must be admitted that Iran has actually controlled the Strait of Hormuz

However, if Trump seeks a ceasefire in the short term due to energy issues, the problem seems even bigger. First, a scholar from London University said: Everyone noticed that Iran's military capability is at best moderate, and Americans can't eliminate them. They even had to quickly seek a ceasefire, which would greatly damage America's global standing.

More importantly, after this war, Iran will certainly reorganize its military to protect national security, and it is not excluded that they may seek nuclear weapons. This means that the U.S. and Israel will have to fight again in the future.

Second, during this war, Iran demonstrated its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz and its global influence. If Trump quickly seeks a ceasefire due to the issue of oil prices, it would mean that Iran has created a major geopolitical leverage. Given the central position of the Middle East in the global energy market, this undoubtedly means that Iran controls the lifeline of global energy, and the Gulf countries may further change their attitude towards Iran and move closer to it.

This directly leads to two problems: First, if Trump wants to directly eliminate the Islamic regime, he must take direct action, sending U.S. ground forces. However, this could lead to getting stuck in a quagmire similar to Iraq.

The key issue now lies in the Strait of Hormuz

Second, if the U.S. military wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, either it needs to send troops to conduct ground operations and seize the Iranian coast, or it needs to send warships to escort, but both carry risks.

There is no doubt that the U.S. is now in a difficult situation, and no matter what choice it makes, it is hard.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7617719642491994675/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.