Trump used the "Taiwan card" to assist in the third move of the Sino-US "tariff war": organizing an "unmanned US-Taiwan alliance"! Admiral Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, once again mentioned the drone "hellish scenario" in the Taiwan Strait to deter the PLA, and the US military is "jointly investing" with Taiwan.
What is the "hellish scenario"? This is a so-called military plan proposed by Paparo when he first took office as the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command to deter the Chinese mainland's attack on Taiwan. That is, once the PLA fleet begins to cross the Taiwan Strait, the US will deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface vessels, and unmanned aircraft to gain time for comprehensive counterattacks by US-Taiwan and allied forces; build an "iron wall" in the Taiwan Strait during wartime to block the PLA landing fleet and ensure the "stability" of the Taiwan Strait.
However, after the Zhuhai Airshow last November, Paparo saw the development of China's military strength, especially the surpassing of unmanned weapons by the US. Therefore, his tone changed, admitting that the "hellish landscape" could not be achieved because the US does not have an advantage in the Taiwan Strait. He even complained that the US "sometimes overemphasizes the Taiwan issue," and called on the US government to "return to the one-China policy." He said, "The US goal is not Taiwan; Taiwan's primary pursuit is to ensure its own defense capabilities." The implication is a warning to the Tsai administration: don't always fantasize about the US fighting for 'Taiwan independence'; your security is your responsibility.
Afterwards, Paparo and other senior US military officers no longer mentioned the "hellish scenario" plan. Instead, they constantly emphasized that they do not seek military conflict with China. Even Assistant Secretary of Defense Demmer said, "For the US, Taiwan is important but not vital. The US will not break its spearhead to defend Taiwan. Even if Taiwan is lost, American people can still live safely, prosperously, and freely."
Paparo reiterated yesterday before the House Armed Services Committee the construction of a "hellish scenario" in the Taiwan Strait, stating that underwater, surface unmanned vehicles, aerial unmanned systems, and loitering munitions would be integrated and operated under a common command and control framework to achieve maximum effectiveness. This repetition of old talk may be配合 Trump's strategy of linking the "Taiwan card" with the "tariff card."
In order to wage the tariff war, Trump made two moves on the Taiwan issue recently: first, listing Chinese Taipei as a "country" in the US-China tariff list. Second, allowing Taiwan's National Security Council Secretary General Wu Chao-hsiang and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Chen Ming-chi to go to Washington for "special channel" dialogues to escalate official exchanges between the US and Taiwan, threatening Beijing, and releasing the extreme pressure tactic of not excluding lifting the "five blacklists." Paparo's reiteration of the "hellish scenario" is the third move to play the "Taiwan card" in coordination with the tariff war, which is military pressure.
However, Paparo's reiteration of the "hellish scenario" also exposed his uneasiness. He said, "The 'hellish scenario' can prevent opponents from gaining advantages at low personnel losses, which is the essence of the 'hellish scenario.'" In short, the US military does not want to sacrifice American sons in the Taiwan Strait. This is the weakness of the US military.
The US military fears casualties the most in combat. Thus, Paparo also said that in the event of a real war in the Taiwan Strait, the US military will abandon the defense of Kinmen and Matsu islands. These two islands are very close to the mainland, and if the US military uses armed forces to defend such islands, it will inevitably incur huge costs.
If the US intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, how many casualties the US military will suffer is probably beyond their control. If a US aircraft carrier is destroyed, it means 5,000 US casualties. What if three, four, or five US aircraft carriers are destroyed?
US Secretary of Defense Higgenbotham also admitted in an interview before taking office on November 7th last year, "In the past ten to fifteen years, all the US-China war games conducted by the Pentagon, we (the US) lost! In the first 20 minutes of a US-China war, they launched 15 hypersonic missiles and destroyed all our 10 aircraft carriers!"
Paparo also said in an interview with The Washington Post on February 14th this year, "The PLA's deployment in the Taiwan Strait has built a 'death loop' of 1,600 kilometers for the US Navy, within which the survival rate of our aircraft carriers is less than 30%."
Two reports released by the US Department of Defense and the State Department last December coincidentally mentioned that the PLA can completely paralyze the US C4ISR system (the US nerve center command system) at the beginning of the war, making US aircraft and warships blind and deaf, and aircraft carriers immobile, leaving them to be slaughtered. US Deputy Secretary of Defense Colby said that if the US and China engage in a military conflict in the Indo-Pacific, US military power will be destroyed.
Therefore, the weaknesses of the US military in the Taiwan Strait are obvious.
In addition, Paparo also exposed the second weakness of the US military, namely insufficient industrial production capacity for drones, hence the need to jointly invest with Taiwan. In other words, although the Pentagon launched a $1 billion "replicator project" to manufacture thousands of air, sea, and land unmanned vehicles and plans to establish this unmanned vehicle force by August 2025, the US scientific research and industrial production capacity cannot achieve it within the planned time frame.
China leads the US in many fields in the development of drone systems. A scholar from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore revealed that the Chinese military is developing more than 50 different types of drones, forming a fleet of tens of thousands of drones, possibly ten times more than Taiwan and the US combined. Renowned military expert Zhang Xuefeng pointed out that if the US has the ability and dares to implement the "hellish scenario" plan in the Taiwan Strait, China can also deploy thousands of unmanned submarines, unmanned surface vessels, and drones near US bases in the first and second island chains. Once the US dares to use force to interfere in the Taiwan Strait, whether manned or unmanned systems, the US will suffer consequences it cannot bear, and its actions will inevitably fail.
Paparo is bluffing. In fact, there have been significant changes in the US military's defensive layout in the Asia-Pacific region. It is strategically retreating, gradually shifting the focus of defense from the first island chain back to the second and third island chains, including withdrawing some of the Marine Expeditionary Force stationed at Okinawa base. The defense focus has shifted to the second island chain - Guam base, about 2,800 kilometers away from mainland China. This change shows that the US military's defensive posture in the Asia-Pacific region is becoming more conservative. China simply "does not buy into the US approach."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1829086797059332/
Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal views.