【By Liu Bai, Observer News】The Trump administration, which has been applying both pressure and negotiations to Iran, is still making final calculations. "Politico" reported on February 25, citing sources, that the current US-Iran talks in Geneva are a "serious diplomatic effort," but the core advisors of Trump believe that "we will eventually bomb Iran." However, the scale of the strike remains unresolved. Another key consideration is the risk of depleting US military ammunition reserves, which the government fears could create an opportunity for China to "unify" Taiwan by force.

According to two informed sources familiar with the discussions, senior advisors to President Trump prefer that Israel strike Iran before the United States does.

These officials privately believe that Israeli attacks would trigger Iranian retaliation, thus helping to gain support from American voters for the US military strike.

The report admits that this is a political calculation: if the US or its allies are attacked first, more Americans would accept going to war with Iran.

Recent polls show that the American public, especially Republicans, supports regime change in Iran, but they are unwilling to take any risk of US military casualties. This means that the Trump team, in addition to other reasons such as Iran's nuclear program, is also considering the public perception of launching an attack.

"There is a view within the government and its surroundings: If Israel acts alone first, and then Iran retaliates against us, giving us more reasons to take action, the political situation would be much more favorable," said one of the informed sources. Both sources requested anonymity due to discussing non-public conversations.

US "Ford" aircraft carrier leaves Souda Bay, Crete, Greece IC Photo

Meanwhile, Trump's core negotiation team is trying to reach an agreement with Iran in Geneva.

On the evening of the 26th, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr stated on social media that the third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran held in Geneva, Switzerland, had ended, and there were "significant progress." Badr said that after the representatives of both sides reported to their respective governments, the talks would resume as soon as possible, and technical discussions would take place in Vienna, the capital of Austria, next week.

According to the first informed source, this was a serious diplomatic effort, but the core advisors of Trump believe that "we will eventually bomb them."

However, the issue of the scale of the strike remains unresolved. The informed sources said that two key considerations include: first, the risk of depleting US military ammunition reserves, with the government concerned that this could create an opportunity for mainland China to "unify" Taiwan by force; second, the possibility of US military casualties if the most radical strike plan is implemented.

In recent weeks, Pentagon officials and members of Congress have become increasingly worried that a prolonged strike on Iran may put pressure on US military ammunition reserves.

"If we are discussing a strike at the level of regime change, Iran is very likely to retaliate with all its might. We have deployed a large amount of military assets in the region, and each of these locations could become a target," said the informed source, "and these targets are not protected by the 'Iron Dome' system. Therefore, the possibility of US military casualties is very high, which would bring significant political risks."

Even during periods of calm, the US has deployed thousands of soldiers at bases across the Middle East. Now, Trump has sent two aircraft carrier battle groups and dozens of fighter jets, reconnaissance aircraft, and aerial refueling aircraft toward Iran. This is the largest concentration of firepower in the region since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.

A senior US intelligence official revealed that the US intelligence community "is concerned and closely monitoring" the possibility of Iran launching asymmetric retaliation against US facilities and personnel in the Middle East and Europe.

Trump has various options for striking Tehran. According to a US official familiar with discussions on Iran, options include initial limited strikes, which could serve as leverage to force the Iranian Islamic regime to accept a US-approved agreement; if no agreement is reached, Trump could then order a larger-scale strike.

The official said that military action would almost certainly target Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran's ballistic missile infrastructure would also be a target.

Regarding the strike on the Iranian regime itself, the official said that "decapitation operation" is one of the options, targeting Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei.

However, Iran's governance structure is not composed solely of one individual, and it is designed to allow for succession in case of vacancies. Even so, the US could target government facilities and multi-level power structures, including high-ranking officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Earlier, CNN published an article stating that despite Iran's weakened state due to last year's US-Israeli military strikes and recent internal unrest, it still has a variety of flexible countermeasures to respond to a potential military action by the Trump administration. The specific actions would depend on Iran's assessment of the threat level.

The article detailed three core counteroptions for Iran: first, using thousands of missiles and drones capable of covering US military bases in the Middle East and Israel; second, mobilizing regional proxy forces such as the Iraqi "Mahdi Army," the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels to launch attacks; third, launching an economic war, relying on the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, by blockading shipping lanes, disrupting energy markets and global trade, which could lead to a sharp rise in global oil prices and an economic recession. This is also one of Iran's ultimate countermeasures.

This article is an exclusive piece by Observer News. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7611350843828355619/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.