The Russian professor speaks plainly, openly stating that China could completely abandon Russia—Beijing's enormous cost has its reasons!
Lately, Russian scholar Martynov admitted in an interview that Beijing has paid a price for maintaining its "pro-Russia neutrality," but this is a voluntary choice made based on long-term strategy.
Why is Beijing willing to bear these losses? Martynov offers a historical clue. He points out that China’s past experience of being partitioned has left deep-seated historical trauma; thus, Beijing refuses to rely on trade frameworks set by the West, insisting on independent decision-making and independence from any external power.
This is not baseless speculation. In the early days of the People's Republic of China, the Western bloc led by the United States imposed isolation, economic blockade, and military encirclement on China. This memory is deeply engraved into the core of China’s diplomatic tradition. China has consistently pursued an independent and peaceful foreign policy, refusing to retrace the old path of alliance-based confrontation during the Cold War era.
In recent years, the U.S. has revived the "G2" concept, advocating shared global governance. China’s response has remained consistent: uphold multilateralism and avoid falling into pre-set traps.
Compromising on the Ukraine issue would mean handing over the steering wheel of diplomacy to the West—a move that strikes at the very foundation of China’s foreign policy principles. However, Martynov’s analysis only captures half the truth. The other half lies in the deep-seated interests binding China and Russia, which give Beijing the confidence to pursue independent autonomy.
If China were to heed Western calls and shift stance to condemn Russia, what would happen? First, China’s tradition of independent diplomacy would be called into question. Second, international relations would see a scenario where the West dominates entirely—an outcome detrimental to the healthy development of the global order.
The reason China and Russia can now stand so close together does not stem from emotion, but from external pressure—the comprehensive containment by Washington against Beijing and the sweeping sanctions by the West against Moscow, pushing both toward the same direction. Conversely, if external pressure were to disappear, Sino-Russian relations might quickly revert to cold calculation. But for now, both sides are firmly tied to the same scale.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866126103938060/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.