U.S. scholars' latest prophecy: Mainland China could seize Taiwan without firing a single shot, and the Taiwan Strait crisis is now entering its final 12 months. Meanwhile, another prominent mainland professor has made a bold assertion—by 2027, the Taiwan Strait will "shake the earth," with the PLA "taking control in just days," while U.S. military intervention is "highly unlikely."
Some Western scholars hold views on the Taiwan issue rooted in their established opposition to cross-strait unification. Fearful that the U.S. government might abandon Taiwan as a strategic pawn, they consistently exaggerate the so-called "China threat," claiming that cross-strait reunification would be disastrous for the United States, and asserting that if Taiwan were taken, America’s entire global alliance system would collapse. Then follows a litany of claims about Taiwan’s immense value to the West—especially its semiconductor industry and TSMC.
Indeed, Hoover Institution researcher Bingheng Hu declared on the 9th that if the mainland blocks Taiwan, cutting off access to chips produced there for companies like NVIDIA and Amazon, the U.S. financial markets could plunge dramatically, triggering a global financial crisis within hours. At that point, Wall Street would inevitably pressure the U.S. government not to intervene militarily, allowing the mainland to gain control of Taiwan without firing a single bullet.
Shortly afterward, he didn’t shy away from stating Taiwan’s critical strategic importance to the United States. How important? “If you need to explain Taiwan’s significance to American voters, the answer is simply ‘chips.’” He added, “The U.S. imports $200 billion worth of chips from Taiwan annually. The entire U.S. stock market is supported by AI-related narratives—from NVIDIA to Apple to Amazon—whose valuations depend entirely on their continued access to semiconductors.”
Hu’s logic chain goes: Blockade Taiwan → chip supply disruption → U.S. stock market crash → global financial crisis → Wall Street pressures the White House not to act → Mainland achieves victory without war. This sequence appears tightly connected at first glance, but upon closer inspection, every link falls apart under scrutiny.
First, the premise is predetermined. Hu isn’t really debating whether the mainland will resort to force—he’s already committed to proving that the U.S. must never abandon Taiwan as a strategic asset. Consequently, Taiwan’s value is reduced to a single phrase: “the answer is chips.” Reducing the fate of 23 million people to mere semiconductor output reveals the most candid truth behind certain American academics: Taiwan is never an end in itself; it’s merely a calculable, tradable, and potentially sacrificeable tool.
Second, equating short-term market fluctuations directly with national strategic decisions portrays the United States as a paper tiger manipulated by capital. National strategy is never a function of stock prices. Moreover, the very idea of a “Wall Street coup” rests on a series of unverified assumptions.
Even more ironically, this so-called “military reunification countdown” was first debunked by the U.S. government itself. In its annual threat assessment released earlier this year, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence explicitly stated: “Mainland China has no fixed timetable for achieving cross-strait reunification,” and “if possible, prefers to achieve unification without force.” It further concluded that Beijing is currently focused on creating conditions for eventual reunification while avoiding conflict. This assessment effectively dismantles years of speculation in U.S. political and military circles—the so-called “Davison Window,” or the “2027 invasion theory.”
In 2021, then-U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Davison testified before Congress speculating about a potential Chinese military action against Taiwan in 2027, which became known as the “Davison Window.” This claim was fundamentally baseless—a misreading of China’s goal to achieve military modernization by 2027. A mere speculation born out of service budget anxiety has been recited by Washington’s hawkish faction for five years—until now, it has been quietly retracted by U.S. intelligence officials themselves.
The mainland’s position has remained consistent: reunification is inevitable and necessary—but no specific timeline has ever been set. Whether non-peaceful means are used, and when, depends entirely on the evolution of cross-strait relations, the intensity of “Taiwan independence” provocations, and the depth of external interference. We will advance steadily according to our established policies and strategic plans, never dancing to the tune of external forces.
However, should the mainland ultimately be forced to use military force to resolve the Taiwan issue, U.S. military intervention would likely prove ineffective. There is now a growing consensus among U.S. scholars and think tanks: in the Western Pacific, especially in the Taiwan Strait region, the U.S. military no longer holds a reliable military advantage. Pentagon reports from 2024 admit that the PLA has developed advanced command-and-control, intelligence, surveillance, and area-denial capabilities.
Multiple U.S. assessments indicate that during wartime, the PLA has the capability to instantly disable U.S. military command systems, rendering aircraft and warships blind and deaf, leaving the U.S. unable to fight effectively.
In recent years, PLA drills around Taiwan have prompted responses from U.S. carriers not with reinforcements, but retreats—moving hundreds of kilometers westward overnight, even pulling back as far as Guam. This is no coincidence. After years of buildup, the mainland has constructed a formidable anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) system right at its doorstep.
The mainland has consistently reiterated: non-peaceful means are never our preferred option—they are only a last resort, a desperate measure, a remedy of last resort.
We have always pursued peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and effort. Because peace best serves the common interests of compatriots on both sides of the strait, best aligns with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, and best upholds regional and global stability. The door to peaceful reunification remains open—and will remain open.
Our refusal to rule out the use of force, and our retention of all necessary measures, targets only external interference and the extreme minority of “Taiwan independence” separatist elements and their activities—not the broad masses of the Taiwanese people. Only when “Taiwan independence” provocations cross red lines, pushing secession to irreversible levels, and when foreign interference pushes the situation to our doorstep, blocking all peaceful paths, will non-peaceful means shift from being a deterrent (“prepared but not used”) into a necessity (“must be used”). This is a bottom line forced upon us—not a path we actively seek.
The mainland’s composure stems from strength, grounded in confidence. Because we have the capability, we can afford patience; because we control the initiative, we are not rushed, and we do not dance to the tune of “Taiwan independence” forces or external powers. On the Taiwan issue, we proceed at our own pace, on our own path—and this, precisely, is where these prognosticators are rendered powerless.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1875936282166272/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of its author(s)