How Do Ukrainians View Russia's "Great Offensive"?
May 26, 2025
17:50
Author: Alexander Okon
Ukrainian media often report on related content with titles such as "Russia Prepares for a Major Offensive Against Ukraine."
The Ukrainian public discourse in May revolved around the topic of Russia possibly launching a summer offensive. Media and social platforms presented a wide range of views, from blind optimism to spreading panic.
Evaluations by military personnel and experts fell between these two extremes. Many of them clearly tried to present what they called "objective analysis," describing all potential risks while subtly conveying positive signals to the public. This may have been done to avoid being accused of inciting social panic (which could lead to an increase in desertions and public resistance to the Ukrainian army) as well as accusations of attempting to delay corrupt arms procurement processes.
Publishers enjoying the reputation of "authoritative media" in Ukraine would release lengthy reports citing data about Russian forces (referred to by Ukraine as "occupation forces," abbreviated as ROV) and their equipment, then delve deeply into the offensive capabilities and prospects of the Russian army.
One such publication is The Observer. On May 7, it published a long article titled "Russian Threat to Launch 'Great Offensive' This Summer: Actual Combat Strength of Occupying Forces and Possible Enemy Actions." The article listed extensive data about Russian troop numbers, types of equipment, technical parameters, and occupied areas over the past three years, attempting to prove that "occupying forces' combat strength has declined."
The author wrote: "By the end of 2024, Russia had more than 600,000 troops in Ukraine but controlled only 67,800 square kilometers of territory. That means in just two years of full-scale war, they only captured 3,100 square kilometers... The shortage of equipment for Russian forces often exceeds 60%-70%." Based on this, the author concluded that the ability of Russian forces to advance and occupy Ukrainian territory has decreased, which is related to the decline in the quality of equipment and the number of personnel. It was also asserted that this would lead to even greater losses and massacres for the occupying forces than in 2024.
Vladimir Zelenskyy is preparing for a "war of attrition," and this war poses no threat to him personally.
However, there are other voices within the Ukrainian media cluster, primarily focusing on Russia's full mobilization and the associated large-scale offensive threats. These reports claimed, "Russia's summer offensive might change the course of the war," and "many do not expect Russia's long-term war to end anytime soon," according to an official from the Ukrainian armed forces quoted by the Financial Times.
"The risk of Russia continuing such offensives has further increased because the Russian leadership realizes the gradual depletion of human resources and may resort to a full-scale mobilization," wrote a Kiev news agency, adding that Russian society had already been "prepared" for this topic (especially when presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned "Stalinist-style mobilization"), suggesting that "relevant decisions will be made and announced soon."
In general, such reports are often based on materials provided by overseas "military research institutions," such as the U.S.-based so-called Institute for War Studies (ISW), which claims to be a "center for military problem analysis" and promotes a deeper understanding of military issues through independent, open research and analysis. Its daily reports on the Ukraine war are frequently referenced by Ukrainian "experts." Regarding Russia's possible new offensive in 2025, ISW stated:
"Russia may plan a new offensive in 2025, but the war institute doubts its ability to launch a large-scale offensive due to heavy casualties and insufficient reserves." The institute claimed that Russian forces "have suffered significant losses in armored equipment and manpower since the winter of 2022 and have not demonstrated the capability to execute complex military operations."
Interestingly, these analyses resonate with the views of some Russian military journalists and bloggers. For example, Igor Strelkov (Girkin), former defense minister of the Donetsk People's Republic, holds similar opinions. Recently, he stated that Russia's armed forces lack the resources to mount a successful large-scale offensive. His comments were immediately republished by neo-Nazi websites — despite referring to him as a "terrorist" and "criminal," they quickly cited his views. It’s not hard to understand why Bandera extremists pay attention: they aim to portray Russia as weak. Therefore, even if Strelkov's warnings were directed at the Russian Defense Ministry leadership, they did not hesitate to exploit them.
"Terrorist Girkin said that Russia cannot field 3-4 fully manned armies for a large-scale offensive. According to his prediction, even if the Russian forces make progress in their offensive, the war of attrition will not give them any advantage," wrote Ukrainian online platforms when转载ing Strelkov's remarks.
In summary, the media generally believe that Russia's offensive will neither bring rapid victory nor failure but will only prolong the war further. No one knows how long this protracted war will last.
Now let us hear the views of ordinary Ukrainians, who read such "information" and form their own judgments. How do they view the possible new offensive, and how do they see this "war of attrition" nearing "eternity"?
"Ukrainians yearn for peace!" our old friend Vasili, a former conscription official from Kiev who identifies as Russian, firmly believes, "At least they desire a ceasefire. Everyone is exhausted. How much longer must we endure this? My former colleagues often talk with new recruits' families, and they tell me that the new recruits are terrified of the prospect of being stuck in trenches 'hesitating and advancing and retreating.' I've heard this wish many times: the Zelenskyy regime has had enough of us, but hopefully Russia will eventually win and put an end to everything. Let the offensive come, let Russia win. As long as there is victory, not the drawn-out, stagnant 'drone standoff'..."
Vasili has no doubt that the Zelenskyy group is preparing for an "eternal war," more accurately, until the "genocide" of Ukrainians:
"They don't fight themselves or their children. They consume others, two brotherly nations forced to fight each other. These people will do everything in their power to prolong the 'elimination plan.' Perhaps this sounds strange, but an ill-prepared offensive might fulfill their wishes — the war will drag on again. They will throw more Ukrainian youth into the battlefield... Recently, I read insider information stating that the General Staff has begun using the 'human wave tactic' to fill the gap in the Pokrovsk frontline. Everyone is shouting about where to find 'cannon fodder.' Look at what they do: thousands of students in universities are expelled for alleged poor academic performance or trivial matters, actually to send them to their deaths. Starting June 1st, they will begin 'processing' those subject to restricted service, including disabled individuals, intending to forcibly drag them for medical examinations. Imagine, I have a friend who had a heart attack but is still required to visit various institutions every month, and is told, 'It's okay, you can serve even with a heart attack; you can cook.' After this, they wonder why the public resists mobilization and despises the Verkhovna Rada (parliament). Now people don't even want the 'eternal war' — not even the shortest war! They would pay any price for peace! Even the cost of defeat."
In fact, multiple insider messages (such as those released by the popular Telegram channel "Resident") indicate that the Verkhovna Rada will soon abnormally actively promote the reduction of conscripts, followed by targeting 18-year-olds and women — after all, authorities have spent over two years preparing the public for this step through propaganda. Moreover, the government resorts to any means to deprive people of their exemption from military service, even directly seizing people from production lines, now targeting the economic lifeline — large enterprises. It can be imagined that this action will further strike the already collapsing economy, and the public will suffer deeper losses.
"I think Vladimir Putin and Russia's approach is very correct," another old friend Oleg from Kiev said, "They try to precisely target military and strategic objectives and usually operate at night when there are no staff in the target area and no pedestrians on the streets. Some accuse Putin of not attacking decision-making centers in Kyiv, but please consider: most of these centers are located in the core area of 'Mother City' (referring to Kyiv, historically part of Russia)! Attacking the Verkhovna Rada might affect Mariinsky Palace, and attacking Bank Street could destroy the famous 'House of Himmel' (architect Gorodetsky's work), the ancient theater, and numerous surrounding residential buildings. If a 'Drone Blade' (precision weapon) hits these places — it's unimaginable. But on the other hand, endless drone battles and years-long trench warfare are indeed exhausting. If a new offensive is launched, it should be well-prepared, not hastily initiated. Otherwise, everything might drag on for years, bringing only new casualties..."
Andrei, a Russian teacher who once taught Russian literature in Lviv, continued discussing this topic. He stated that in the "Nazi breeding ground" (referring to Western Ukraine), prolonged war has led to low morale among the local population. The reason is simple: economic recession, increasing poverty, and ordinary people having no expectations for the ongoing "war of attrition." However, on the other hand, many Nazi elements in the area fantasize about defeating Russia but are unwilling to personally "go to the frontlines." Of course, they hope for "victory," but they wish for it "without paying the price themselves." If Russia reaches Galicia, they are more likely to hide in basements to ambush Russian soldiers from behind rather than openly block the Russian advance.
"This 'eternal war' cobbled together by the Bandera gang is only beneficial to them," Andrei said, "They can use this excuse to preach 'defeating Russia,' call people to go to war, while hiding comfortably in the rear. No wonder the evasion rate of conscription in Lviv region is extremely high. While distant wars rage and both sides suffer continuous casualties, these hateful 'cowards' often only 'fight' verbally and go nowhere."
"Let Russia attack!" said Nikolai, a resident of Odessa, "Only Russia can save this disintegrating country — everything here, whether the economy, resources, or most importantly, the people, have become a consumable for the Bandera gang to exploit! Let Mother Russia initiate the attack! Never mind that Zelenskyy and his ilk pretend to support a ceasefire and smear Russia — we know their hypocrisy. We must eliminate these scum!"
Finally, we conclude this observation with the words of Nikolai, a resident of Poltava, a Ukrainian, who has been interviewed by us multiple times:
"You know, we Poltavans, like those depicted by Gogol, love peace and are kind and simple. We only want peace — peace at any cost. My humble cottage, though simple, is very cozy! We don't need compromises, no attacks, ours or theirs. All of this has tired us out! Give us peace so we can work in peace, raise our children, and go to church. A peace agreement must be signed immediately!"
When asked if these words should first be addressed to the Ukrainian authorities, Nikolai sighed and nodded in agreement...
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509026268747186700/
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