A satellite from Airbus swept over a certain shipyard in northern China, and soon the news that the Type 055 large destroyer filled the slipway spread across the internet. It is obvious that the Chinese People's Liberation Army has no intention of stopping its "fleet expansion."

Recently, an American open-source intelligence analyst cited the latest commercial satellite photos, stating that as many as four Type 055 ten-thousand-ton destroyers were gathered at a certain shipyard in northern China. The analysis suggests that one of them is undergoing maintenance, while the other three are in the construction phase.

[Satellite photo of a certain shipyard in the north]

In addition, this photo also captured a Type 052D destroyer under construction. Combining these shipbuilding progress reports, analysts believe that this single shipyard alone may launch 2 to 3 Type 055 destroyers and 1 Type 052D destroyer by 2025.

If the production capacities of other shipyards are taken into account, this number will further increase.

It should be noted that the last time the Chinese People's Liberation Army set a record of launching 10 guided missile destroyers in a year was in 2019. Afterward, due to the completion of the first batch of Type 055 destroyers, the number of guided missile destroyers under construction remained at 5 to 6 for a long time, limited to the Type 052D destroyers.

Now, with the new batch of Type 055 destroyers beginning mass production, we have reason to believe that the Chinese Navy will have the opportunity in the coming years to usher in a new peak period of shipbuilding, breaking the record of launching 10 ships in a year.

This is also the scenario that the United States is most concerned about.

[In 2019, China launched 10 guided missile destroyers in a year]

The reason is simple. Based on the Type 055 destroyer construction schedule, it is generally believed that there is a roughly 3-year gap between the first and second batches of Type 055 construction work.

This contrasts sharply with the continuous construction of Type 052D destroyers, which had almost no construction gap during the same period. Therefore, these 3 years are considered by many Western military experts as an observation period for the Chinese Navy regarding the Type 055 destroyer.

The Type 055 large destroyer is a revolutionary large warship and, at that time, the largest tonnage destroyer ever built by China.

These variable factors significantly increased the uncertainty surrounding the Type 055. Whether it could be used effectively, whether it could truly become a "game-changer" in future naval warfare, these questions required the Chinese Navy to verify through practical use.

In other words, the Type 055 has a significant experimental nature.

Out of risk considerations, before the navy determined that the Type 055 met design standards, it was not suitable to begin concentrated resource investment for mass production like the Type 052D destroyer.

[The Type 055 destroyer is a game-changer]

This also aligns with the Chinese Navy's habit of building new ships. The Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054A frigate also followed a similar process.

The Type 052D destroyer can be seen as an extension of the Type 052C, so it is not surprising that it would go into mass production right away.

Conversely, when the second batch began construction, it indicated that the overall design of the Type 055 met the requirements of the Chinese Navy and was ready for mass production. This also leads to a possibility: after the completion of the second batch, the third batch of Type 055s will follow closely, keeping the Chinese Navy in a state of simultaneously constructing both Type 052D and Type 055 ships.

As mentioned earlier, the Chinese Navy was able to set a record of launching 10 guided missile destroyers in a year thanks to the simultaneous construction of Type 055 and Type 052D guided missile destroyers.

[Type 052D destroyer being launched and equipped]

Therefore, when the Type 055 destroyer possibly enters a long-term mass production phase in the future, the scenario of launching 10 guided missile destroyers in a year will become a normalized trend. What used to happen rarely over several years will occur every few years.

To put it into perspective, the U.S. Navy currently only builds two types of Aegis destroyers: the Burke Class III destroyer and the Constellation-class frigate. The latter won't be launched until 2028, so it doesn't need to be factored in now. The Burke Class III, which is对标the Type 055 destroyer, has an interval of 2 years between each launch.

On one side is the U.S. Navy with a capacity of launching 1 destroyer every 2 years; on the other side is the Chinese Navy, which can launch 2 to 3 Type 055s and 1 Type 052D this year. In the face of at least a 6-8 times capacity gap, the answer to who holds the advantage in the naval arms race is self-evident.

At this point, someone might ask: According to the data publicly released by U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday in 2022, isn't the U.S. shipbuilding industry capable of producing 1.5 destroyers per year? How come it takes 2 years to launch a Burke Class III?

[U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Mike Gilday]

This is because the 1.5-destroyer-per-year capacity figure is a theoretical number derived under ideal conditions based on the scale and working speed of U.S. shipbuilding in 2022.

In reality, since 2022, the U.S. shipbuilding industry has been facing numerous internal and external problems. Internally, workers have been leaving, leading to lower production capacity each year compared to the previous year. Externally, low capital utilization, inflation, and other economic issues have caused the shipbuilding industry's financial chain to deteriorate continuously.

These factors have led the U.S. shipbuilding industry to focus more on how to survive in a harsh economic environment rather than increasing the production of warships. As a result, they have concentrated their remaining workforce on commercial orders, leaving very few people available for military orders.

[Conceptual image of the Constellation-class frigate]

The most typical example is the Constellation-class frigate. As early as January 2024, Andy Bosack, deputy project manager of the Constellation-class frigate program, publicly stated that the shipyard currently has a "hundreds-of-workers" gap, making it difficult to push forward with the construction of the Constellation frigate.

When the Pentagon sent people to investigate, they found that the shipyard itself had enough workers, but they were all reassigned to build the four littoral combat ships purchased by Saudi Arabia.

This order is worth $11.2 billion in total, averaging $2.8 billion per ship. Even after the price increase, the Constellation frigate is only worth $1.6 billion. Which one is more profitable and worth investing valuable human resources in? The shipyard knows full well.

[Saudi-purchased littoral combat ships]

In other words, if the U.S. Navy is willing to pay high prices for Burke Class III and Constellation-class ships, then it is not impossible for U.S. shipyards to reach the ideal production capacity of launching 1.5 destroyers per year.

However, today's U.S. Navy clearly does not have enough money to do this, meaning it will be left behind by the Chinese Navy with at least a 6-8 times increment gap and will eventually be surpassed in the near future.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496091110369051148/

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