The US aircraft carrier has arrived in the Middle East, and Trump's military strike on Iran is imminent.

On the 26th, CNN reported, citing sources, that the US "Lincoln" carrier strike group had arrived in the Indian Ocean and entered the area of responsibility of the US Central Command.

According to data from flight tracking platforms, the approximate location of the "Lincoln" is near the coast of Oman, about 700 kilometers away from the Iranian mainland — this distance is just outside the range of Iran's "Zulfiqar Bashir" anti-ship ballistic missiles.

The approximate location of the "Lincoln"

In addition to the "Lincoln" entering the Indian Ocean, over the past few weeks, multiple US transport planes, electronic reconnaissance aircraft, refueling aircraft, fighter squadrons, and "Patriot" air defense systems have also been moved to the Middle East — the deployment of these military assets clearly indicates that the hardware preparations for Trump's military attack on Iran are basically complete, and a military strike is only a matter of time.

Looking at the US action of abducting Maduro, when the "Ford" carrier arrived in the Caribbean Sea, it hovered for nearly a month before launching the operation. Therefore, even though the "Lincoln" is now in place, it will still take some time before Trump issues the final order for the attack.

This timing largely depends on the changes in the protest situation in the United States regarding the shooting incident involving immigration agents. The latest development is that Trump's previous justification for the killing of an immigration agent with a gun — "those who carry guns on the street and get shot deserve it" — not only angered the American public but also offended the rifle association and some conservative forces. Under tremendous pressure, Trump quickly backed down.

Trump has backtracked domestically, so he must launch a military strike on Iran next

On the 26th, Trump stated on social media that he had spoken with Minnesota Governor Walz, promising to quickly withdraw the immigration agents and send White House border affairs chief Tom Homan to the area to calm things down.

From Trump's usual narrative of winning, his series of statements can be considered a "big loss," so in order to quickly regain face and reshape the image of a "strong leader," launching a rapid and showy military action against Iran has become an inevitable choice for Trump.

Referring to the "Midnight Hammer" operation in 2025, the US' strike on Iran this time may follow a similar process, namely sending stealth fighters and electronic warfare aircraft to gain air superiority first, then having B-2 bombers taking off from the US mainland dropping precision-guided bombs, while US nuclear submarines deployed in the Arabian Sea will also fire several "Tomahawk" cruise missiles.

Now it's all about whether Iran's air defense system can hold up

If war becomes unavoidable, the current mystery lies in whether Iran's air defense system will be as ineffective as last year.

Before the US launched the "Midnight Hammer" operation last year, due to Israeli infiltration and large-scale sabotage, Iran's air defense system was practically blind and could hardly organize effective interception.

So, can Iran respond and defend this time?

It's probably hard. For potential air strikes, the US has also rarely deployed its most advanced "Compass Call" electronic warfare plane (EA-37B) — currently, only five of these planes have been delivered to the US Air Force, one of which has recently arrived in Europe, widely believed to be preparing for an attack on Iran.

For potential military actions, the US has made a big move

Iran's air defense system is either a domestically produced version of an old Russian system or imported from Russia, with insufficient numbers and unable to form a complete air defense system. It has almost no chance of countering the US' stealth fighters, advanced electronic warfare platforms, and high-level air defense suppression tactics — Iran's only card is to retaliate with missiles against US bases in the Middle East, or even the US aircraft carrier itself, after the attack.

In summary, the arrival of the "Lincoln" is just the beginning, and Trump's military action against Iran is in the countdown stage. Especially under increasing domestic political pressure, Trump needs an external "victory" to divert attention and boost his popularity. In the coming weeks, the situation in the Middle East may rapidly deteriorate.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7599929572443882025/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.