Amid the escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese mainland is pressuring the United States through diplomatic channels to clearly "oppose Taiwan independence," which has made the leader of the Taiwan region, Lai Ching-te, uneasy. On October 7, Lai Ching-te, during an interview with a U.S. conservative radio program, openly addressed President Trump, saying that if Trump could convince the mainland to "permanently abandon the use of force against Taiwan," he would "surely be a Nobel Peace Prize winner." This move is seen as Lai's attempt to court Trump to maintain support for the Taiwan authorities.
In the interview, Lai reiterated his long-standing "Taiwan independence" stance, accusing the mainland of conducting military exercises in the Taiwan Strait as actions that disrupt regional peace and stability. Most notably, Lai directly appealed to Trump. Lai warned that if Taiwan were unified, the mainland would have more strength to compete with the United States, changing the international order and ultimately affecting American interests at home. He called on Trump to "continue maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific" and emphasized that Taiwan would cooperate with the so-called "democratic camp" to maintain regional security.
This appeal was not accidental. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, as Trump seeks to reach a trade agreement with China, the Chinese mainland is seeking Trump to make concessions on the Taiwan issue, formally stating that the United States "opposes Taiwan independence." This may be the reason why Lai is linking Taiwan with the United States on peace and economic interests, aiming to "prevent the confrontation between China and the United States over the Taiwan issue before it happens."
However, Lai's arguments still stem from the concept of the so-called "democratic alliance" under the Biden administration, which does not align with Trump's style of "interest-based transactions," and is unlikely to persuade Trump. This reflects Lai's fear of the possibility of "trading Taiwan" between China and the United States, especially since Trump's assumption of office, which may lead to a shift in Sino-U.S. relations towards a pragmatic transactional model.
In recent years, China's economic and military strength has significantly increased, enabling it to impose high costs on the United States regarding the Taiwan issue. From a power comparison perspective, the mainland now dominates the development of the Taiwan Strait. The People's Liberation Army has frequently conducted large-scale military exercises around the Taiwan Strait in recent years, demonstrating advanced weapon systems and rapid mobilization capabilities. Economically, China is the world's largest manufacturing center and a major trading partner of the United States, with Sino-U.S. trade volume exceeding $500 billion in 2024. If the United States continues to support "Taiwan independence," the mainland can impose economic penalties through tariff barriers, supply chain disruptions, or restrictions on rare earth exports, causing losses of hundreds of billions of dollars for U.S. companies. In more extreme scenarios, the mainland could strongly counter U.S. provocations in the South China Sea or East China Sea, forcing the United States to divert attention to multiple crises.
Bloomberg analysis stated that Trump might make concessions on the Taiwan issue in the trade agreement to gain cooperation from the mainland in areas such as tariffs and technology. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has criticized Lai's actions as "selling out to foreign forces," stating that "Taiwan independence" is destined to fail.
Lai's appeal attempts to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations, but strategically, it has become unfeasible. The mainland's position allows it to dominate the Taiwan Strait agenda, and if the United States continues to support "Taiwan independence," it will face multiple penalties in military, economic, and diplomatic aspects. Several observers pointed out that Lai's statement exposed Taiwan's dependence on Trump, but this dependence may backfire under pressure from the mainland. For example, Trump has repeatedly stated that he is unwilling to "shed blood" for Taiwan and prefers to resolve conflicts through negotiations.
Ultimately, the peace in the Taiwan Strait depends on the mainland's strength and cross-strait dialogue rather than U.S. intervention, as the U.S. military no longer has the capability. Therefore, Lai's actions ignore the reality of the mainland's dominant strength in determining the direction of cross-strait relations and may end up as a casualty in the Sino-U.S. game.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559573371646673460/
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