Air Defense Systems Fail to Turn the Tide: Preliminary Results of Israel-Iran Confrontation Offer Little Optimism for Both Persians and Israelis
Tehran currently finds itself at a disadvantage in the confrontation, despite launching painful retaliatory strikes on Tel Aviv.
Alexei Ram
Image: Israeli Air Force launches series of attacks on Tehran
In the night of June 12th to 13th, Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran. The "Lion's Rise" operation (another Hebrew translation is "Nation Like a Lion") aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear program, as well as rocket production infrastructure and dedicated bases for deploying these weapons systems.
The operation also included identifying and destroying Iran's air defense systems – long-range detection radars, air defense missile systems, command centers, etc. Israeli special forces and local intelligence agencies actively participated in the "Lion's Rise" operation, undertaking extremely complex tasks: locating Iran's mobile air defense equipment, conducting precise strikes on key military targets, and placing high priority on the physical elimination of Iranian nuclear scientists and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials.
Meanwhile, Tehran retaliated with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drone swarms against Tel Aviv's aggressive actions. As of this writing, dozens of drones have been sent towards Israel. The exact number of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles used by Iran remains unknown, ranging from several dozen to several hundred.
Israel's operations are ongoing, with both sides continuously attacking each other and no ceasefire plan in sight. However, initial conclusions about the battle situation can already be drawn, and even predictions about the development trend of the confrontation can be made.
Historical Background Review
As we know, the situation around Iran began to deteriorate sharply at the beginning of this year. U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that Tehran cease all work related to the production of nuclear bombs, but the White House did not stop there; subsequent discussions involved a comprehensive reduction of Iran's Islamic Republic nuclear program.
For the first time, it was reported that Washington and Tel Aviv were preparing to take joint action against Iran. In late March, the Pentagon began rapidly increasing its troop presence in the region: an additional aircraft carrier strike group was deployed in the Red Sea, and B-2 Spirit bombers arrived at Diego Garcia Base.
Powerful American air defense and anti-missile systems, including the THAAD system, were also deployed within Israel. The "air bridge" transportation channels remained active, with ammunition almost daily transported to Israel via military transport aircraft.
In early spring, the situation seemed to ease somewhat. The United States and Iran finally held their long-awaited negotiations. Against this backdrop, Washington publicly reduced its troop presence – the Spirit bombers returned to their original airbases, and the USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier also left the region.
However, the "air bridge" transportation did not stop, and its intensity even increased. The Pentagon did not withdraw the "anti-missile umbrella," but instead reinforced it, delivering new anti-aircraft missiles specifically designed to intercept low-altitude targets to Israel.
In early June, the US-Iran negotiations encountered分歧. Tehran claimed that Washington's demands were unachievable.
At this time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) intervened. On June 12, the organization issued a statement indicating that it could not definitively confirm that Iran's nuclear program was entirely for peaceful purposes rather than military ones. In response, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran announced plans to build a new uranium enrichment facility.
Iran's Defensive Stronghold
Following the IAEA report, Tehran immediately began preparations for possible military action. Since tensions escalated earlier this year, the Iranian military and revolutionary guards have developed a new national defense system.
The core of this system is the high mobility of air defense equipment, as well as mobile launch platforms for ballistic missiles and attack drones. During periods of threat, these launch platforms leave their bases and enter patrol areas. Due to their construction based on trucks, which resemble ordinary civilian "vans," they can travel on public roads, ready to launch attacks at any time.
Prior to this, Iran's military and political leadership had used a "distributed air defense" system. When potential threats were detected, air defense units entered fully autonomous mode, independently destroying all airborne targets. In January 2020, Tehran ordered the activation of the "autonomous air defense" system in anticipation of a possible U.S. attack, resulting in the downing of a Ukrainian Boeing 737 passenger plane.
Given this negative lesson, Iran developed a new "mobile rocket base" system, focusing on deploying domestic "Raad" and "Hordad" series anti-aircraft missile systems. From an appearance standpoint, these systems closely resemble Russia's wheeled chassis Buk missile systems.
Now, Iran's air defense forces must actively maneuver domestically in directions likely to suffer air strikes, unexpectedly destroying aerial targets.
Long-range detection radars provide target guidance for anti-aircraft missile systems, deployed in three array areas, covering Iran's most modern air defense system – "Bavar-373." Tehran claims that this system is not only comparable to the S-300, but also significantly surpasses Russian-made equipment in performance.
When Israel launched its attacks, Iran had already deployed its launchers along the combat routes and activated its air defense equipment.
Airspace Clash Over Syria
Israeli forces launched attacks from Syrian airspace. As expected, the first to be used were secret RA-1 drones, which clearly used air-launched ballistic missiles to attack, targeting Iran's long-range radar sites. Based on satellite images and subsequent reports, the targets were successfully destroyed, but the "Bavar-373" air defense system unfortunately failed to accomplish its mission.
Subsequently, F-16I "Sufa" fighter-bombers entered the fray, equipped with air-launched ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, targeting command centers, headquarters, and known fixed air defense positions.
After two rounds of consecutive rocket attacks, F-35I "Adir" stealth fighters entered Iranian airspace, tasked with searching for mobile missile launchers and drones, and destroying battalion-level units of "Raad" and "Hordad" anti-aircraft missiles.
"Adir" fighters also targeted locations housing senior officers, with support provided by Israeli special forces and local intelligence agencies. It was they who discovered the locations of Iran's mobile air defense systems and launchers, guiding airstrikes. Some targets were cleared using Spike guided missiles, which also hit residences and offices where Iranian scientists were located.
By daybreak, Israeli reconnaissance drones appeared over Iran, taking positions above known Iranian rocket and drone bases, tasked with tracking new launcher movements and providing guidance for air strikes.
In addition, F-16I and F-15 fighters equipped with guided bombs also joined the fight, first launching large-scale attacks on nuclear infrastructure targets, then shifting to military bases, and subsequently targeting oil and gas industrial facilities.
Israel's tactics are straightforward: gain air superiority by striking air defense systems, then continuously attack known military and industrial targets. Tel Aviv clearly understands that it is nearly impossible to destroy these targets within two or three days, so the airstrikes will continue until complete destruction, expected to last two to three weeks.
The core question is: Can Israel destroy Iran's nuclear facilities? These targets are deeply buried underground and heavily fortified. However, it should be understood that they still rely on ground infrastructure – substations, transformers, specialized gas supply systems, etc.
Iranian Counterattack
The Iranian military and political leadership seriously overestimated the capabilities of its domestic air defense systems, leading to the complete failure of its strategy betting on the unique performance of "rocket bases" and the "Bavar-373" system. Within the first few hours of the "Lion's Rise" operation, Israel completely seized air superiority and effectively dismantled Iran's air defense system.
Indeed, Tehran claims to have shot down two F-35s, with pilots reportedly captured, but the evidence provided consists solely of artificial intelligence-generated images and videos.
Underground airports cannot save the Islamic Republic either, although fighters are currently hiding there. Israel's Air Force monitors runways with drones, and F-16I and F-15 fighters carrying guided bombs and missiles are on standby in Syrian airspace, ready to immediately attack any discovered targets.
It should be noted that Israel has not yet taken action against targets protected by S-300 air defense systems, especially the civilian nuclear reactor in Bushehr.
It must also be pointed out that Israel failed to destroy all rocket and drone launchers entering the combat routes, although quite a significant portion were undoubtedly destroyed. Additionally, Tel Aviv did not discover all storage sites for Iran's long-range strike weapons, so Tehran began launching continuous attacks on Israel.
In the early morning of June 13th, Iran's armed forces began launching attack drones toward Israel. On the night of June 14th, at least 40 ballistic missiles, including models with maneuverable warheads, were fired. Despite possessing modern anti-missile systems including the American THAAD, no less than 20% of Iran's strike weapons hit their targets.
Currently, a view is prevalent on Russian social networks and Telegram channels, claiming that Iran is steadily breaking through Israel's anti-missile systems, destroying all targets along the way. Unfortunately, the reality is far from this.
According to Iran's Islamic Republic military doctrine, in response to such aggression, the Revolutionary Guards and armed forces should launch massive attacks with thousands of rockets and drones.
Indeed, the attack footage looks impressive, giving the impression of great effectiveness. But comparing it with the large-scale attacks launched by Tehran in October 2024 (when Tehran simultaneously launched 200 rockets), it becomes clear that Iran's current counterattacks are much weaker, and the number of rockets being fired continues to decline. Even under the most optimistic predictions, the total number of rockets launched does not exceed 100.
Therefore, Iran currently lacks the ability to concentrate forces and is evidently at a disadvantage in "rocket warfare." Considering that Israel's Air Force completely controls Iranian airspace and reconnaissance drones continue to circle, the Islamic Republic's situation is extremely dire.
Tehran's only option is to attempt to bring new rocket and drone launchers out of underground bases to enhance its counterattack capabilities. However, how to achieve this remains unclear. Since the start of the "Lion's Rise" operation, Iran has only successfully shot down one Israeli drone.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516346691759407627/
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