With the afterglow of the Alaska Summit still lingering, the White House has released a major announcement: US President Trump has begun arranging a direct meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.

If realized, this would be the first face-to-face encounter between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia since the full-scale war broke out. However, the problem is that this seemingly "historic" meeting is riddled with traps and contradictions from the very beginning.

Kremlin's Cold Response

Trump made confident statements on social media, but Moscow's response was notably cold. On Monday, Kremlin assistant Yury Ushakov, when briefing journalists on the call between Putin and Trump, confirmed that both sides had indeed discussed the possibility of elevating the level of representatives between Ukraine and Russia.

However, he deliberately avoided the most critical word: Putin and Zelenskyy. He did not mention their names at all, nor did he imply that Russia was ready to take this step.

Later on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov appeared somewhat more relaxed during an interview on state television, but his words remained ambiguous: "We do not reject any form of cooperation—whether bilateral or trilateral. However, any contact involving high-level officials must be prepared with extreme caution."

In the Kremlin's language, this means: they are far from ready.

Putin's Narrative Dilemma

This caution is not surprising. After all, the start of the Ukraine war was precisely when Putin announced in 2022 the recognition of the independence of the "People's Republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk, and launched a full-scale invasion under the pretext of "correcting historical errors."

In Putin's narrative, Ukraine is not an independent country, but an inseparable part of the Russian civilizational space. Therefore, if he were to sit across from Zelenskyy at the same table, it would mean acknowledging Ukraine's sovereignty. This would not only be a self-negation of his long-standing propaganda, but also seen as a defeat by domestic nationalists.

As Orysia Luycenko, Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, pointed out: "Putin would have to accept the reality of failure, because he once claimed that Zelenskyy represented a country that doesn't exist at all."

She further explained: "He portrayed Zelenskyy as a Nazi, a Western puppet, and an illegitimate regime on national television. Suddenly sitting down for dialogue would make it hard to explain to the Russian public."

"The Kyiv Regime" and "Illegitimate President"

For a long time, the official discourse of the Kremlin almost completely avoided using the name "Zelenskyy." Instead, they used the term "the Kyiv regime."

Moscow not only continuously questioned Zelenskyy's legitimacy, but also in its latest "peace memorandum," required Ukraine to hold nationwide elections before signing any final peace agreement—which is almost impossible under the emergency law.

In fact, during the first direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia held in Istanbul last year, Putin didn't even personally select a representative; instead, he sent a scholar who wrote history textbooks to lead the delegation. Such an arrangement was almost an insult.

Europe's Doubts

If Washington is pushing for the meeting, then European capitals generally show skepticism. Germany and France worry that this meeting might become a "Trump diplomatic show," gaining political capital domestically without achieving any substantive progress.

A European diplomat privately told the media: "If Trump actually forces Zelenskyy to make concessions at the negotiation table, while Putin shows no willingness to give way, it would mean Ukraine's position becomes even more vulnerable."

Poland and Baltic countries are even more cautious. They fear that Trump's "deal logic" might use Ukraine's territorial integrity as a bargaining chip, thereby undermining the entire European security architecture.

Russia's Key: Trump

So why would Putin consider this meeting? The answer may not be in Kyiv, but in Washington.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that Putin does not see the meeting with Zelenskyy as crucial for Russia. "This war is essentially a confrontation between Russia and the West, not a war with Ukraine."

But she emphasized that if Putin believes the meeting could bring breakthroughs, he might still participate. "The key demands must be on the table, and Zelenskyy must agree to discuss them."

So far, Zelenskyy has firmly ruled out all "key demands," especially giving up territories that Russian forces have not fully controlled. However, in Moscow's strategic vision, Trump is the key person who could change this situation.

"In Russia's eyes, Trump is a proponent of the solution. He can urge Kyiv to be more flexible, even force Ukraine to accept unwilling conditions," Stanovaya said.

Trump's Bold Claims and Reality

Trump himself seems to be the one most eager to announce a victory. On Monday, he wrote on Truth Social: "I have started arranging a meeting between President Putin and President Zelenskyy."

But just one day later, when he called into a Fox News morning program, his tone softened considerably: "I've sort of arranged a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, you know, they're the ones who should be making the decisions. We're thousands of miles away."

This statement exposed an awkward reality: even the instigator Trump knows that this diplomatic gamble is not a certainty.

Putin's Cards

Given this context, Putin has little incentive to make concessions. After the Alaska Summit, he has already gained considerable rewards: Trump removed the requirement of a ceasefire agreement before negotiations, and the US's "ultimatum" on sanctions against Russia is now virtually meaningless.

At the same time, the Russian military has not stopped pressuring on the battlefield. Although night-time drone attacks on Ukrainian cities decreased since August, Russia recently launched a new escalation with 270 drones and 10 missiles at night on Monday.

For the Kremlin, military and diplomacy are always complementary tools. If Trump cannot force Kyiv to compromise, then continued military pressure remains the best card.

Ukraine's Dilemma

For Zelenskyy, this potential meeting is more like a double-edged sword. On one hand, he must maintain American support to avoid being labeled as a "negotiation disruptor" by Trump; on the other hand, he cannot easily compromise on territorial issues, otherwise he will face significant domestic political backlash.

Surveys in Kyiv show that the majority of Ukrainians oppose giving up territory in any agreement. If Zelenskyy makes concessions at the negotiation table, it would directly threaten his legitimacy. Therefore, the Ukrainian president has very little room for maneuver in this diplomatic game.

The only uncertainty is: once this latest "peace attempt" fails, who will Trump blame? The "Kyiv regime" that refuses to compromise? Or the stubborn Putin? Or the "uncooperative" European allies? The answer may determine the direction of diplomacy in the coming months.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540731753170731554/

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