On Sunday local time (September 14), China and the United States held a new round of economic and trade consultations in Madrid, Spain. Just before the Chinese delegation arrived at the Palacio de San Miguel, a Baroque-style building that houses the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Madrid, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer arrived at the venue first.
However, just before the talks, a "heavy blow" from the U.S. Department of Commerce made the atmosphere of the negotiation suddenly tense.
The U.S. Resumes Old Tactics, Creating Negotiation Leverage Before the Talks
On September 12 local time, the U.S. unexpectedly added 23 Chinese entities to the control list, with enterprises and institutions in key areas such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, biotechnology, and life sciences clearly listed. This move undoubtedly poured salt on the wound of Sino-U.S. economic relations, seriously undermining the friendly atmosphere before the negotiations, and leaving Chinese enterprises facing great uncertainty and losses.
China naturally would not sit idly by. The Ministry of Commerce quickly spoke out, sharply questioning the U.S.: "Since September 14, China and the U.S. will hold economic and trade talks in Spain. What is the intention of the U.S. to impose sanctions on Chinese enterprises at this time?" This was not only an angry question about the U.S. actions, but also a clear statement of China's firm determination to protect its own interests. Following this, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on the evening of September 13 that it would launch an anti-dumping investigation into imported related analog chips from the United States. This counterattack was precise and powerful, fully demonstrating China's confidence and strength in economic and trade games.
The U.S. launching the attack before the talks has complex strategic considerations.
On one hand, the U.S. attempts to exert maximum pressure to gain more benefits at the negotiation table, forcing China to compromise on some key issues;
On the other hand, it reflects the anxiety and unease of the U.S. when facing China's rapid development. With China's continuous breakthroughs in the technology sector, especially in key technologies such as semiconductors, where China is gradually breaking the U.S. monopoly, the U.S. feels an unprecedented threat, thus trying to curb China's development through sanctions and controls.
Review of the Results of the First Three Rounds of Talks
Looking back, the Sino-U.S. economic and trade teams have already held three rounds of high-level dialogues in Geneva, London, and Stockholm.
In Geneva, the joint statement reached by both sides was a key turning point. The U.S. canceled 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, while China responded accordingly. This measure significantly eased the tense situation of bilateral economic and trade friction and laid a good foundation for subsequent negotiations.
Subsequently, in London, both sides further discussed issues related to market access and fair competition, trying to resolve structural problems each party faced in the other's market. Although no specific agreement was reached, mutual understanding was enhanced.
During the Stockholm talks, both sides agreed in principle to extend the trade truce agreement for another 90 days, once again sending a positive signal and consolidating the basic framework of cooperation.
Background and Importance of This Consultation
The background of this Madrid consultation is somewhat complicated. From January to August 2025, the total value of imports and exports nationwide increased by 5.9%, but the Sino-U.S. trade volume dropped sharply by 13%, indicating a clear trend of decoupling between the two economies.
Additionally, as mentioned above, the U.S. Department of Commerce added 23 Chinese entities to the control list just before the talks on September 12, with enterprises and institutions in key fields such as semiconductors and integrated circuits, biotechnology, and life sciences clearly listed, making the negotiation atmosphere even more tense.
Analysis of Key Issues
- Tariff Issues
Tariff issues remain the core and difficulty of this meeting. Since April, the Trump administration's trade policies towards China have made tariffs a key point of contention. If the U.S. revokes unilateral tariffs, it may affect the political authority of Trump and the "America First" policy system; maintaining the tariffs, however, has not improved the trade deficit. In the issue of 20% punitive tariffs on fentanyl-related products, the U.S. is in a dilemma. Moreover, the U.S. is trying to build a tariff encirclement around China, urging the EU to implement 100% punitive tariffs together, and neighboring country Mexico has also hinted that it will impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods. This strategy of forming alliances to exert pressure undoubtedly adds more uncertainties to the negotiations.
- Export Controls
Export controls are another key focus of this consultation. In recent years, the U.S. has transformed export controls into a tool to maintain technological hegemony, restricting exports of integrated circuit-related products and manufacturing equipment to China under the pretext of "national security," and restricting "Americans" from participating in Chinese semiconductor projects. In May 2025, the U.S. even issued news and guidelines, restricting the use of Chinese advanced computing integrated circuits including Huawei's Ascend chips, and restricting the use of American artificial intelligence chips to train Chinese artificial intelligence models. These practices severely damage the stability of the global semiconductor industry supply chain and have become a major obstacle in Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations.
- Supply Chain Cooperation
With global resource supply being tight, supply chain cooperation has become a potential area of interest for both sides. The U.S. is willing to promote a joint procurement mechanism for rare earths with China to ensure its own industrial needs; China hopes to use this opportunity to urge the U.S. to ease anti-subsidy investigations on Chinese new energy vehicles, creating a fair international environment for the development of the industry. If cooperation can be achieved in this field, it will play a positive role in stabilizing and optimizing the global supply chain.
The Unique Aspects of This Meeting
This Madrid meeting is different from previous ones. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce proactively disclosed the details and core topics of the meeting to the public, showing a more proactive attitude in the agenda setting, demonstrating its control over the consultation process and an open attitude toward problem-solving. The choice of Madrid, Spain, as the venue, as a neutral third-party location, avoids the territory of either China or the U.S., reducing the interference caused by the "home and away" psychological differences, creating a calm and rational communication atmosphere for both sides.
Prediction of the Impact of the Consultation Results
From a positive perspective, if this meeting achieves progress, both sides will benefit. U.S. consumers and businesses are expected to reduce the burden of tariffs. Research by the Congressional Budget Office shows that the additional tariffs imposed on China have increased the annual burden on each American family by over $1,200. Chinese enterprises will gain a more fair international operating environment, clearing obstacles for their overseas development. Breakthroughs in cooperation in areas such as rare earths and new energy could also create new growth points, providing momentum for global industrial upgrading.
Conversely, if the talks hit a deadlock, the risk of economic decoupling between China and the U.S. may further intensify. The Sino-U.S. trade volume fell sharply by 13% year-on-year in January to August 2025, and if this continues, it will impact the relevant industries of both countries. U.S. farmers and tech companies will continue to suffer losses, and the global supply chain will face further disruption, leading to greater instability in the international economic and trade order.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550068351339381291/
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