【Wen/Observer Net Zhang Jingjuan】As violent acts by "rioters" and armed personnel across Iran have resulted in hundreds of Iranian people and security personnel deaths, the U.S. government's intervention hand is accelerating towards Iran.
According to reports from The New York Times, Al Jazeera, and other media outlets, on January 11 local time, U.S. President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Iran was "starting to touch America's red lines," and the U.S. is considering a series of measures to deal with the situation in Iran, including military actions as "a range of very strong options," with specific decisions to be announced at an appropriate time.
Regarding this, Professor Liu Zhongmin from the Middle East Institute at Shanghai Foreign Studies University told Observer Net that it is not ruled out that the U.S. might strike Iran in a specific way, but the possibility of a large-scale war is extremely low. He pointed out that the Trump administration has two main concerns: one is the careful handling of the scale of action, and the other is the dilemma in choosing the method of action.
U.S. officials reveal: the plan covers multiple means including military, cyber, and economic
According to reports, Trump said on his plane that he received a report on the latest situation in Iran every hour, and also issued a warning that any attack targeting American interests would trigger a counterattack from the U.S.
He also revealed that after the U.S. issued a threat of military strike, the Iranian leadership had proactively called to seek "negotiation talks," and related "meeting arrangements are being advanced." However, he also emphasized, "before the meeting takes place, we may have to take action."
On the same day, The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials saying that Trump plans to hear a briefing on the response plan to the Iranian protests on Tuesday (the 13th), covering multiple means including military, cyber, and economic. The report stated that this move indicates that Trump is considering fulfilling his repeated threats to punish the Iranian government under the pretext of suppressing demonstrations.
U.S. officials revealed that Trump planned to discuss the next steps with senior government officials on the same day, which could include planting anti-government sources online, deploying secret cyber weapons on Iranian military and civilian facilities, increasing sanctions, and carrying out military strikes.
Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hagel, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kelly will attend the meeting.
Before the meeting, relevant memorandums were sent to various agencies to solicit their opinions on specific response measures, including potential military targets and economic options.
One option currently under discussion is the possibility of delivering "Starlink" terminals to Iran during Trump's term for the first time. "Starlink" is a satellite internet service under Elon Musk. The U.S. intends to use this technology to help protesters bypass Iran's recent internet blockades.
American cable news network CNN noted that this idea is not new; during the 2022 Iranian protest, the previous Biden administration also provided similar network assistance.
Currently, multiple government agencies are involved in preparing the response plan, and more formal briefings are expected to be held in the coming week.
However, since the discussions are still in the preliminary stage, it is expected that Trump will not make a final decision at the meeting on Tuesday. A senior White House official told CNN that all the options currently before Trump do not involve sending ground troops to Iran.
On January 11, 2026, U.S. President Trump spoke with the media on Air Force One while flying from Florida to Washington. IC photo
Divisions within the U.S., strong response from Iran
The internal divisions within the U.S. regarding intervention in Iran have become evident. Some officials expressed concern that if the U.S. or Israel took action under the guise of supporting protesters, it might bolster Iran's propaganda, claiming that the nationwide resistance was orchestrated by hostile external forces.
Others worry that any U.S. response might escalate tensions in the region, possibly leading to direct confrontation between the U.S., Iran, and potentially Israel.
CNN also noted that there are concerns within the U.S. that military strikes could have the opposite effect, either uniting the Iranian people against external threats to support the current government or triggering Iranian military retaliation, ultimately weakening the momentum of the protests.
Moreover, the U.S. has realized that if only more harmful but not weakening symbolic actions are taken, it might demoralize those who believe the U.S. will support them.
According to two informed sources, Rubio spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the 10th, discussing the ongoing protests in Iran. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said on Sunday that they are closely monitoring developments as the anti-government protests enter their third week.
The IDF spokesperson stated in a statement that "the protests are an internal matter in Iran," but also said that "the Israeli Defense Forces are prepared for defense, continuously enhancing combat capabilities and readiness."
Since the protests began over two weeks ago due to economic issues and escalated into a nationwide upheaval on January 8, Trump's hard-line rhetoric has continued to escalate.
On January 2, he claimed on social media that the U.S. had "bullets in the chamber," warning the Iranian regime not to harm peaceful protesters. On the 9th, Trump further warned that if the Iranian government opened fire on demonstrators, the U.S. would "shoot back." On the 10th, he even boasted, "Iran is about to experience an unprecedented 'light of freedom,' and the U.S. is ready to extend a helping hand," linking related anti-government news and openly supporting Iran's opposition forces.
The U.S. Department of State also joined in the effort on the social platform "X," stating, "Don't play games with President Trump, he means what he says," implying past U.S. actions against Venezuelan President Maduro, trying to use past "achievements" to deter Iran.
Data from the International Armed Conflict Location and Events Database project shows that since taking office on January 20, 2025, the Trump administration has carried out at least 626 air strikes, far exceeding the 555 of the previous four-year term of Biden, involving countries such as Somalia, Yemen, Syria, and Venezuela.
It is worth noting that in August last year, U.S. forces had already deployed B-2 stealth bombers to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities. If this meeting finally decides on a new round of military strikes, it would be the second time that Trump has authorized military action against Iran during his term.
Officials say that after the Maduro incident and believing that they have maintained U.S. interests through bombing campaigns in Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen, Trump is more confident.
However, from actual military deployment, the U.S. still faces significant shortcomings. The Pentagon has not mobilized any troops for potential military strikes, and the U.S. recently moved the "Gerald R. Ford" aircraft carrier and its strike group from the Mediterranean to Latin America, resulting in no U.S. aircraft carriers currently deployed in the Middle East or Europe.
"Gerald R. Ford" aircraft carrier IC photo
Facing the U.S.'s escalating pressure, Iran has also made a strong response. On the 11th, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, told the parliament that Iran had warned Trump, and if the U.S. launched any attacks, Iran would consider U.S. and Israeli military bases in the region as "legitimate targets" for retaliation.
He added, "We will not limit our response to when the other side takes action first."
On the same day, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also made a statement. He reiterated his commitment to reforming Iran's struggling economy and distributing $7 cash to each Iranian citizen. While expressing the government's willingness to listen to the people's voices, he clearly accused the U.S. and Israel of inciting "rioters" to create instability in Iran, urging the public to stay away from "troublemakers and terrorists."
Scholar: Trump's recent statements on Iran combine cognitive warfare and deterrence
Professor Liu Zhongmin from the Middle East Institute at Shanghai Foreign Studies University told Observer Net that in recent days, the wave of mass protests in Iran has undergone significant changes, becoming increasingly complex, containing both rational expressions of ordinary citizens for improved livelihoods and elements influenced by external forces such as the U.S. and Israel. Some groups have launched attacks on Iran's administrative and military security institutions, leading to escalating violent conflicts, and in recent times, the situation has gradually evolved into a riot. In the early stages of the protests and before the situation deteriorated, the Iranian government adopted a rational, moderate attitude of dialogue, but with the complexity of the protests and the escalation of violent conflicts, the government adjusted its response methods, implementing internet shutdowns. Internet shutdowns temporarily reduced the scale of the protests, but this approach is merely an emergency measure and has serious negative impacts on the overall operation of the country.
He pointed out that Trump's recent statements on Iran combine cognitive warfare and deterrence. On one hand, by highlighting topics like "Iran's suppression of the people," he creates panic and pressures Iran; on the other hand, it is not ruled out that the U.S. might strike Iran in a specific way, but the possibility of a large-scale war is extremely low, essentially a strategic choice to avoid long-term wars. The U.S. will not adopt the ground force involvement model of the Afghanistan War or the Iraq War, and Trump prefers remote strikes, decapitation operations, and air raids as "quick strikes and quick withdrawals, fast in and fast out" methods, consistent with the guidance of the new national security strategy of "avoiding long-term military presence and preventing entanglement in regional prolonged conflicts," and continuing the approach used in the Venezuela operation.
Regarding Trump's so-called "red lines," Liu Zhongmin said, "Trump often speaks vaguely, and his so-called 'red lines' probably have no specific target." He listed three possible points: one is Iran's nuclear development activities; Israel has continuously emphasized that Iran's uranium enrichment activities have exceeded the limits of the nuclear agreement, and if Trump is convinced that Iran's nuclear activities are approaching the production of nuclear weapons, it may trigger action; two is the scale of casualties in the protest waves, and the expansion of casualties caused by the conflict between the Iranian government and the people could become an excuse; three is the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and if Iran closes the strait affecting shipping in the Persian Gulf, it will touch on a sensitive point for the U.S.
He said that currently, the Trump administration has two main concerns: one is the careful handling of the scale of action, ensuring "quick strikes and quick withdrawals," avoiding long-term conflicts; the other is the dilemma in choosing the method of action. Copying the bombing model of the "Twelve-Day War" between Iran and Israel in June 2025 might provoke Iranian nationalistic sentiments, making the protest crowds turn against the U.S. and Israel, which is inappropriate; copying the "decapitation" tactics used in Venezuela, constrained by Iran's geographical conditions (being inland) and historical failed experiences (the failed U.S. hostage rescue in 1979), it is difficult to implement.
Regarding Iran, Liu Zhongmin believes that the country is facing economic and livelihood challenges, compounded by climate and water resource crises, and short-term measures for anti-corruption and improving people's livelihoods are unlikely to yield results. Externally, it is subject to sanctions and blockades, and oil cannot be converted into cash, forming a situation where external bottlenecks and internal difficulties are intertwined.
In his view, Iran should prioritize controlling the situation in the short term, avoiding absolute opposition with the people's protests, preventing large-scale repression and casualties, and need to engage in dialogue with protest representatives to achieve ultimate stability while maintaining control of the situation.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7594386665607561774/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.