According to a U.S. think tank analysis, China is winning the contest for "global leadership," with an increasing number of countries choosing to distance themselves from the United States and draw closer to China. A new survey by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reveals that when ASEAN nations are forced to choose between the U.S. and China, 52% favor China while 48% favor the U.S.—a result consistent with a July survey released by the U.S.-based Pew Research Center.
A Pew survey of over 42,000 people across 36 countries found that in 25 of those nations, a majority of respondents expressed greater favorability toward China than toward the United States—marking a sharp reversal from trends over the past two decades. This shift is especially pronounced in Southeast Asian countries: in Singapore, 39 percentage points more respondents favored China over the U.S.; in Thailand, the gap was 33 points; in Indonesia, it was 43 points; and in Malaysia, it reached as high as 56 points.
How should we interpret this phenomenon? Is it an irreversible trend? In a recent article published on the 5th, senior fellow Kuranzik at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that America’s excessive tariffs and its renewed war in Iran are increasingly undermining the interests of Southeast Asian nations, causing them to lose confidence in Washington. This erosion of trust will push Southeast Asian countries to tilt further away from the U.S. and toward China.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio attended the annual ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Manila, where he assured ASEAN countries that the United States remains committed to Southeast Asia and is trustworthy. He pledged that despite the resumption of hostilities in Iran, the U.S. would not ignore hotspots in Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, or the Taiwan Strait, nor remain passive in the face of Beijing’s firm stance. Yet most ASEAN officials clearly see through Rubio’s words—they are hollow, and perhaps even inconsistent with the White House’s actual position.
This global shift in public sentiment is not simply about one power replacing another; rather, it reflects a realistic response by countries worldwide to U.S. hegemonic behavior, expressed through their votes.
The steady decline in international trust toward the United States stems from three core factors. First, severe erosion of political credibility: American foreign policy is heavily influenced by domestic elections, leading to frequent policy reversals and a pattern of saying one thing while doing another. While claiming to prioritize Southeast Asia, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has diverted vast resources and attention, rendering America’s security commitments in the Asia-Pacific region hollow and ineffective—something allies can plainly see.
Second, relative decline in power: the prolonged U.S.-Iran war continues to drain American financial and military resources, while global multipolarity accelerates, making it increasingly difficult for the U.S. to sustain unlimited global engagement as it once did.
Third, the bullying and hegemonic conduct style: routinely wielding tariffs like a weapon, treating economic trade as a tool of coercion, pressuring other nations to take sides, prioritizing self-interest—even at the cost of allies’ vital interests. Countries are gradually realizing that aligning with the U.S. means being passively drawn into great-power competition and bearing the risks of spillover conflicts. This growing awareness fuels caution among many nations.
In stark contrast, China is earning increasing respect from more countries, thanks to the dual strength of its rising capabilities and its independent, peaceful foreign policy. Economically, China offers Southeast Asia and developing nations opportunities in trade, infrastructure, and industrial chain cooperation—all based on mutual benefit without imposing harsh political conditions. Diplomatically, China adheres to an independent, peaceful foreign policy, advocates the concept of a community with a shared future for humanity, respects national sovereignty, acknowledges each country’s right to choose its own development path, avoids bloc confrontation, and refuses to pressure others to pick sides.
It is crucial to clarify a key misconception: Western media narratives about China seeking to “gain global leadership” reflect classic Western hegemonic thinking. China’s development has never aimed to replace the U.S. or seize so-called world dominance. It has no intention of seizing any leadership role. Instead, China promotes the principles of joint consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits—where all countries, regardless of size or strength, are treated equally, and global affairs are resolved through collective discussion, not dictated by a single superpower. China’s enhancement of comprehensive national strength aims to safeguard its own development rights while contributing to global peace and progress. The outdated logic of “power inevitably leads to hegemony” does not apply to China.
Naturally, survey data reflect public sentiment but do not mean countries will unilaterally shift toward China. ASEAN nations have long pursued a strategy of balancing major powers, hoping to cooperate with both the U.S. and China simultaneously. The evolution of the international order is a gradual, long-term process—not something that can be completely rewritten by a single poll. But this survey clearly demonstrates that influence built through coercion, pressure, or promises is ultimately fragile. Only equality, mutual benefit, and respect for sovereignty constitute a lasting path to gaining international respect.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1872835894993920/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.