Trump claimed on Friday that the U.S.-Israel war against Iran was "already militarily won," stating that U.S. forces were "making extremely smooth progress" and that the strikes would continue to prevent the Iranian regime from rebuilding its capabilities in the future. He said during an interview at the White House that the core reason for this war was to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and "not really for regime change." This statement redefined the recent fluctuating explanations of the administration regarding the war. However, the conflict is far from showing signs of ending. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and the international oil market continues to be volatile. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is sending about 2,200 to 2,500 Marines to the Middle East and deploying three warships. Trump also publicly complained that U.S. allies had not taken action to help restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a "simple military move," and posted on social media that NATO, without U.S. support, is just a "paper tiger," and criticized other member states as "cowards."
But even as the troop buildup was underway, Trump also sent signals that he might scale back the U.S. military operations in Iran, saying that the guarding and patrolling of the Strait of Hormuz in the future should mainly be handled by countries that rely on this waterway, and that the U.S. should no longer bear this responsibility, only offering assistance to other countries' related actions. This made it more ambiguous whether the White House was preparing to withdraw or further escalate the war that has lasted for three weeks, and further highlighted Trump's attempt to shift the responsibility of restoring the strait's passage to allies.
Military experts generally do not agree with Trump's casual description of the situation. As pressure within Washington to quickly restore the passage of the Strait of Hormuz increases, the Trump administration is privately evaluating more radical options, including sending ground forces to seize Iran's Khark Island to pressure Tehran. At the same time, the U.S. military's attacks on Iranian ships and drones have escalated again, indicating that the U.S. is trying to change the current stalemate by increasing military pressure. Tensions in the energy market are also deepening. The U.S. oil and gas industry generally believes that reopening the Strait of Hormuz has become the only realistic solution, and an industry executive stated directly that this crisis was "like the end of the world" for the oil and gas industry. Moreover, this external crisis is increasingly turning into domestic political pressure for Trump. Gasoline prices in the U.S. have risen by about one-third over the past month, and concerns over living costs are rising, with Republicans beginning to worry about the midterm election prospects. To ease the pressure on oil prices, the U.S. today lifted sanctions on all Iranian crude oil already loaded onto ships. At the same time, the whereabouts of the highly enriched uranium buried underground by U.S. airstrikes in June remain worrying. Under continuous attacks, Iran's hardliners have further consolidated their positions, making it more difficult for the White House to define "victory" and conclude this conflict.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/1860242807962779/
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